Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>We provide a timeline and analysis of key measures from May 2019 to December 2022.</li>
<li>How successive tightening steps led to a critical consolidation in October 2022.</li>
<li>Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.</li>
</ul>


We provide a timeline and analysis of key measures from May 2019 to December 2022.
How successive tightening steps led to a critical consolidation in October 2022.
Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.


China Semiconductor Restrictions: How the Vice Is Becoming Tighter and Tighter

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Dutch Telegraaf newspaper reports that Substrate, a US-based start-up founded in 2022, aims to challenge ASML’s dominance in advanced chip machinery.</li>
<li>Unlike ASML’s extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, Substrate uses beams from a mini-particle accelerator, claiming this method can produce smaller, cheaper chips.</li>
<li>The company intends not only to sell the machines but also to manufacture chips in-house at a US facility within a few years.</li>
</ul>


Dutch Telegraaf newspaper reports that Substrate, a US-based start-up founded in 2022, aims to challenge ASML’s dominance in advanced chip machinery.
Unlike ASML’s extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, Substrate uses beams from a mini-particle accelerator, claiming this method can produce smaller, cheaper chips.
The company intends not only to sell the machines but also to manufacture chips in-house at a US facility within a few years.


Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Silicon valley startup Substrate made waves two weeks ago when they emerged from stealth mode to announce a revolutionary new tool they claim will rival ASML’s EUV lithography capability</li>
<li>Substrate simultaneously plans to build next-generation semiconductor fabs to return America to dominance in semiconductor production and will use their technology—a new form of advanced X-ray lithography—to power them.</li>
<li>For a three year old startup, whos CEO has zero documented experience of semiconductors or lithography, these are bold claims indeed. This should be interesting!</li>
</ul>


Silicon valley startup Substrate made waves two weeks ago when they emerged from stealth mode to announce a revolutionary new tool they claim will rival ASML’s EUV lithography capability
Substrate simultaneously plans to build next-generation semiconductor fabs to return America to dominance in semiconductor production and will use their technology—a new form of advanced X-ray lithography—to power them.
For a three year old startup, whos CEO has zero documented experience of semiconductors or lithography, these are bold claims indeed. This should be interesting!


Substrate. ASML, TSMC Slayer Or Ideological Pipe Dream?

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

<ul>
<li>Windows 10's End-of-Life Becomes Apple's Windfall as Second Fastest Growing Computer Brand</li>
<li>Eyes on Yageo Results Coming October 30 After 35% 1-Week Surge</li>
<li>China Tightens Rare Earth Grip: TSMC Says It's Prepared with Inventory</li>
</ul>


Windows 10's End-of-Life Becomes Apple's Windfall as Second Fastest Growing Computer Brand
Eyes on Yageo Results Coming October 30 After 35% 1-Week Surge
China Tightens Rare Earth Grip: TSMC Says It's Prepared with Inventory


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple's Macbook Windfall; Yageo's Rally; TSMC's Massive Rare Earth Stockpile

<ul>
<li>LRCX reported September 2025 quarter revenues of $5.32 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint, up 3% QoQ and up 27.7% YoY.</li>
<li>LRCX is forecasting current quarter revenues of $5.2 billion at the midpoint, slightly down sequentially, but up 18% YoY. In other words, the AI boost is coming, just not yet.</li>
<li>The elephant in the room was once again revenue mix from China which accounted for a whopping 43% of sales, up from 35% in the prior quarter. Oh my!</li>
</ul>


LRCX reported September 2025 quarter revenues of $5.32 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint, up 3% QoQ and up 27.7% YoY.
LRCX is forecasting current quarter revenues of $5.2 billion at the midpoint, slightly down sequentially, but up 18% YoY. In other words, the AI boost is coming, just not yet.
The elephant in the room was once again revenue mix from China which accounted for a whopping 43% of sales, up from 35% in the prior quarter. Oh my!


LRCX Q325. Solid Results, Outlook But China Exposure Is A Glaring Red Flag

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients worldwide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML US)

China Semiconductor Restrictions: How the Vice Is Becoming Tighter and Tighter

Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

What's News in Amsterdam

Dutch Telegraaf newspaper reports that Substrate, a US-based start-up founded in 2022, aims to challenge ASML’s dominance in advanced chip machinery.

The IDEA!

Substrate. ASML, TSMC Slayer Or Ideological Pipe Dream?

For a three year old startup, whos CEO has zero documented experience of semiconductors or lithography, these are bold claims indeed. This should...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple's Macbook Windfall; Yageo's Rally; TSMC's Massive Rare Earth Stockpile

Windows 10's end-of-life is benefiting Apple. Yageo's results ahead after a 35% surge, while TSMC is prepared for China's tightening grip on rare...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

LRCX Q325. Solid Results, Outlook But China Exposure Is A Glaring Red Flag

The elephant in the room was once again revenue mix from China which accounted for a whopping 43% of sales, up from 35% in the prior quarter. Oh my!

William Keating

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Semiconductor Restrictions: How the Vice Is Becoming Tighter and Tighter

Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

What's News in Amsterdam

Dutch Telegraaf newspaper reports that Substrate, a US-based start-up founded in 2022, aims to challenge ASML’s dominance in advanced chip machinery.

The IDEA!

Substrate. ASML, TSMC Slayer Or Ideological Pipe Dream?

For a three year old startup, whos CEO has zero documented experience of semiconductors or lithography, these are bold claims indeed. This should...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple's Macbook Windfall; Yageo's Rally; TSMC's Massive Rare Earth Stockpile

​Windows 10's end-of-life is benefiting Apple. Yageo's results ahead after a 35% surge, while TSMC is prepared for China's tightening grip on rare...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

LRCX Q325. Solid Results, Outlook But China Exposure Is A Glaring Red Flag

The elephant in the room was once again revenue mix from China which accounted for a whopping 43% of sales, up from 35% in the prior quarter. Oh my!

William Keating

Windows 10's end-of-life is benefiting Apple. Yageo's results ahead after a 35% surge, while TSMC is prepared for China's tightening grip on rare...