Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).</li>
</ul>


In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.
$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).


Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US Stocks fall as Dicks Sporting and Macy's raises concerns over US consumer; US Tells China to be more Transparent on Economy; Traders Betting on Blow Out NVIDIA</li>
<li>JAPAN:  NKY Futures -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 145.9;  Japan Defense Ministry to ask for (another) Record Budget; 2 trillion yen request for GX spend in FY24. </li>
<li>JAPAN X:  Hitachi Introduces Innovative Executive Compensation Plan Tied to Stock Performance Against Competitors. Interesting structure-lights a fire under senior management. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US Stocks fall as Dicks Sporting and Macy's raises concerns over US consumer; US Tells China to be more Transparent on Economy; Traders Betting on Blow Out NVIDIA
JAPAN:  NKY Futures -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 145.9;  Japan Defense Ministry to ask for (another) Record Budget; 2 trillion yen request for GX spend in FY24. 
JAPAN X:  Hitachi Introduces Innovative Executive Compensation Plan Tied to Stock Performance Against Competitors. Interesting structure-lights a fire under senior management. 


Ohayo Japan|US Stocks Fall on Consumer Fears; JAPAN X: Hitachi Inspires with Mgmt Incentive Scheme

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. </li>
<li>While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. 
While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.
Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.


MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Good news from Nike’s Q3 report, which bodes well for Asics March quarter</li>
<li>Why was Nike’s stock down? Margins were down 330bps on inventory mark downs</li>
<li>Running is recession proof according to the footwear makers themselves</li>
</ul>


Good news from Nike’s Q3 report, which bodes well for Asics March quarter
Why was Nike’s stock down? Margins were down 330bps on inventory mark downs
Running is recession proof according to the footwear makers themselves


ASICS (7936) | Running Is Recession Proof

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>Descente has improved profitability since being taken over by Itochu three years ago but much of the growth has come from overseas. </li>
<li>The Descente brand remains weak in Japan but Itochu has plans to rebuild the eponymous label by splitting it into two while creating several new brands.</li>
<li>The plans should help recover momentum in Japan and drive further expansion in China and even into Europe and the US.</li>
</ul>


Descente has improved profitability since being taken over by Itochu three years ago but much of the growth has come from overseas. 
The Descente brand remains weak in Japan but Itochu has plans to rebuild the eponymous label by splitting it into two while creating several new brands.
The plans should help recover momentum in Japan and drive further expansion in China and even into Europe and the US.


Japan

ASICS CORPORATION manufactures general sporting goods and equipment.  The Company's products, such as athletic shoes and sportswear, are distributed in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Asia.

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ASICS Corp (7936 JP)

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan|US Stocks Fall on Consumer Fears; JAPAN X: Hitachi Inspires with Mgmt Incentive Scheme

US Equities down on Consumer spending concerns; NKY Futures -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 145.9; Japan Defense Ministry to ask for (another) Record...

Mark Chadwick

MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

MSCI $ACWI Bullish Above $93, inverse head-and-shoulders breakout targets $110; EURO $STOXX 50 Holding At the Uptrend; Buys in Consumer...

Vermilion Research

ASICS (7936) | Running Is Recession Proof

Nike reported Q3 earnings for the Q ended February. Sales rose +14% to $12.4 b, above street estimates of $11.5b. On a currency-neutral basis,...

Mark Chadwick

Descente Puts on Some Pace

Japanese outdoor brands are on a roll. Descente, now part of the Itochu empire, is rebuilding its brand at home and overseas, with significant...

Michael Causton

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