Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Outgoing Minister of Social Affairs Mariëlle Paul has decided that grocery delivery company Picnic, along with other e-commerce firms like Flink, will remain exempt from the collective labor agreement (CLA) for supermarkets.</li>
<li>This exemption, long contested in court, is crucial for Picnic. According to Picnic CEO Michiel Muller, applying the supermarket CAO would raise labor costs by around 40%, since his company does not rely heavily on lower-paid young workers, unlike traditional supermarkets.</li>
<li>Muller had even suggested that Picnic might leave the Netherlands without this dispensation.</li>
</ul>


Outgoing Minister of Social Affairs Mariëlle Paul has decided that grocery delivery company Picnic, along with other e-commerce firms like Flink, will remain exempt from the collective labor agreement (CLA) for supermarkets.
This exemption, long contested in court, is crucial for Picnic. According to Picnic CEO Michiel Muller, applying the supermarket CAO would raise labor costs by around 40%, since his company does not rely heavily on lower-paid young workers, unlike traditional supermarkets.
Muller had even suggested that Picnic might leave the Netherlands without this dispensation.


Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked European indices and the annual index review takes place in September every year.</li>
<li>We expect capping flows in the December 2026 quarterly rebal and no fast-entry/exit index changes.</li>
<li>We also expect no changes at the September 2027 annual review, though a few names are near the border and some large names are held back by the sector test.</li>
</ul>


The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked European indices and the annual index review takes place in September every year.
We expect capping flows in the December 2026 quarterly rebal and no fast-entry/exit index changes.
We also expect no changes at the September 2027 annual review, though a few names are near the border and some large names are held back by the sector test.


Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep27: No Changes Likely; Sector Test Holding Big Names Back

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Adyen | to nominate Niclas Neglen as Chief Financial Officer • ASM International | launches breakthrough Flowable Carbon technology • Heineken | loses UEFA Club Competitions Sponsorship to AB Inbev • InPost | offer declared unconditional • Shell | completes Gulf of America asset sale • Arcadis | WSP Global withdraws proposed offer for the company</li></ul>

In this edition: • Adyen | to nominate Niclas Neglen as Chief Financial Officer • ASM International | launches breakthrough Flowable Carbon technology • Heineken | loses UEFA Club Competitions Sponsorship to AB Inbev • InPost | offer declared unconditional • Shell | completes Gulf of America asset sale • Arcadis | WSP Global withdraws proposed offer for the company

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul>
<li>This is going to be a big week, so I’ll be as brief as I can while getting everything in one place.</li>
<li>Let’s start with Automotive, which is my favorite idea set right now. The problem is that the near-term results were much weaker than I expected, and it looks like the bottom is maybe in.</li>
<li>I was expecting another quarter of scrapping along the bottom, and Industrial weakness punched a new low.</li>
</ul>


This is going to be a big week, so I’ll be as brief as I can while getting everything in one place.
Let’s start with Automotive, which is my favorite idea set right now. The problem is that the near-term results were much weaker than I expected, and it looks like the bottom is maybe in.
I was expecting another quarter of scrapping along the bottom, and Industrial weakness punched a new low.


Earnings: NXPI, CDNS, TXN, SLAB, Alphawave, TSEM, KLAC, SK Hynix, MXL, STM, ASMI, VRT, UCTT

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Foxconn Industrial Internet / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." </li>
<li>We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.</li>
<li>Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.</li>
</ul>


Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." 
We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.
Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.


Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Netherlands

ASM International N.V. develops, manufactures, markets, and services machines used to produce semiconductors.  The Company manufactures machines that process silicon wafers, and assemble and package semiconductors.  ASM operates in Europe, the United States, Japan, and elsewhere in Asia.

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Asm International Nv (ASM NA)

What's New(s) in Amsterdam

Outgoing Minister of Social Affairs Mariëlle Paul has decided that grocery delivery company Picnic, along with other e-commerce firms like Flink,...

The IDEA!

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep27: No Changes Likely; Sector Test Holding Big Names Back

We see potential ADD RWE GR close to the border for September 2027, but many things could shake up the rankings between now and the base date at...

Afridi Reyal

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 23 September (Adyen | ASM Int'l | Heineken | InPost | Shell | Arcadis)

In this edition: • Adyen | to nominate Niclas Neglen as Chief Financial Officer • ASM International | launches breakthrough Flowable Carbon...

The IDEA!

Earnings: NXPI, CDNS, TXN, SLAB, Alphawave, TSEM, KLAC, SK Hynix, MXL, STM, ASMI, VRT, UCTT

This is going to be a big week, so I’ll be as brief as I can while getting everything in one place. Let’s start with Automotive, which is my...

Fabricated Knowledge

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight $FEZ $STOXX; Europe Still Bullish From a Price Perspective; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI $EEM; Supports...

Vermilion Research

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