Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyoda-gosei-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20125:1" rel="noopener">Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)</a> announced a deal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashimori-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13918:1" rel="noopener">Ashimori Industry (3526 JP)</a> at 1.000x book value after writedowns. That was not a coincidence.</li>
<li>The takeover is cheap for what it is. No synergies were counted. But it wasn't truly offensive. MURAKAMI Takateru aimed an activist broadside, bought 19.73% across four entities. Then stopped. </li>
<li>The Bidder lowered the Tender Offer Minimum from 2.3081mm shares (38.29%) to 1.8001mm shares (29.86%). Shares dropped. As of 24-Sep, 2,111,226 shares had been tendered. This looks done. Maybe. </li>
</ul>


In August, Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) announced a deal for Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) at 1.000x book value after writedowns. That was not a coincidence.
The takeover is cheap for what it is. No synergies were counted. But it wasn't truly offensive. MURAKAMI Takateru aimed an activist broadside, bought 19.73% across four entities. Then stopped. 
The Bidder lowered the Tender Offer Minimum from 2.3081mm shares (38.29%) to 1.8001mm shares (29.86%). Shares dropped. As of 24-Sep, 2,111,226 shares had been tendered. This looks done. Maybe. 


[Japan M&A/Activism] Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) Minimum Lower, May Be a Tough Call

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyoda-gosei-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20125:1" rel="noopener">Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)</a> has lowered its minimum tendering condition but kept its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashimori-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13918:1" rel="noopener">Ashimori Industry (3526 JP)</a> tender offer unchanged at JPY4,140.</li>
<li>The lowered minimum tendering condition, which would be met based on acceptances as of 24 September, would also enable the share consolidation vote to pass based on AGM voting trends. </li>
<li>Takateru Murakami has been left high and dry and will likely pursue appraisal rights. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread is 0.6%/10.8%.</li>
</ul>



Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) has lowered its minimum tendering condition but kept its Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) tender offer unchanged at JPY4,140.
The lowered minimum tendering condition, which would be met based on acceptances as of 24 September, would also enable the share consolidation vote to pass based on AGM voting trends. 
Takateru Murakami has been left high and dry and will likely pursue appraisal rights. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread is 0.6%/10.8%.


Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Finish Line in Sight as the Minimum Tendering Condition Is Lowered

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6261:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)</a> "MBO" was egregiously mis-priced. I was surprised the family did it but on 23 October, they increased their bid by 42.4%, from ¥2,050 to ¥2,919/share.</li>
<li>The stock was at ¥2,735 after activist Effissimo had built a 13% stake at ¥2365. The day after the announcement, the stock opened up through terms and continues to climb.</li>
<li>Effissimo responded 4 days later, buying 2% of voting rights as the stock climbed past ¥3,000, another 1% later. Now the stock is 8+% through new terms. They're not playing.</li>
</ul>


The Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) "MBO" was egregiously mis-priced. I was surprised the family did it but on 23 October, they increased their bid by 42.4%, from ¥2,050 to ¥2,919/share.
The stock was at ¥2,735 after activist Effissimo had built a 13% stake at ¥2365. The day after the announcement, the stock opened up through terms and continues to climb.
Effissimo responded 4 days later, buying 2% of voting rights as the stock climbed past ¥3,000, another 1% later. Now the stock is 8+% through new terms. They're not playing.


[Japan M&A/Activism] - Effissimo Keeps Buying Pacific Industrial (7250) Above New Terms

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>For Oct 2025, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$33bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~54%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For Oct 2025, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$33bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~54%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2025 Wrap: Hang Seng, SCSK, AUB, Sumitomo Densetsu, Genting Malaysia, ANE

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec (6594 JP)</a>'s deletion is a LOT of stock to sell. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ibiden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16630:1" rel="noopener">Ibiden (4062 JP)</a>'s Nikkei 225 inclusion is huge. It'll make the stock enormously squeezy for a long while.</li>
<li>Palliser has a point. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem (051910 KS)</a> should pare down its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-energy-solution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33464:1" rel="noopener">LG Energy Solution (373220 KS)</a> stake, and buy back shares. Yet, would/will management stubbornly swat away any such proposal?</li>
<li>The latest twist in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a> saga as FIRB looks set to ding the transaction if there is a possibility Cosette closes a manufacturing site in Adelaide.</li>
</ul>



Nidec (6594 JP)'s deletion is a LOT of stock to sell. The Ibiden (4062 JP)'s Nikkei 225 inclusion is huge. It'll make the stock enormously squeezy for a long while.
Palliser has a point. LG Chem (051910 KS) should pare down its LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) stake, and buy back shares. Yet, would/will management stubbornly swat away any such proposal?
The latest twist in the Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) saga as FIRB looks set to ding the transaction if there is a possibility Cosette closes a manufacturing site in Adelaide.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Nidec/Ibiden, LG Chem, Mayne Pharma, Jardine Matheson

Japan

Ashimori Industry Co., Ltd. manufactures automobile safety parts including seatbelts and air bags.  The Company also produces fire protection systems and emergency rescue equipment such as rescue ropes, heat-resistant vests, fire hoses, and portable toilets.

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Ashimori Industry (3526 JP)

[Japan M&A/Activism] Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) Minimum Lower, May Be a Tough Call

Toyoda Gosei saw MURAKAMI Fils buy a 19.7% stake in the early days, then he went quiet. TG extended for a looong 15 days, then lowered the minimum....

Travis Lundy