Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Goldwin has big plans for both The North Face in the Japanese and Korean markets and for its own brand globally.</li>
<li>But there are worries about saturation for the former in Japan, slowing brand development, and lack of expertise in overseas markets to build its own brand.</li>
<li>Goldwin has had an amazing run but can it build a global brand? If it can, it will feed into high levels of demand for Japan-tech sports brands.</li>
</ul>


Goldwin has big plans for both The North Face in the Japanese and Korean markets and for its own brand globally.
But there are worries about saturation for the former in Japan, slowing brand development, and lack of expertise in overseas markets to build its own brand.
Goldwin has had an amazing run but can it build a global brand? If it can, it will feed into high levels of demand for Japan-tech sports brands.


Goldwin: 50% Growth in 5 Years? Possible but Some Challenges

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Asics is seeing robust D2C sales growth, now 40% of total sales, driving gross margins to 55.5% (+4.5 pp YoY) in 1H24.</li>
<li>High-Margin models and strong sales in Onitsuka Tiger and Sportsstyle categories support a forecasted 13% YoY sales increase in 2H24.</li>
<li>Asics' strategic transformation, focusing on structural reforms and emerging markets, to drive upgraded MTP though FY26.</li>
</ul>


Asics is seeing robust D2C sales growth, now 40% of total sales, driving gross margins to 55.5% (+4.5 pp YoY) in 1H24.
High-Margin models and strong sales in Onitsuka Tiger and Sportsstyle categories support a forecasted 13% YoY sales increase in 2H24.
Asics' strategic transformation, focusing on structural reforms and emerging markets, to drive upgraded MTP though FY26.


Asics (7936) | Q3 Preview; Revision of MTP

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Core inflation rates remain stubbornly high and real wages are still falling. </li>
<li>Surveys suggest one more major round of price hikes in October but the government still thinks prices will stabilise below its 2% target by the end of the year.</li>
<li>The increases are lowering consumer confidence – bad news for most retailers, although major discount chains are making hay while the sun, well, doesn’t shine.</li>
</ul>


Core inflation rates remain stubbornly high and real wages are still falling. 
Surveys suggest one more major round of price hikes in October but the government still thinks prices will stabilise below its 2% target by the end of the year.
The increases are lowering consumer confidence – bad news for most retailers, although major discount chains are making hay while the sun, well, doesn’t shine.


Japanese Prices Rise Again; 60% of Consumers Feeling the Pinch and Looking for Better Value

<ul>
<li>
 Strong Q2 performance: Asics delivered impressive profit growth and margin improvement, exceeding expectations with operating profit surging 119% YoY to 25 billion yen.</li>
<li>
 Market share gains: Asics continues outpacing Nike across key regions, with strong growth in Japan, Europe, China, and the US, driven by Sportstyle and Performance Running.</li>
<li>
 Bullish outlook, limited upside: Recent guidance revision and current FX rates cap near-term gains; stock trades at 19x NTM EV/EBIT with 15% upside to fair value.</li>
</ul>



 Strong Q2 performance: Asics delivered impressive profit growth and margin improvement, exceeding expectations with operating profit surging 119% YoY to 25 billion yen.

 Market share gains: Asics continues outpacing Nike across key regions, with strong growth in Japan, Europe, China, and the US, driven by Sportstyle and Performance Running.

 Bullish outlook, limited upside: Recent guidance revision and current FX rates cap near-term gains; stock trades at 19x NTM EV/EBIT with 15% upside to fair value.


Asics (7936) | Raceing Ahead—But Can They Keep Pace?

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>ARM +11% after a broker upgrade yesterday will see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> rebound sharply off heavily sold levels yesterday, despite its surprise Y500bn buyback.</li>
<li>Tech wide relief rally in the US sets the tone for a very strong day in Japan, helped by strong earnings by the likes of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">TEL (8035)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai (6525).</a>
</li>
<li>Jobs data saw leisure and powersports names in the US rally which should help the likes of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7411:1" rel="noopener">Yamaha Motor (7272 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8790:1" rel="noopener">KHI (7012 JP)</a> rebound sharply also.</li>
</ul>


ARM +11% after a broker upgrade yesterday will see Softbank Group (9984 JP) rebound sharply off heavily sold levels yesterday, despite its surprise Y500bn buyback.
Tech wide relief rally in the US sets the tone for a very strong day in Japan, helped by strong earnings by the likes of TEL (8035) and Kokusai (6525).

Jobs data saw leisure and powersports names in the US rally which should help the likes of Yamaha Motor (7272 JP) and KHI (7012 JP) rebound sharply also.


Japan Morning Connection: 9984 JP, 8035 JP, 6525 JP

Japan

ASICS CORPORATION manufactures general sporting goods and equipment.  The Company's products, such as athletic shoes and sportswear, are distributed in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Asia.

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ASICS Corp (7936 JP)

Goldwin: 50% Growth in 5 Years? Possible but Some Challenges

Goldwin aims to further expand The North Face while building a global brand of its own. There is very strong potential but it faces challenges due...

Michael Causton

Asics (7936) | Q3 Preview; Revision of MTP

Asics' direct-to-consumer sales growth boosts gross margins, with strong sales in high-margin models driving forecasted sales increase and...

Mark Chadwick

Japanese Prices Rise Again; 60% of Consumers Feeling the Pinch and Looking for Better Value

Japanese consumer markets have three big trends: higher prices/squeezed incomes, doubling of single households and more people feeling the pinch....

Michael Causton

Asics (7936) | Raceing Ahead—But Can They Keep Pace?

Asics posts strong Q2 results, outpacing Nike in key regions, but limited near-term upside due to guidance revision and FX rates.

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: 9984 JP, 8035 JP, 6525 JP

ARM stock surges after broker upgrade, Softbank Group rebounds, tech rally in US boosts Japan market, leisure and powersports names rally in US...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Goldwin: 50% Growth in 5 Years? Possible but Some Challenges

​Goldwin aims to further expand The North Face while building a global brand of its own. There is very strong potential but it faces challenges due...

Michael Causton

Asics (7936) | Q3 Preview; Revision of MTP

​Asics' direct-to-consumer sales growth boosts gross margins, with strong sales in high-margin models driving forecasted sales increase and...

Mark Chadwick

Japanese Prices Rise Again; 60% of Consumers Feeling the Pinch and Looking for Better Value

Japanese consumer markets have three big trends: higher prices/squeezed incomes, doubling of single households and more people feeling the pinch....

Michael Causton

Asics (7936) | Raceing Ahead—But Can They Keep Pace?

​Asics posts strong Q2 results, outpacing Nike in key regions, but limited near-term upside due to guidance revision and FX rates.

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: 9984 JP, 8035 JP, 6525 JP

​ARM stock surges after broker upgrade, Softbank Group rebounds, tech rally in US boosts Japan market, leisure and powersports names rally in US...

Andrew Jackson

Goldwin aims to further expand The North Face while building a global brand of its own. There is very strong potential but it faces challenges due...

Asics' direct-to-consumer sales growth boosts gross margins, with strong sales in high-margin models driving forecasted sales increase and...

Asics posts strong Q2 results, outpacing Nike in key regions, but limited near-term upside due to guidance revision and FX rates.

ARM stock surges after broker upgrade, Softbank Group rebounds, tech rally in US boosts Japan market, leisure and powersports names rally in US...