Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We also upgraded our near-term outlook to bullish on MSCI ACWI in our April 23, 2026 Int’l Compass.</li>
<li>Remain overweight Technology, our primary focus every single week since April 16. It's getting hard to find names near buy points. Elsewhere, we highlight opportunities within Discretionary, Industrials, and Transportation</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).
We also upgraded our near-term outlook to bullish on MSCI ACWI in our April 23, 2026 Int’l Compass.
Remain overweight Technology, our primary focus every single week since April 16. It's getting hard to find names near buy points. Elsewhere, we highlight opportunities within Discretionary, Industrials, and Transportation


Lockout Rally Continues; Yet Another Bullish Gap on ACWI-US; Crude Oil Top in Place

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Capital Markets

Beijing ESWIN Computing Technology / Equity Capital Markets

Beijing ESWIN Computing Technology (ESWIN HK)

<ul>
<li>Beijing ESWIN Computing Technology (1256 HK) is listing in Hong Kong on September 9th in an IPO, offering shares between $HK1.48 and $HK1.59 per share, raising up to $HK2.5 billion.</li>
<li>ESWIN is one of China's leading RISC-V chipmakers, placing it at the intersection of China's drive toward semiconductor self-sufficiency and the global shift away from proprietary ISA architectures.</li>
<li>The company's RISC-V focus differentiates it from ARM-based peers and aligns with Beijing's push for open-architecture semiconductor independence.</li>
</ul>


Beijing ESWIN Computing Technology (1256 HK) is listing in Hong Kong on September 9th in an IPO, offering shares between $HK1.48 and $HK1.59 per share, raising up to $HK2.5 billion.
ESWIN is one of China's leading RISC-V chipmakers, placing it at the intersection of China's drive toward semiconductor self-sufficiency and the global shift away from proprietary ISA architectures.
The company's RISC-V focus differentiates it from ARM-based peers and aligns with Beijing's push for open-architecture semiconductor independence.


HK IPO WATCH: Beijing ESWIN Computing Technology -  RISC-V Business !!

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Discussion of infrastructure capex as a percentage of US GDP by era, highlighting the current rate of 1.2%</li><li>Comparison of current bubble dynamics to past bubbles, noting that the current bubble is not as excessive as previous ones</li><li>Debate over whether the current investment cycle is a bubble or a strong investment cycle, with concerns about speculative investments and emotional factors leading to potential overvaluation in the future</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Discussion of infrastructure capex as a percentage of US GDP by era, highlighting the current rate of 1.2%Comparison of current bubble dynamics to past bubbles, noting that the current bubble is not as excessive as previous onesDebate over whether the current investment cycle is a bubble or a strong investment cycle, with concerns about speculative investments and emotional factors leading to potential overvaluation in the futureThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EP 129: Capex to the Moon 2.0! Bubble Debate, and QCOM and Arm Earnings

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place long as the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs.</li>
<li>Short-Term SPX support is at 6028-6059 and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P Mid Caps (IJH) also breaking above key resistances</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place long as the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs.
Short-Term SPX support is at 6028-6059 and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P Mid Caps (IJH) also breaking above key resistances


Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs

<ul><li>Strong quarter with big surprise on EPS and above-expectation guidance</li><li>Positive performance in PCs and automotive sectors, with design wins and partnerships</li><li>Concerns over competitive landscape and market expectations, but overall solid performance from Qualcomm and potential for growth opportunities in the future</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Strong quarter with big surprise on EPS and above-expectation guidancePositive performance in PCs and automotive sectors, with design wins and partnershipsConcerns over competitive landscape and market expectations, but overall solid performance from Qualcomm and potential for growth opportunities in the futureThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 104: Earnings Thoughts (QCOM, AMD, Arm) and Hypersaler CapEx Steady

United Kingdom

ARM Holdings designs and licenses semiconductor intellectual property (IP), including central processing unit (CPU) cores, graphics processing units (GPUs), and system IP. Its energy-efficient chip designs are widely used in smartphones, IoT devices, automotive systems, and computing infrastructure. The company is headquartered in Cambridge, United Kingdom, and was founded in 1990.

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ARM Holdings (ARM US)

Lockout Rally Continues; Yet Another Bullish Gap on ACWI-US; Crude Oil Top in Place

Lockout Rally Continues; Yet Another Bullish Gap on $ACWI; Crude Oil $USO Top in Place; Actionable Themes: Technology, Discretionary, Industrials,...

Vermilion Research

HK IPO WATCH: Beijing ESWIN Computing Technology - RISC-V Business !!

Beijing ESWIN Computing Technology (1256 HK) is listing in Hong Kong on September 9th in an IPO, offering shares between $HK1.48 and $HK1.59 per...

David Mudd

EP 129: Capex to the Moon 2.0! Bubble Debate, and QCOM and Arm Earnings

The current tech bubble in the US has some similarities to past bubbles but also unique characteristics, with infrastructure investment playing a...

The Circuit

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; $QQQ and $SPX Breaking to All-Time Highs; Russell 2000 $IWM and Mid Caps $IJH also breaking above...

Vermilion Research

Episode 104: Earnings Thoughts (QCOM, AMD, Arm) and Hypersaler CapEx Steady

Overall, Qualcomm had a strong quarter with a big surprise on EPS, profitability, and guidance, despite a dip in after hours trading, due to...

The Circuit

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