Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • ASM International | 25Q4 revenue and bookings well ahead of its guidance – guides for healthy revenue growth in 26Q1 • InPost | Orlen Paczka doubled its volume in FY25 • Corporate Agenda | week 4 – 10</li></ul>

In this edition: • ASM International | 25Q4 revenue and bookings well ahead of its guidance – guides for healthy revenue growth in 26Q1 • InPost | Orlen Paczka doubled its volume in FY25 • Corporate Agenda | week 4 – 10

What's News in Amsterdam - 19 January (ASM Int'l | InPost | Corporate Agenda)

<ul><li>In this edition: • Adyen | strong net revenue growth and take rate, both ahead of expectations • ASM International | clearly better than expected 25Q3 results, however, order intake well below consensus • InPost | High Court to rule on legal ownership dispute regarding Yodel • Philips | received warning letter from FDA after inspection at three facilities • Corbion | solid 25Q3 results – reiterates FY25 outlook guidance • PostNL/DHL/InPost | reliability of parcel delivery in the Netherlands is deteriorating • Dutch banking sector | Argenta believed to be interested in buying NIBC • Dutch General Elections | polls are predicting a close finish</li></ul>

In this edition: • Adyen | strong net revenue growth and take rate, both ahead of expectations • ASM International | clearly better than expected 25Q3 results, however, order intake well below consensus • InPost | High Court to rule on legal ownership dispute regarding Yodel • Philips | received warning letter from FDA after inspection at three facilities • Corbion | solid 25Q3 results – reiterates FY25 outlook guidance • PostNL/DHL/InPost | reliability of parcel delivery in the Netherlands is deteriorating • Dutch banking sector | Argenta believed to be interested in buying NIBC • Dutch General Elections | polls are predicting a close finish

ASM International NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We also upgraded our near-term outlook to bullish on MSCI ACWI in our April 23, 2026 Int’l Compass.</li>
<li>Remain overweight Technology, our primary focus every single week since April 16. It's getting hard to find names near buy points. Elsewhere, we highlight opportunities within Discretionary, Industrials, and Transportation</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).
We also upgraded our near-term outlook to bullish on MSCI ACWI in our April 23, 2026 Int’l Compass.
Remain overweight Technology, our primary focus every single week since April 16. It's getting hard to find names near buy points. Elsewhere, we highlight opportunities within Discretionary, Industrials, and Transportation


Lockout Rally Continues; Yet Another Bullish Gap on ACWI-US; Crude Oil Top in Place

Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked European indices and the annual index review takes place in September every year.</li>
<li>The results of the market consultation were announced on 2nd October 2026, and three methodology changes will be phased in between September 2027 and September 2029.</li>
<li>There could be 3 ADDs and 3 DELs to the index if the supersector coverage removal were applied to the latest rankings.</li>
</ul>


The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked European indices and the annual index review takes place in September every year.
The results of the market consultation were announced on 2nd October 2026, and three methodology changes will be phased in between September 2027 and September 2029.
There could be 3 ADDs and 3 DELs to the index if the supersector coverage removal were applied to the latest rankings.


Quiddity ES50 Sep27: Market Consultation Impact; Supersector Test Over; Big Names In by 2029

ASE Technology Holding   / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX (up from 6480-6520) and $141.50 on ACWI-US (up from $134-135.70) continue to hold.</li>
<li>Signs of impending upside are evident with the ACWI-US and all the other MSCI global indexes (MSCI EAFE, ACWI ex-US, EM) breaking out (more on that below).</li>
<li>Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since our 5/14/25 Compass. Actionable themes include Technology and Industrials, focused in EM, Europe, and Japan.</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX (up from 6480-6520) and $141.50 on ACWI-US (up from $134-135.70) continue to hold.
Signs of impending upside are evident with the ACWI-US and all the other MSCI global indexes (MSCI EAFE, ACWI ex-US, EM) breaking out (more on that below).
Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since our 5/14/25 Compass. Actionable themes include Technology and Industrials, focused in EM, Europe, and Japan.


Breakouts Galore in All MSCI Global Indexes; Bullish Outlook Intact

Netherlands

ASM International N.V. develops, manufactures, markets, and services machines used to produce semiconductors.  The Company manufactures machines that process silicon wafers, and assemble and package semiconductors.  ASM operates in Europe, the United States, Japan, and elsewhere in Asia.

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Asm International Nv (ASM NA)

What's News in Amsterdam - 19 January (ASM Int'l | InPost | Corporate Agenda)

In this edition: • ASM International | 25Q4 revenue and bookings well ahead of its guidance – guides for healthy revenue growth in 26Q1 • InPost |...

The IDEA!

ASM International NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In this edition: • Adyen | strong net revenue growth and take rate, both ahead of expectations • ASM International | clearly better than expected...

The IDEA!

Lockout Rally Continues; Yet Another Bullish Gap on ACWI-US; Crude Oil Top in Place

Lockout Rally Continues; Yet Another Bullish Gap on $ACWI; Crude Oil $USO Top in Place; Actionable Themes: Technology, Discretionary, Industrials,...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity ES50 Sep27: Market Consultation Impact; Supersector Test Over; Big Names In by 2029

Removing the supersector rule is a HUGE change to the index. Société Générale, ASM International and Assicurazioni Generali are the biggest...

Afridi Reyal

Breakouts Galore in All MSCI Global Indexes; Bullish Outlook Intact

Breakouts Galore in All MSCI Global Indexes (MSCI $ACWI $ACWX $EFA and $EEM) and tons of countries; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight...

Vermilion Research

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