IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (1822695D US)</a> is the world’s most widely licensed and deployed processor. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> seeks to raise about US$6-10 billion by listing ARM on Nasdaq.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/arm-holdings-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:111238" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/arm-holdings-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:111471" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that the rumoured target valuation of US$60-70 billion is unjustified. Our base-case DCF valuation is US$44.0 billion. </li>
</ul>



ARM Holdings (1822695D US) is the world’s most widely licensed and deployed processor. Softbank Group (9984 JP) seeks to raise about US$6-10 billion by listing ARM on Nasdaq.
We previously discussed the IPO in ARM Holdings IPO: The Bull Case and ARM Holdings IPO: The Bear Case. 
Our valuation analysis suggests that the rumoured target valuation of US$60-70 billion is unjustified. Our base-case DCF valuation is US$44.0 billion. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (1822695D US)</a> is the world’s most widely licensed and deployed processor. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> seeks to raise about US$6-10 billion by listing ARM on Nasdaq.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/arm-holdings-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:111238" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on the deteriorating annualized contract value trajectory, declining ARM-powered chip shipments and revenue, ARM China overhang and red flag transactions involving SoftBank.</li>
</ul>



ARM Holdings (1822695D US) is the world’s most widely licensed and deployed processor. Softbank Group (9984 JP) seeks to raise about US$6-10 billion by listing ARM on Nasdaq.
In ARM Holdings IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on the deteriorating annualized contract value trajectory, declining ARM-powered chip shipments and revenue, ARM China overhang and red flag transactions involving SoftBank.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (1822695D US)</a> is the world’s most widely licensed and deployed processor. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> is seeking to raise about US$6-10 billion by listing ARM on Nasdaq.   </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener"></a>Softbank Privatised ARM for US$32bn in 2016 and unsuccessfully tried to sell it to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> for US$40bn in 2022. In August, Softbank acquired Vision Fund's ARM stake.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on the growth in licensees, high customer switching costs, rising royalty rates, strong revenue visibility and a highly profitable and cash-generative business model.</li>
</ul>



ARM Holdings (1822695D US) is the world’s most widely licensed and deployed processor. Softbank Group (9984 JP) is seeking to raise about US$6-10 billion by listing ARM on Nasdaq.   

Softbank Privatised ARM for US$32bn in 2016 and unsuccessfully tried to sell it to NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) for US$40bn in 2022. In August, Softbank acquired Vision Fund's ARM stake.
The bull case rests on the growth in licensees, high customer switching costs, rising royalty rates, strong revenue visibility and a highly profitable and cash-generative business model.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> aims to raise around US$8-10bn via selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings</a>’ US IPO.</li>
<li>ARM develops and licences high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.</li>
<li>In this note, we compare its recent performance versus its performance prior to its privatisation and discuss the changes since then.</li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP) aims to raise around US$8-10bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings’ US IPO.
ARM develops and licences high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.
In this note, we compare its recent performance versus its performance prior to its privatisation and discuss the changes since then.


ARM Holdings Pre-IPO - Pre-Privatisation to Pre-Listing Changes - Slower Growth, Lower Margins

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>While Softbank is trying to complete the IPO of Arm in the next several weeks, many investors are likely to have concerns about valuations. </li>
<li>Arm Holdings generated sales of US$2.7 billion (down 0.9% YoY) and net profit of US$524 million (down 22.5% YoY) in FY 2023.</li>
<li>In order for the valuation of Arm to reach US$60 billion, this would imply a significant premium multiple to the comps. </li>
</ul>


While Softbank is trying to complete the IPO of Arm in the next several weeks, many investors are likely to have concerns about valuations. 
Arm Holdings generated sales of US$2.7 billion (down 0.9% YoY) and net profit of US$524 million (down 22.5% YoY) in FY 2023.
In order for the valuation of Arm to reach US$60 billion, this would imply a significant premium multiple to the comps. 


United Kingdom

Arm Holdings US, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, designs chips used in a range of electronic products. Arm Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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ARM Holdings (ARM US)

ARM Holdings IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the rumoured target valuation of US$60-70 billion is unjustified. Our base-case DCF valuation is US$44.0 billion.

Arun George

ARM Holdings IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on the deteriorating ACV trajectory, declining ARM-powered chip shipments and revenue, ARM China overhang and red flag...

Arun George

ARM Holdings IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on the growth in licensees, high customer switching costs, rising royalty rates, strong revenue visibility and a highly...

Arun George

ARM Holdings Pre-IPO - Pre-Privatisation to Pre-Listing Changes - Slower Growth, Lower Margins

Softbank Group aims to raise around US$8-10bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings’ US IPO. In this note, we compare its recent...

Sumeet Singh

ARM Holdings IPO Preview

While Softbank is trying to complete the IPO of Arm in the next several weeks, many investors are likely to have concerns about valuations.

Douglas Kim

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