Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The SoftBank NAV discount is historically high, which makes it appear optically attractive; despite this, we turn neutral on SoftBank group from our previous positive recommendation, due to its headwinds</li>
<li>JPY strength is a key challenge, especially since the new Japanese prime minister supports the BoJ normalising monetary policy; this means BoJ tightening whilst many other central banks are easing</li>
<li>Arm Holdings’ super premium valuation versus its peers is another potential headwind for SoftBank group shares and NAV, combined with the high correlation between Arm Holdings and SoftBank group shares</li>
</ul>


The SoftBank NAV discount is historically high, which makes it appear optically attractive; despite this, we turn neutral on SoftBank group from our previous positive recommendation, due to its headwinds
JPY strength is a key challenge, especially since the new Japanese prime minister supports the BoJ normalising monetary policy; this means BoJ tightening whilst many other central banks are easing
Arm Holdings’ super premium valuation versus its peers is another potential headwind for SoftBank group shares and NAV, combined with the high correlation between Arm Holdings and SoftBank group shares


Softbank (9984 JP) - Despite the High NAV Discount, We See Greater Headwinds; Downgrading to Neutral

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monolithic-power-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2088:1" rel="noopener">Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR US)</a> is a direct addition followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> which is a conditional addition but close to be direct. Demand is ~$1.8bn and ~3.5 ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dollar-tree-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10913:1" rel="noopener">Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US)</a> is a direct deletion with the highest exclusion probability as it is  ranked above the exit rank of 125. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/super-micro-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7921:1" rel="noopener">Super Micro Computer (SMCI US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moderna-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28744:1" rel="noopener">Moderna (MRNA US)</a> are amongst the prioritized constituents preventing eligible candidates from entering the index. </li>
</ul>



Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR US) is a direct addition followed by AppLovin (APP US) which is a conditional addition but close to be direct. Demand is ~$1.8bn and ~3.5 ADV.

Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US) is a direct deletion with the highest exclusion probability as it is  ranked above the exit rank of 125. 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI US) , ARM Holdings (ARM US) and Moderna (MRNA US) are amongst the prioritized constituents preventing eligible candidates from entering the index. 


Nasdaq-100 December 2024 Forecasts: Monolithic Power & AppLovin It; Dollar Tree Needs Watering

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The Wall Street Journal last week <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/amd-is-in-advanced-talks-to-buy-xilinx-11602205553" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices</a> is in advanced talks to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xilinx-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11600:1" rel="noopener">Xilinx</a> for a consideration of some $30 billion. It's a surprising move for the famously cautious and pragmatic CEO, Lisa Su. However, we think that the rumour is credible and, on balance, believe it to be a smart move on the part of AMD. Here's why. </p>

The Wall Street Journal last week reported that Advanced Micro Devices is in advanced talks to buy Xilinx for a consideration of some $30 billion. It's a surprising move for the famously cautious and pragmatic CEO, Lisa Su. However, we think that the rumour is credible and, on balance, believe it to be a smart move on the part of AMD. Here's why. 

AMD. Making Sense Of The Proposed Xilinx Acquisition.

<ul>
<li>The announcement of JPY500bn share buybacks is a positive for SoftBank group minority shareholders, and confirms the positive impact of the emergence of Elliott as an activist shareholder</li>
<li>The combination of the big weighting of Arm Holdings in the group’s equity value and the impact of the appreciating JPY has driven the NAV discount to very high levels</li>
<li>Much bad news seems priced in following the market turbulence; we remain positive on Softbank shares as they trade at a historically high 57%+ discount to the estimated NAV</li>
</ul>


The announcement of JPY500bn share buybacks is a positive for SoftBank group minority shareholders, and confirms the positive impact of the emergence of Elliott as an activist shareholder
The combination of the big weighting of Arm Holdings in the group’s equity value and the impact of the appreciating JPY has driven the NAV discount to very high levels
Much bad news seems priced in following the market turbulence; we remain positive on Softbank shares as they trade at a historically high 57%+ discount to the estimated NAV


Softbank (9984 JP): The NAV Discount High Offers an Investment Opportunity

AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Arm's revenue of $935M marks a 39.1% YoY increase, driven by a significant 70% rise in license revenue. Earnings of $0.40 exceeded expectations, reflecting a robust 67% YoY growth.</li>
<li>Arm's R&amp;D investments in AI workloads drive future royalty growth, with v9 and compute subsystems enhancing licensing value amid strong AI demand, particularly in data centers.</li>
<li>Shares dropped 13% as Q2 revenue guidance of $780M-$830M and FY25 revenue guidance of $3.8B-$4.1B were below market expectations.</li>
</ul>


Arm's revenue of $935M marks a 39.1% YoY increase, driven by a significant 70% rise in license revenue. Earnings of $0.40 exceeded expectations, reflecting a robust 67% YoY growth.
Arm's R&amp;D investments in AI workloads drive future royalty growth, with v9 and compute subsystems enhancing licensing value amid strong AI demand, particularly in data centers.
Shares dropped 13% as Q2 revenue guidance of $780M-$830M and FY25 revenue guidance of $3.8B-$4.1B were below market expectations.


Arm's Strong Growth Driven by License Revenue Surge, But Shares Drop 13% on Disappointing Guidance

United Kingdom

ARM Holdings designs and licenses semiconductor intellectual property (IP), including central processing unit (CPU) cores, graphics processing units (GPUs), and system IP. Its energy-efficient chip designs are widely used in smartphones, IoT devices, automotive systems, and computing infrastructure. The company is headquartered in Cambridge, United Kingdom, and was founded in 1990.

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ARM Holdings (ARM US)

Softbank (9984 JP) - Despite the High NAV Discount, We See Greater Headwinds; Downgrading to Neutral

SoftBank's high NAV discount may seem optically attractive, but headwinds have increased; JPY strength is on the rise and Arm Holdings' premium...

Victor Galliano

Nasdaq-100 December 2024 Forecasts: Monolithic Power & AppLovin It; Dollar Tree Needs Watering

MPWR and APP are the top candidates for inclusion with an average forecasted demand at nearly $2bn and 3.5 ADV, while DLTR and ILMN face a high...

Dimitris Ioannidis

AMD. Making Sense Of The Proposed Xilinx Acquisition.

If the ~$5 billion (minus what it can get for ZT Systems manufacturing operations) AMD is paying to get its hands on 1,000 data center engineers...

William Keating

Softbank (9984 JP): The NAV Discount High Offers an Investment Opportunity

The combination of the big weighting of Arm Holdings in the SoftBank group’s equity value and the appreciation of JPY in the market turbulence is...

Victor Galliano

Arm's Strong Growth Driven by License Revenue Surge, But Shares Drop 13% on Disappointing Guidance

Arm reported Q1 revenue of $935M (+39.1% YoY) and EPS of $0.40 (+67% YoY). Despite beating expectations, shares fell 13% due to lower-than...

Mint Finance

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Softbank (9984 JP) - Despite the High NAV Discount, We See Greater Headwinds; Downgrading to Neutral

​SoftBank's high NAV discount may seem optically attractive, but headwinds have increased; JPY strength is on the rise and Arm Holdings' premium...

Victor Galliano

Nasdaq-100 December 2024 Forecasts: Monolithic Power & AppLovin It; Dollar Tree Needs Watering

​MPWR and APP are the top candidates for inclusion with an average forecasted demand at nearly $2bn and 3.5 ADV, while DLTR and ILMN face a high...

Dimitris Ioannidis

AMD. Making Sense Of The Proposed Xilinx Acquisition.

If the ~$5 billion (minus what it can get for ZT Systems manufacturing operations) AMD is paying to get its hands on 1,000 data center engineers...

William Keating

Softbank (9984 JP): The NAV Discount High Offers an Investment Opportunity

The combination of the big weighting of Arm Holdings in the SoftBank group’s equity value and the appreciation of JPY in the market turbulence is...

Victor Galliano

Arm's Strong Growth Driven by License Revenue Surge, But Shares Drop 13% on Disappointing Guidance

Arm reported Q1 revenue of $935M (+39.1% YoY) and EPS of $0.40 (+67% YoY). Despite beating expectations, shares fell 13% due to lower-than...

Mint Finance

SoftBank's high NAV discount may seem optically attractive, but headwinds have increased; JPY strength is on the rise and Arm Holdings' premium...

MPWR and APP are the top candidates for inclusion with an average forecasted demand at nearly $2bn and 3.5 ADV, while DLTR and ILMN face a high...