Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Positive Management tone, as always, but no material clarification on 2026 revenues: China down (back to “normal”), Low NA EUV increase, some High NA but that’s still  pre-production.</li>
<li>ASML has many qualities: monopoly, litho intensity increasing. Downside risks: how low China revenue go, is Mngt still double counting TSMC + Intel capacity, expectations for High NA too high?</li>
<li>ASML is a lot more expensive than AMD, NVDA, MU, SK, TSM for very low growth. I don't like Broadcom for same reason: better Price / Growth in AMD, NVDA.</li>
</ul>


Positive Management tone, as always, but no material clarification on 2026 revenues: China down (back to “normal”), Low NA EUV increase, some High NA but that’s still  pre-production.
ASML has many qualities: monopoly, litho intensity increasing. Downside risks: how low China revenue go, is Mngt still double counting TSMC + Intel capacity, expectations for High NA too high?
ASML is a lot more expensive than AMD, NVDA, MU, SK, TSM for very low growth. I don't like Broadcom for same reason: better Price / Growth in AMD, NVDA.


ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Q325 revenues of €7.5 billion, slightly down on the prior quarter and towards the bottom end of the guided range</li>
<li>Looking ahead, the company is forecasting fourth quarter revenues of €9.5 billion at the midpoint, a significant jump QoQ but again in line with prior expectations.</li>
<li>Mood music improved, 2026 revenues "not be below 2025", China sales soared to 42%, but will decline next year, 11% stake in Mistral gets ASML "closer to the AI world"</li>
</ul>


Q325 revenues of €7.5 billion, slightly down on the prior quarter and towards the bottom end of the guided range
Looking ahead, the company is forecasting fourth quarter revenues of €9.5 billion at the midpoint, a significant jump QoQ but again in line with prior expectations.
Mood music improved, 2026 revenues "not be below 2025", China sales soared to 42%, but will decline next year, 11% stake in Mistral gets ASML "closer to the AI world"


ASML Q325 Earnings In Line, Outlook More Positive Compared To Prior Quarter, Big Emphasis On AI

<ul>
<li>3Q25 small miss (OP -3% below Consensus), 4Q beat (11% above). 3Q saw large increase in China revenues (+54% QoQ) maybe Chinese Fabs concerned about US restrictions. EUV -21% QoQ.   </li>
<li>Last quarter Management mentioned “we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm at this stage”. Now: “ASML does not expect 2026 total sales to be below 2025".</li>
<li>Management maintains its 2030 targets “revenue between €44 billion and €60 billion, gross margin between 56% and 60%“. Nothing new to talk about.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 small miss (OP -3% below Consensus), 4Q beat (11% above). 3Q saw large increase in China revenues (+54% QoQ) maybe Chinese Fabs concerned about US restrictions. EUV -21% QoQ.   
Last quarter Management mentioned “we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm at this stage”. Now: “ASML does not expect 2026 total sales to be below 2025".
Management maintains its 2030 targets “revenue between €44 billion and €60 billion, gross margin between 56% and 60%“. Nothing new to talk about.


ASML: 3Q25 Small Miss, 4Q Guidance a Beat, Still No Visibility on 2026 “revenue Not Below 2025”

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>CPI came in soft as expected, but rate hike expectations are mixed due to the ongoing conflict</li>
<li>Hong Kong and China platform names are getting a bid as money rotates out of the "hot" markets</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
CPI came in soft as expected, but rate hike expectations are mixed due to the ongoing conflict
Hong Kong and China platform names are getting a bid as money rotates out of the "hot" markets


Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>CXMT Corp is launching an IPO of 6.69 to 7.69 billion shares to raise up to 66.6 billion yuan to expand its DRAM production.</li>
<li>As the world’s fourth-largest producer of DRAM, CXMT has emerged as Beijing’s primary opportunity to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.</li>
<li>CXMT is rapidly expanding capacity, with output projected to double by 2030.  Concurrently, the company is striving to control all four stages of chip production: design, manufacturing, testing, and packaging. </li>
</ul>


CXMT Corp is launching an IPO of 6.69 to 7.69 billion shares to raise up to 66.6 billion yuan to expand its DRAM production.
As the world’s fourth-largest producer of DRAM, CXMT has emerged as Beijing’s primary opportunity to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.
CXMT is rapidly expanding capacity, with output projected to double by 2030.  Concurrently, the company is striving to control all four stages of chip production: design, manufacturing, testing, and packaging. 


IPO WATCH China Semiconductors: CXMT - Gaining in the DRAM Battlefield

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients worldwide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML US)

ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Q325 Earnings In Line, Outlook More Positive Compared To Prior Quarter, Big Emphasis On AI

Mood music improved, 2026 revenues "not be below 2025", China sales soared to 42%, but will decline next year, 11% stake in Mistral gets ASML...

William Keating

ASML: 3Q25 Small Miss, 4Q Guidance a Beat, Still No Visibility on 2026 “revenue Not Below 2025”

ASML reports mixed results for Q3, better guidance for Q4. Management remains optimistic about future growth and maintains 2030 targets but can't...

Nicolas Baratte

Overview #69 - Tug of War

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the impact of soft CPI data on rate expectations & where the...

Rikki Malik

IPO WATCH China Semiconductors: CXMT - Gaining in the DRAM Battlefield

CXMT ignited a rush among retail investors as China’s memory giant opened books for an initial public offering to raise $9.8 billion, the second...

David Mudd

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ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

​ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Q325 Earnings In Line, Outlook More Positive Compared To Prior Quarter, Big Emphasis On AI

Mood music improved, 2026 revenues "not be below 2025", China sales soared to 42%, but will decline next year, 11% stake in Mistral gets ASML...

William Keating

ASML: 3Q25 Small Miss, 4Q Guidance a Beat, Still No Visibility on 2026 “revenue Not Below 2025”

​ASML reports mixed results for Q3, better guidance for Q4. Management remains optimistic about future growth and maintains 2030 targets but can't...

Nicolas Baratte

Overview #69 - Tug of War

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the impact of soft CPI data on rate expectations & where the...

Rikki Malik

IPO WATCH China Semiconductors: CXMT - Gaining in the DRAM Battlefield

CXMT ignited a rush among retail investors as China’s memory giant opened books for an initial public offering to raise $9.8 billion, the second...

David Mudd

ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...

ASML reports mixed results for Q3, better guidance for Q4. Management remains optimistic about future growth and maintains 2030 targets but can't...