Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Q225 WFE billing amounted to $33 billion, up 24% YoY and up 3% QoQ. China was the biggest spender with billings of $11.36 billion, +11% QoQ, albeit down 7% YoY</li>
<li>A US select committee on China WFE spending, published on October 7 last, highlights multiple gaps with existing US restrictions on China WFE and proposes nine separate remedies</li>
<li>Remedies include sweeping China country-wide bans, bans on related components, consumables &amp; deploying "incentives &amp; leverage" with allies so they follow suit. Still wondering about China's surprise rare earth move?</li>
</ul>


Q225 WFE billing amounted to $33 billion, up 24% YoY and up 3% QoQ. China was the biggest spender with billings of $11.36 billion, +11% QoQ, albeit down 7% YoY
A US select committee on China WFE spending, published on October 7 last, highlights multiple gaps with existing US restrictions on China WFE and proposes nine separate remedies
Remedies include sweeping China country-wide bans, bans on related components, consumables &amp; deploying "incentives &amp; leverage" with allies so they follow suit. Still wondering about China's surprise rare earth move?


Semiconductor WFE. China Retains #1 Spending Slot In Q225, US Mulls Yet Further Sweeping Sanctions

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>A pullback is finally underway following Trump's Friday tape bomb and the decisive loss of the 20-day MA on the SPX, though $ACWI is testing the 4-month uptrend at $136
</li>
<li>We are no longer near-term bullish which had been in place since our April 22 report, but we are still bullish intermediate-term and are buyers on pullbacks.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 4+ month uptrend (currently at $136), $134-$134.50, $131.50-$132, $130, $128, and $125-$126.</li>
</ul>


A pullback is finally underway following Trump's Friday tape bomb and the decisive loss of the 20-day MA on the SPX, though $ACWI is testing the 4-month uptrend at $136

We are no longer near-term bullish which had been in place since our April 22 report, but we are still bullish intermediate-term and are buyers on pullbacks.
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 4+ month uptrend (currently at $136), $134-$134.50, $131.50-$132, $130, $128, and $125-$126.


Stick With Global Technology; Pullback Phase Finally Here on $ACWI; Supports to Buy

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>We recommend selling FERRARI80 with a return of -2.8%, while opening new positions in ESTEE80, MUFG19, and SONY80.</li><li>The KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio gained slightly, up +0.38% from the previous day, supported by the rise in NVDA80 after the US government approved chip exports to the Middle East.</li><li>Our study using the KTX Fundamental USD/THB Tracker indicates that the baht is currently excessively weak.</li></ul>

We recommend selling FERRARI80 with a return of -2.8%, while opening new positions in ESTEE80, MUFG19, and SONY80.The KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio gained slightly, up +0.38% from the previous day, supported by the rise in NVDA80 after the US government approved chip exports to the Middle East.Our study using the KTX Fundamental USD/THB Tracker indicates that the baht is currently excessively weak.

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - October 10, 2025 (Eng.)

<ul><li>We recommend selling TOYOTA80 and POPMART80, with holding-period returns of +1.3% and –3.1%, respectively.</li><li>We also suggest initiating positions in ASML0 1 , a DR referencing ASML Holding N.V. listed on the Euronext Amsterdam, and MWG1 9 , a DR referencing Mobile World Investment Corporation listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange.</li><li>The average return of the KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio was nearly unchanged from the previous day (–0.08%).</li></ul>

We recommend selling TOYOTA80 and POPMART80, with holding-period returns of +1.3% and –3.1%, respectively.We also suggest initiating positions in ASML0 1 , a DR referencing ASML Holding N.V. listed on the Euronext Amsterdam, and MWG1 9 , a DR referencing Mobile World Investment Corporation listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange.The average return of the KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio was nearly unchanged from the previous day (–0.08%).

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - October 9, 2025 (Eng.)

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. Remain aggressively long/continue to expect more upside into year-end and the early2026.</li>
<li>Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking out from its 7-month base, above the crucial 5500 level, and RS is attempting to reverse its 5-month downtrend -- buy.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. Remain aggressively long/continue to expect more upside into year-end and the early2026.
Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking out from its 7-month base, above the crucial 5500 level, and RS is attempting to reverse its 5-month downtrend -- buy.


Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients worldwide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML US)

Semiconductor WFE. China Retains #1 Spending Slot In Q225, US Mulls Yet Further Sweeping Sanctions

Remedies like China country-wide bans, bans on related components, consumables & deploying "incentives & leverage" on allies so they follow suit....

William Keating

Stick With Global Technology; Pullback Phase Finally Here on $ACWI; Supports to Buy

Stick With Global Technology; Pullback Phase Finally Here on $ACWI $SPX Likely in 3%-7% Range; Supports to watch on $ACWI include $136, $134...

Vermilion Research

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - October 10, 2025 (Eng.)

The KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio gained slightly, up +0.38% from the previous day, supported by the rise in NVDA80 after the US government...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - October 9, 2025 (Eng.)

We recommend selling TOYOTA80 and POPMART80, with holding-period returns of +1.3% and –3.1%, respectively. We also suggest initiating positions in...

Krungthai XSpring

Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Europe EURO $STOXX 50 Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan $EWT, China $MCHI, Korea $EWY, and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

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