Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the semiconductor market.</li><li>Significant capacity additions were brought on after the historic shortages due to COVID-19, and then demand wobbled as interest rates quickly rose.</li><li>Supply outpaced demand, and the market turned into a period of oversupply.</li></ul>

The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the semiconductor market.Significant capacity additions were brought on after the historic shortages due to COVID-19, and then demand wobbled as interest rates quickly rose.Supply outpaced demand, and the market turned into a period of oversupply.

Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a>'s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 25 October.</li>
<li>At the reported indicative IPO price of JPY 1890/share, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> will be valued at JPY 435bn (US$2.94bn).</li>
<li>The stock should be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TPX INDEX</a> at the close on 29 November where trackers will need to buy over 14% of the stock issued in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)'s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 25 October.
At the reported indicative IPO price of JPY 1890/share, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) will be valued at JPY 435bn (US$2.94bn).
The stock should be added to the TPX INDEX at the close on 29 November where trackers will need to buy over 14% of the stock issued in the IPO.


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO: Listing in October, TPX Inclusion in November, Global Indices Later

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There is downside risk to SoftBank’s NAV, due to valuations relating to Arm and the Vision Funds including LatAm; on aggregate, these holdings account for 70% of group equity value</li>
<li>We believe that Arm’s super-premium valuation is unsustainable; there is lack of transparency on the valuations relating to the unlisted Vision Fund holdings, especially in SVF2</li>
<li>We estimate that SoftBank shares trade at a 44% NAV discount, tighter than the average at the end of the last eight quarters; add to this Arm’s current over valuation</li>
</ul>


There is downside risk to SoftBank’s NAV, due to valuations relating to Arm and the Vision Funds including LatAm; on aggregate, these holdings account for 70% of group equity value
We believe that Arm’s super-premium valuation is unsustainable; there is lack of transparency on the valuations relating to the unlisted Vision Fund holdings, especially in SVF2
We estimate that SoftBank shares trade at a 44% NAV discount, tighter than the average at the end of the last eight quarters; add to this Arm’s current over valuation


SoftBank Group (9984 JP): More Downside Risk to the NAV than Upside Potential

<ul><li><p>A few quick takes before SEMICON. I'll have an ARM IPO piece coming.</p></li><li>The funniest meme on the internet is the incredulous “Nvidia is a fraud” meme. Given the recent rise in Nvidia’s stock, some brains are breaking on the internet.</li><li>The thread/train of thought seems to be spreading, and I’m here to try to stop it.</li></ul>

A few quick takes before SEMICON. I'll have an ARM IPO piece coming.The funniest meme on the internet is the incredulous “Nvidia is a fraud” meme. Given the recent rise in Nvidia’s stock, some brains are breaking on the internet.The thread/train of thought seems to be spreading, and I’m here to try to stop it.

Taiwan AI Conference Slides, Nvidia Fraud Hoax, Huawei, ARM IPO, and Intel

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

<ul>
<li>The worlds #1 producer of automotive MCUs has already launched a series of RISC-V solutions which replace Arm as the core ISA </li>
<li>A leading US semiconductor manufacturer has designed an FPGA based on RISC-V which has been chosen by NASA for use in the International Space Station</li>
<li>RISC-V has the potential to be seriously disruptive in the Automotive &amp; FPGA segments, and that's just for starters.</li>
</ul>


The worlds #1 producer of automotive MCUs has already launched a series of RISC-V solutions which replace Arm as the core ISA 
A leading US semiconductor manufacturer has designed an FPGA based on RISC-V which has been chosen by NASA for use in the International Space Station
RISC-V has the potential to be seriously disruptive in the Automotive &amp; FPGA segments, and that's just for starters.


RISC-V. Two Blue-Chip Names Betting Big On A Bright Future For The Upstart ISA

United Kingdom

Arm Holdings US, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, designs chips used in a range of electronic products. Arm Holdings serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

ARM Holdings (ARM US)

Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence

Its time to jog your memory. We've gone through the downturn, what does an upturn look like? The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the...

Fabricated Knowledge

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO: Listing in October, TPX Inclusion in November, Global Indices Later

Kokusai Electric starts trading today. Initial passive demand will come from TOPIX trackers next month. Flow from global passive trackers will come...

Brian Freitas

SoftBank Group (9984 JP): More Downside Risk to the NAV than Upside Potential

SoftBank trades at a 44% discount to the NAV; it has downside risk due to high market valuations of Arm and the unlisted SVF holdings lack...

Victor Galliano

Taiwan AI Conference Slides, Nvidia Fraud Hoax, Huawei, ARM IPO, and Intel

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut vitae lectus quis felis volutpat volutpat Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur...

Fabricated Knowledge

RISC-V. Two Blue-Chip Names Betting Big On A Bright Future For The Upstart ISA

RISC-V has the potential to be seriously disruptive in the Automotive & FPGA segments, and that's just for starters. The floodgates are beginning...

William Keating

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence

Its time to jog your memory. We've gone through the downturn, what does an upturn look like? The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the...

Fabricated Knowledge

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO: Listing in October, TPX Inclusion in November, Global Indices Later

Kokusai Electric starts trading today. Initial passive demand will come from TOPIX trackers next month. Flow from global passive trackers will come...

Brian Freitas

SoftBank Group (9984 JP): More Downside Risk to the NAV than Upside Potential

​SoftBank trades at a 44% discount to the NAV; it has downside risk due to high market valuations of Arm and the unlisted SVF holdings lack...

Victor Galliano

Taiwan AI Conference Slides, Nvidia Fraud Hoax, Huawei, ARM IPO, and Intel

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut vitae lectus quis felis volutpat volutpat Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur...

Fabricated Knowledge

RISC-V. Two Blue-Chip Names Betting Big On A Bright Future For The Upstart ISA

RISC-V has the potential to be seriously disruptive in the Automotive & FPGA segments, and that's just for starters. The floodgates are beginning...

William Keating

SoftBank trades at a 44% discount to the NAV; it has downside risk due to high market valuations of Arm and the unlisted SVF holdings lack...