Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV US Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.</li>
<li>There will be 2 ADDs and 2 DELs for the March 2026 rebal event. We expect a one-way flow of US$2.64bn and a turnover of around 6% for March 2026.</li>
<li>There are few big impacts. None over a day's worth of volume. But there are several at US$300-900mm to trade at the close.</li>
</ul>


The MV US Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.
There will be 2 ADDs and 2 DELs for the March 2026 rebal event. We expect a one-way flow of US$2.64bn and a turnover of around 6% for March 2026.
There are few big impacts. None over a day's worth of volume. But there are several at US$300-900mm to trade at the close.


[Quiddity Index] MV US Semiconductor25 Mar26 Results: Two Index Changes; US$2.6bn One-Way

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> in March, plus a bunch of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$4.9bn. There are 2 stocks with over half a yard to trade.</li>
<li>The largest flows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micron-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13382:1" rel="noopener">Micron Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lam-research-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1116:1" rel="noopener">Lam Research</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applied-materials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:283:1" rel="noopener">Applied Materials</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">TSMC</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asml-holding-nv-b0092428-e3ec-4a92-bdd6-2f6eff7f1879" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28204:1" rel="noopener">ASML Holding</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) in March, plus a bunch of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$4.9bn. There are 2 stocks with over half a yard to trade.
The largest flows will be in Micron Technology, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Lam Research, Applied Materials, TSMC, ASML Holding, Broadcom and ARM Holdings.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: 2 Changes & US$4.9bn Trade

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Smartphones still account for roughly half of ARM’s business, while data centre revenue sits only in the high-teens percentage range, even after triple-digit growth.</li>
<li>CSS adoption is rising, but it remains in the teens as a share of royalties; not yet large enough to structurally reshape the mix</li>
<li>AI compute value migrates upstream into accelerators and full-stack CPU vendors; can Arm’s royalty model capture operating leverage or merely volume?</li>
</ul>


Smartphones still account for roughly half of ARM’s business, while data centre revenue sits only in the high-teens percentage range, even after triple-digit growth.
CSS adoption is rising, but it remains in the teens as a share of royalties; not yet large enough to structurally reshape the mix
AI compute value migrates upstream into accelerators and full-stack CPU vendors; can Arm’s royalty model capture operating leverage or merely volume?


Can ARM Convert AI Ubiquity Into Royalty Acceleration?

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Arm Ltd's Q3 fiscal 2026 results epitomize a mixed but largely optimistic outlook underlying the company’s strategic position in a rapidly evolving market landscape influenced by AI and data center growth.</li><li>Arm has recorded its fourth consecutive billion-dollar revenue quarter, achieving a new milestone with a 26% year-on-year increase to $1.24 billion.</li><li>This uptick can be credited to a robust 27% rise in royalties, driven by burgeoning demand in AI and data center infrastructure, and a 25% growth in licensing revenue.</li></ul>

Arm Ltd's Q3 fiscal 2026 results epitomize a mixed but largely optimistic outlook underlying the company’s strategic position in a rapidly evolving market landscape influenced by AI and data center growth.Arm has recorded its fourth consecutive billion-dollar revenue quarter, achieving a new milestone with a 26% year-on-year increase to $1.24 billion.This uptick can be credited to a robust 27% rise in royalties, driven by burgeoning demand in AI and data center infrastructure, and a 25% growth in licensing revenue.

Arm Holdings Is Powering the Edge AI Boom—And Royalty Revenues Are Set to Explode!

<ul><li>Arm Holdings has demonstrated significant growth and momentum in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, driven largely by increased demand for artificial intelligence (AI) computing across multiple sectors.</li><li>The company reported a revenue of $1.14 billion, representing a 34% increase compared to the previous year, marking its third consecutive quarter surpassing the billion-dollar mark.</li><li>This growth has been primarily attributed to record-high royalty revenues, which surged 21% year-over-year to $620 million, bolstered by demand in key markets such as data centers, smartphones, automotive, and IoT.</li></ul>

Arm Holdings has demonstrated significant growth and momentum in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, driven largely by increased demand for artificial intelligence (AI) computing across multiple sectors.The company reported a revenue of $1.14 billion, representing a 34% increase compared to the previous year, marking its third consecutive quarter surpassing the billion-dollar mark.This growth has been primarily attributed to record-high royalty revenues, which surged 21% year-over-year to $620 million, bolstered by demand in key markets such as data centers, smartphones, automotive, and IoT.

Arm Holdings: From Meta to Hyperscalers—How Strategic Partnerships Are Expanding Its AI Footprint!

United Kingdom

ARM Holdings designs and licenses semiconductor intellectual property (IP), including central processing unit (CPU) cores, graphics processing units (GPUs), and system IP. Its energy-efficient chip designs are widely used in smartphones, IoT devices, automotive systems, and computing infrastructure. The company is headquartered in Cambridge, United Kingdom, and was founded in 1990.

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ARM Holdings (ARM US)

[Quiddity Index] MV US Semiconductor25 Mar26 Results: Two Index Changes; US$2.6bn One-Way

There is US$2.6bn one-way to trade on the Market Vector US Semis 25 Index. There are several trades of several hundred million USD but nothing over...

Travis Lundy

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: 2 Changes & US$4.9bn Trade

ARM Holdings and Astera Labs replace Universal Display and Qorvo in March. Plenty of float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way...

Brian Freitas

Can ARM Convert AI Ubiquity Into Royalty Acceleration?

ARM's revenue is still heavily reliant on smartphones, with data center revenue growing but not yet a major contributor. CSS adoption is...

Mint Finance

Arm Holdings Is Powering the Edge AI Boom—And Royalty Revenues Are Set to Explode!

Arm Ltd's Q3 fiscal 2026 results epitomize a mixed but largely optimistic outlook underlying the company’s strategic position in a rapidly...

Baptista Research

Arm Holdings: From Meta to Hyperscalers—How Strategic Partnerships Are Expanding Its AI Footprint!

Arm Holdings has demonstrated significant growth and momentum in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, driven largely by increased demand for...

Baptista Research

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[Quiddity Index] MV US Semiconductor25 Mar26 Results: Two Index Changes; US$2.6bn One-Way

There is US$2.6bn one-way to trade on the Market Vector US Semis 25 Index. There are several trades of several hundred million USD but nothing over...

Travis Lundy

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: 2 Changes & US$4.9bn Trade

ARM Holdings and Astera Labs replace Universal Display and Qorvo in March. Plenty of float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way...

Brian Freitas

Can ARM Convert AI Ubiquity Into Royalty Acceleration?

​ARM's revenue is still heavily reliant on smartphones, with data center revenue growing but not yet a major contributor. CSS adoption is...

Mint Finance

Arm Holdings Is Powering the Edge AI Boom—And Royalty Revenues Are Set to Explode!

Arm Ltd's Q3 fiscal 2026 results epitomize a mixed but largely optimistic outlook underlying the company’s strategic position in a rapidly...

Baptista Research

Arm Holdings: From Meta to Hyperscalers—How Strategic Partnerships Are Expanding Its AI Footprint!

Arm Holdings has demonstrated significant growth and momentum in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, driven largely by increased demand for...

Baptista Research

ARM's revenue is still heavily reliant on smartphones, with data center revenue growing but not yet a major contributor. CSS adoption is...