Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Cycle turning: Q1 FY25 marked the trough; Q2 guidance implies +30% revenue and +46% OP rebound, with Q3 set to extend the recovery.</li>
<li>Enterprise SSDs anchor profits: ~70–75% of EBITDA tied to AI/cloud workloads, cushioning volatility in PCs and smartphones.</li>
<li>Even after a ~50% rally since September, Kioxia trades at ~5–6× EV/EBITDA vs. peers at 9–12×; sponsor selldowns and NAND ASP volatility could test the rally.</li>
</ul>


Cycle turning: Q1 FY25 marked the trough; Q2 guidance implies +30% revenue and +46% OP rebound, with Q3 set to extend the recovery.
Enterprise SSDs anchor profits: ~70–75% of EBITDA tied to AI/cloud workloads, cushioning volatility in PCs and smartphones.
Even after a ~50% rally since September, Kioxia trades at ~5–6× EV/EBITDA vs. peers at 9–12×; sponsor selldowns and NAND ASP volatility could test the rally.


Kioxia (285A JP): Storage Name Still Cheap; Enterprise SSDs Anchor Recovery

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Nvidia takes a $5B stake in Intel and will co-develop custom x86 CPUs for data centers and RTX-integrated SoCs for PCs.</li>
<li>The phrasing of “fusion of two world-class platforms” signals ambitions beyond just product collaboration. </li>
<li>Intel shares surged +30% on the news, while AMD and Arm slumped; toolmakers like ASML and Synopsys rallied on expectations of fresh CapEx.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia takes a $5B stake in Intel and will co-develop custom x86 CPUs for data centers and RTX-integrated SoCs for PCs.
The phrasing of “fusion of two world-class platforms” signals ambitions beyond just product collaboration. 
Intel shares surged +30% on the news, while AMD and Arm slumped; toolmakers like ASML and Synopsys rallied on expectations of fresh CapEx.


What Is the Real Prize in Nvidia’s $5B Intel Bet?

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>DeepSeek has permanently changed the future of AI.  With its R1 model the company democratized AI much the same as Google did for search more than 20 years ago.</li>
<li>China's platform companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> have released their own AI models.</li>
<li>As China's AI industry is benefiting from DeepSeek's cost-effective innovations, the US hyperscalers are being questioned on their ability to justify their enormous AI investments, historical and projected investments.</li>
</ul>


DeepSeek has permanently changed the future of AI.  With its R1 model the company democratized AI much the same as Google did for search more than 20 years ago.
China's platform companies like Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) , Tencent (700 HK) , Baidu (9888 HK) , and Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) have released their own AI models.
As China's AI industry is benefiting from DeepSeek's cost-effective innovations, the US hyperscalers are being questioned on their ability to justify their enormous AI investments, historical and projected investments.


DeepSeek Reveals AI's Trillion Dollar Folly: Winners and Losers

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in September but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$3bn. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is the largest impact passive sell. </li>
<li>There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> at the close on Friday.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in September but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$3bn. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is the largest impact passive sell. 
There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) at the close on Friday.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

<ul><li>In this edition: • ABN Amro | NLFI to further reduce stake to approx. 20% • Ahold Delhaize | Delhaize to open 7 new supermarkets by early 2026 • ASML Holding | invests EUR 1.3bn in Mistral AI • X-FAB | presents its long-term financial ambition at its CMD • Household consumption | up 1.3% YoY in July</li></ul>

In this edition: • ABN Amro | NLFI to further reduce stake to approx. 20% • Ahold Delhaize | Delhaize to open 7 new supermarkets by early 2026 • ASML Holding | invests EUR 1.3bn in Mistral AI • X-FAB | presents its long-term financial ambition at its CMD • Household consumption | up 1.3% YoY in July

Sligro Food Group NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients worldwide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML US)

Kioxia (285A JP): Storage Name Still Cheap; Enterprise SSDs Anchor Recovery

Q1 FY25 trough marked, Q2 guidance shows strong revenue and OP rebound, Enterprise SSDs anchor profits, Kioxia trades at discount vs. peers...

Rahul Jain

What Is the Real Prize in Nvidia’s $5B Intel Bet?

Nvidia's $5B stake in Intel signals a partnership to develop custom x86 CPUs for data centres and RTX-integrated SoCs for PCs; Intel shares...

Mint Finance

DeepSeek Reveals AI's Trillion Dollar Folly: Winners and Losers

China's large tech firms made announcements about their AI chip advancements igniting a market rally. This shows China's efforts to develop...

David Mudd

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade

Capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.25% and a US$3bn trade for the SMH ETF in Sep. There will be more flows in the stocks...

Brian Freitas

Sligro Food Group NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In this edition: • ABN Amro | NLFI to further reduce stake to approx. 20% • Ahold Delhaize | Delhaize to open 7 new supermarkets by early...

The IDEA!

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52-week Range

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Kioxia (285A JP): Storage Name Still Cheap; Enterprise SSDs Anchor Recovery

​Q1 FY25 trough marked, Q2 guidance shows strong revenue and OP rebound, Enterprise SSDs anchor profits, Kioxia trades at discount vs. peers...

Rahul Jain

What Is the Real Prize in Nvidia’s $5B Intel Bet?

​Nvidia's $5B stake in Intel signals a partnership to develop custom x86 CPUs for data centres and RTX-integrated SoCs for PCs; Intel shares...

Mint Finance

DeepSeek Reveals AI's Trillion Dollar Folly: Winners and Losers

China's large tech firms made announcements about their AI chip advancements igniting a market rally. This shows China's efforts to develop...

David Mudd

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade

Capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.25% and a US$3bn trade for the SMH ETF in Sep. There will be more flows in the stocks...

Brian Freitas

Sligro Food Group NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In this edition: • ABN Amro | NLFI to further reduce stake to approx. 20% • Ahold Delhaize | Delhaize to open 7 new supermarkets by early...

The IDEA!

Q1 FY25 trough marked, Q2 guidance shows strong revenue and OP rebound, Enterprise SSDs anchor profits, Kioxia trades at discount vs. peers...

Nvidia's $5B stake in Intel signals a partnership to develop custom x86 CPUs for data centres and RTX-integrated SoCs for PCs; Intel shares...