Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global MSCI indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) are pulling back following recent breakouts to multi-year highs. Europe, Japan also pulling back to uptrend supports.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch-discussed in our May 23, 2024 Int'l Compass-include $110.50 on ACWI-US, $53.50 on ACWX-US, $80 on EFA-US, and $41-42 on EEM-US; buy this pullback. </li>
<li>As long as these supports hold, we anticipate significantly higher prices ahead. Combination of supports holding and healthy market dynamics continues to validate our bullish outlook on global equities.</li>
</ul>


Global MSCI indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) are pulling back following recent breakouts to multi-year highs. Europe, Japan also pulling back to uptrend supports.
Short-Term supports to watch-discussed in our May 23, 2024 Int'l Compass-include $110.50 on ACWI-US, $53.50 on ACWX-US, $80 on EFA-US, and $41-42 on EEM-US; buy this pullback. 
As long as these supports hold, we anticipate significantly higher prices ahead. Combination of supports holding and healthy market dynamics continues to validate our bullish outlook on global equities.


Buy the Pullback; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy; Buys in Tech, Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>New multi-year highs on the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes -- combined with overwhelmingly healthy market dynamics -- validates our bullish outlook on global equities.</li>
<li>We continue to view the latest 5-6% pullback on $ACWI as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market, and we expect higher prices ahead.</li>
<li>Global Energy Sector appears to be topping, and Materials could be next. We highlight buys in Technology (quickly becoming leadership again) and Consumer Discretionary/Retail </li>
</ul>


New multi-year highs on the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes -- combined with overwhelmingly healthy market dynamics -- validates our bullish outlook on global equities.
We continue to view the latest 5-6% pullback on $ACWI as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market, and we expect higher prices ahead.
Global Energy Sector appears to be topping, and Materials could be next. We highlight buys in Technology (quickly becoming leadership again) and Consumer Discretionary/Retail 


Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs; Global Energy Sector Deteriorating, Is Materials Next?

<ul>
<li>A pullback in global equities is underway following steep uptrend violations on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EURO STOXX 50. Both are 4-5% off their highs; further downside may be limited.</li>
<li>Several 5%-10% pullbacks are to be expected in any given year, particularly after the historic 5-month rallies, so we view this as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market.</li>
<li>ACWI-US is currently testing important support at $105; if this area were to break, next major supports are $102 and $99; this is where we would be buying.</li>
</ul>


A pullback in global equities is underway following steep uptrend violations on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EURO STOXX 50. Both are 4-5% off their highs; further downside may be limited.
Several 5%-10% pullbacks are to be expected in any given year, particularly after the historic 5-month rallies, so we view this as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market.
ACWI-US is currently testing important support at $105; if this area were to break, next major supports are $102 and $99; this is where we would be buying.


Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index / Technical Analysis

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

<ul>
<li>Throughout 2024 we've discussed the theme of more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, the latest being the UK's FTSE 100, South Korea's KOSPI, and Norway's Oslo OBX.</li>
<li>This is classic bull market behavior. The long list of breakouts discussed throughout 2024 include the MSCI EM, ACWI, MSCI EAFE (in local currency), Israel, Germany, Sweden, France, and Ireland.</li>
<li>Another important thing to note is that none of these breakouts are failing; they all remain above their major breakout levels, a very bullish sign. We remain bullish.</li>
</ul>


Throughout 2024 we've discussed the theme of more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, the latest being the UK's FTSE 100, South Korea's KOSPI, and Norway's Oslo OBX.
This is classic bull market behavior. The long list of breakouts discussed throughout 2024 include the MSCI EM, ACWI, MSCI EAFE (in local currency), Israel, Germany, Sweden, France, and Ireland.
Another important thing to note is that none of these breakouts are failing; they all remain above their major breakout levels, a very bullish sign. We remain bullish.


More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; FTSE 100, KOSPI, and Oslo OBX Breaking Out

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.
We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.


Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Netherlands

ASM International N.V. develops, manufactures, markets, and services machines used to produce semiconductors.  The Company manufactures machines that process silicon wafers, and assemble and package semiconductors.  ASM operates in Europe, the United States, Japan, and elsewhere in Asia.

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Asm International Nv (ASM NA)

Buy the Pullback; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy; Buys in Tech, Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities

Buy the Pullbacks in $EFA $ACWX as they hold above $80 and $53.50 supports; Europe and Japan also buyable pullbacks to uptrend supports; Market...

Vermilion Research

Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs; Global Energy Sector Deteriorating, Is Materials Next?

There are few things more bullish than Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs $ACWI $ACWX $EFA $EEM; Buys in Tech $TSM; Global Energy Sector...

Vermilion Research

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; FTSE 100, KOSPI, and Oslo OBX Breaking Out

Bullish Outlook Intact; More Countries Breaking Out, including UK's FTSE 100, South Korea's KOSPI, and Norway's Oslo OBX; Buys in global...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Bullish Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over, 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX Rolling Over; More Global Indexes Breaking Out (Israel, Germany, Sweden). Buys...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

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Buy the Pullback; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy; Buys in Tech, Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities

Buy the Pullbacks in $EFA $ACWX as they hold above $80 and $53.50 supports; Europe and Japan also buyable pullbacks to uptrend supports; Market...

Vermilion Research

Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs; Global Energy Sector Deteriorating, Is Materials Next?

There are few things more bullish than Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs $ACWI $ACWX $EFA $EEM; Buys in Tech $TSM; Global Energy Sector...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors

Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Commodities Testing Resistance; Buys in Global Defensives (Staples, Utilities, Telecomm), Commodity...

Vermilion Research

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; FTSE 100, KOSPI, and Oslo OBX Breaking Out

Bullish Outlook Intact; More Countries Breaking Out, including UK's FTSE 100, South Korea's KOSPI, and Norway's Oslo OBX; Buys in global...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Bullish Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over, 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX Rolling Over; More Global Indexes Breaking Out (Israel, Germany, Sweden). Buys...

Vermilion Research