Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASML Q226 net sales were €9.3 billion, up 6.4% from the €8.7 billion ASML booked in Q126 and up 21.2% from the €7.7 billion it reported a year earlier.</li>
<li>ASML expects Q3 2026 total net sales between €11.0 billion and €12.0 billion, and a gross margin between 55% and 57%</li>
<li>ASML announced 30% capacity increases for both low-NA EUV and DUV immersion tools for delivery in 2027. They are investigating a further 30% increase for both for 2028. Yikes!</li>
</ul>


ASML Q226 net sales were €9.3 billion, up 6.4% from the €8.7 billion ASML booked in Q126 and up 21.2% from the €7.7 billion it reported a year earlier.
ASML expects Q3 2026 total net sales between €11.0 billion and €12.0 billion, and a gross margin between 55% and 57%
ASML announced 30% capacity increases for both low-NA EUV and DUV immersion tools for delivery in 2027. They are investigating a further 30% increase for both for 2028. Yikes!


ASML Q2 2026. Massive Capacity Expansion Plans Leave Markets Unmoved. But Why?

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>The report from ASML Holding N.V. for the second quarter of 2026 reflects continued momentum in demand for its advanced lithography systems, supported by strong customer capex plans in both advanced logic and memory segments.</li><li>Total net sales reached €9.3 billion, exceeding guidance largely due to higher-than-expected Installed Base Management (IBM) sales, which grew to €2.8 billion—around €300 million above projections—primarily driven by additional upgrades.</li><li>Net system sales totaled €6.6 billion, split nearly evenly between logic (51%) and memory (49%), with EUV systems accounting for €3.8 billion of sales, including High-NA system contributions.</li></ul>

The report from ASML Holding N.V. for the second quarter of 2026 reflects continued momentum in demand for its advanced lithography systems, supported by strong customer capex plans in both advanced logic and memory segments.Total net sales reached €9.3 billion, exceeding guidance largely due to higher-than-expected Installed Base Management (IBM) sales, which grew to €2.8 billion—around €300 million above projections—primarily driven by additional upgrades.Net system sales totaled €6.6 billion, split nearly evenly between logic (51%) and memory (49%), with EUV systems accounting for €3.8 billion of sales, including High-NA system contributions.

ASML’s €3.8 Billion EUV Quarter Builds A Lithography Powerhouse!

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On April 2, 2026, a bipartisan group of US lawmakers introduced H.R. 8170, the Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware Act, or the MATCH Act. </li>
<li>Three weeks later, on April 22, the House Foreign Affairs Committee advanced it in what lawmakers called ”the largest significant export control mark-up in the history of Congress.”</li>
<li>If enacted, the immersion DUV ban will deal a serious blow to China's semiconductor ambitions in the medium term. It will also greatly accelerate Chinese efforts to develop their own... </li>
</ul>


On April 2, 2026, a bipartisan group of US lawmakers introduced H.R. 8170, the Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware Act, or the MATCH Act. 
Three weeks later, on April 22, the House Foreign Affairs Committee advanced it in what lawmakers called ”the largest significant export control mark-up in the history of Congress.”
If enacted, the immersion DUV ban will deal a serious blow to China's semiconductor ambitions in the medium term. It will also greatly accelerate Chinese efforts to develop their own... 


US Semiconductor China Export Restrictions. Game, Set & Now Let's Try MATCH!

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>Q2 2026 beat both guidance and consensus on revenue and margin; FY26 guidance was raised - second time this year, to €43-45bn / 54-56%, from €36-40bn / 51-53% at Q1.</li>
<li>The new guide sits above our own FY26E (€40.0bn / 53.8%) and above the Street — the estimate gap we flagged at initiation has closed, because management has overtaken both.</li>
<li>Memory revenue growth of +75% guided for FY26 is the clearest read-through to the wider Equipment coverage. TSMC's print tomorrow remains the swing factor for our FY27 logic assumption.</li>
</ul>


Q2 2026 beat both guidance and consensus on revenue and margin; FY26 guidance was raised - second time this year, to €43-45bn / 54-56%, from €36-40bn / 51-53% at Q1.
The new guide sits above our own FY26E (€40.0bn / 53.8%) and above the Street — the estimate gap we flagged at initiation has closed, because management has overtaken both.
Memory revenue growth of +75% guided for FY26 is the clearest read-through to the wider Equipment coverage. TSMC's print tomorrow remains the swing factor for our FY27 logic assumption.


Asml NA/US — Q2 2026 Results: Beat, Raise, Repeat

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>In 4Q25, ASML guidance for 2026 revenues was €36.5bn. In 1Q26, revised up to 38bn. In 2Q26 revised up to 44bn. ASML gross margins estimates up from 52% to 56%.</li>
<li>EUV capacity increase by 30% in 2027, possibly another 30% in 2028. DUV capacity up 30%. This suggest 20-25% revenue growth, 2028 revenue at ~€65bn above 2030 target (€44-60bn).</li>
<li>This tells us that AI capacity increase is accelerating, both Logic and DRAM. This means that the discussions from end-clients to toolmakers cover several years of increasing demand. </li>
</ul>


In 4Q25, ASML guidance for 2026 revenues was €36.5bn. In 1Q26, revised up to 38bn. In 2Q26 revised up to 44bn. ASML gross margins estimates up from 52% to 56%.
EUV capacity increase by 30% in 2027, possibly another 30% in 2028. DUV capacity up 30%. This suggest 20-25% revenue growth, 2028 revenue at ~€65bn above 2030 target (€44-60bn).
This tells us that AI capacity increase is accelerating, both Logic and DRAM. This means that the discussions from end-clients to toolmakers cover several years of increasing demand. 


ASML: The Clearest Signal of Increasing AI Semiconductor Demand

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients worldwide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML US)

ASML Q2 2026. Massive Capacity Expansion Plans Leave Markets Unmoved. But Why?

ASML announced 30% capacity increases for both low-NA EUV and DUV immersion tools for delivery in 2027. They are investigating a further 30%...

William Keating

ASML’s €3.8 Billion EUV Quarter Builds A Lithography Powerhouse!

The report from ASML Holding N.V. for the second quarter of 2026 reflects continued momentum in demand for its advanced lithography systems,...

Baptista Research

US Semiconductor China Export Restrictions. Game, Set & Now Let's Try MATCH!

If enacted, the immersion DUV ban will deal a serious blow to China's semiconductor ambitions in the medium term. It will also greatly accelerate...

William Keating

Asml NA/US — Q2 2026 Results: Beat, Raise, Repeat

Q2 2026 results exceed expectations, leading to raised FY26 guidance; Memory revenue growth key for Equipment sector outlook.

Mo Aziz

ASML: The Clearest Signal of Increasing AI Semiconductor Demand

ASML revenue guidance for 2026 has been consistently revised upwards, with estimates now reaching €44bn. Increased EUV and DUV capacity suggests...

Nicolas Baratte

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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ASML Q2 2026. Massive Capacity Expansion Plans Leave Markets Unmoved. But Why?

ASML announced 30% capacity increases for both low-NA EUV and DUV immersion tools for delivery in 2027. They are investigating a further 30%...

William Keating

ASML’s €3.8 Billion EUV Quarter Builds A Lithography Powerhouse!

The report from ASML Holding N.V. for the second quarter of 2026 reflects continued momentum in demand for its advanced lithography systems,...

Baptista Research

US Semiconductor China Export Restrictions. Game, Set & Now Let's Try MATCH!

If enacted, the immersion DUV ban will deal a serious blow to China's semiconductor ambitions in the medium term. It will also greatly accelerate...

William Keating

Asml NA/US — Q2 2026 Results: Beat, Raise, Repeat

​Q2 2026 results exceed expectations, leading to raised FY26 guidance; Memory revenue growth key for Equipment sector outlook.

Mo Aziz

ASML: The Clearest Signal of Increasing AI Semiconductor Demand

​ASML revenue guidance for 2026 has been consistently revised upwards, with estimates now reaching €44bn. Increased EUV and DUV capacity suggests...

Nicolas Baratte

Q2 2026 results exceed expectations, leading to raised FY26 guidance; Memory revenue growth key for Equipment sector outlook.

ASML revenue guidance for 2026 has been consistently revised upwards, with estimates now reaching €44bn. Increased EUV and DUV capacity suggests...