Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI </li>
<li>The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. </li>
<li>The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers</li>
</ul>


Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI 
The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. 
The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers


Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • ABN Amro | new CEO will focus on costs and the risk management model • ASML | wants free passage for machine parts; no evidence that China cracked the EUV puzzle • KPN | continued to deliver on its promises in 1Q25 • Fugro | 1Q25 trading update does not really contain much news • SBM Offshore | completes EUR 130m share buyback; starts new program of EUR 141m • Triodos Bank | facing new setback in its attempts to settle claims</li></ul>

In this edition: • ABN Amro | new CEO will focus on costs and the risk management model • ASML | wants free passage for machine parts; no evidence that China cracked the EUV puzzle • KPN | continued to deliver on its promises in 1Q25 • Fugro | 1Q25 trading update does not really contain much news • SBM Offshore | completes EUR 130m share buyback; starts new program of EUR 141m • Triodos Bank | facing new setback in its attempts to settle claims

<ul><li>In this edition: • ASML Holding | reiterates FY25 outlook – order intake below long-term desired level • dsm-firmenich | deadline for non-binding offers for ANH this Thursday • Van Lanschot Kempen | Bank Delen further expands its presence in the Netherlands • Vopak | partnership with OQ to accelerate development of Duqm as integrated industrial hub • PostNL | main takeaways from yesterday’s AGM • TomTom | change in accounting strongly beneficiary for profitability – no impact on FCF</li></ul>

In this edition: • ASML Holding | reiterates FY25 outlook – order intake below long-term desired level • dsm-firmenich | deadline for non-binding offers for ANH this Thursday • Van Lanschot Kempen | Bank Delen further expands its presence in the Netherlands • Vopak | partnership with OQ to accelerate development of Duqm as integrated industrial hub • PostNL | main takeaways from yesterday’s AGM • TomTom | change in accounting strongly beneficiary for profitability – no impact on FCF

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Will <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> work on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>'s Foundry Services (IFS) and invest about 20% share?</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> Chairman and CEO Dr. CC Wei has promised to further invest USD$100bn to establish capacity in the US; what's the reasoning behind this?</li>
<li>Given the current US tariff issue, what is the best investment advice?  </li>
</ul>


Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) work on Intel Corp (INTC US)'s Foundry Services (IFS) and invest about 20% share?

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) Chairman and CEO Dr. CC Wei has promised to further invest USD$100bn to establish capacity in the US; what's the reasoning behind this?
Given the current US tariff issue, what is the best investment advice?  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Key Questions for TSMC 1Q25 Earnings Conference

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

<ul>
<li>TSMC’s Next Leap: 1Q25 Earnings Ahead and the 2nm Frontline</li>
<li>Is the Valuation Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC Valuation Compared</li>
<li>PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue </li>
</ul>


TSMC’s Next Leap: 1Q25 Earnings Ahead and the 2nm Frontline
Is the Valuation Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC Valuation Compared
PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 1Q25 Results & The 2nm Frontline; Mediatek Vs. TSMC Valuation; PC 1Q25 Data

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients worldwide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML US)

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

What's News in Amsterdam - 24 April (ABN Amro | ASML | KPN | Fugro | SBM Offshore | Triodos Bank)

In this edition: • ABN Amro | new CEO will focus on costs and the risk management model • ASML | wants free passage for machine parts; no evidence...

The IDEA!

PostNL NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In this edition: • ASML Holding | reiterates FY25 outlook – order intake below long-term desired level • dsm-firmenich | deadline for non-binding...

The IDEA!

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Key Questions for TSMC 1Q25 Earnings Conference

Is TSMC considering partnership with Intel for Foundry Services? What's the reasons for TSMC to further investing $100bn in US capacity?...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 1Q25 Results & The 2nm Frontline; Mediatek Vs. TSMC Valuation; PC 1Q25 Data

TSMC's strong 1Q25 earnings and focus on 2nm technology, Mediatek vs TSMC valuation compared, PC market sees 5% YoY growth with inflated shipments...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

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Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

​SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

What's News in Amsterdam - 24 April (ABN Amro | ASML | KPN | Fugro | SBM Offshore | Triodos Bank)

In this edition: • ABN Amro | new CEO will focus on costs and the risk management model • ASML | wants free passage for machine parts; no evidence...

The IDEA!

PostNL NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In this edition: • ASML Holding | reiterates FY25 outlook – order intake below long-term desired level • dsm-firmenich | deadline for non-binding...

The IDEA!

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Key Questions for TSMC 1Q25 Earnings Conference

​Is TSMC considering partnership with Intel for Foundry Services? What's the reasons for TSMC to further investing $100bn in US capacity?...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 1Q25 Results & The 2nm Frontline; Mediatek Vs. TSMC Valuation; PC 1Q25 Data

​TSMC's strong 1Q25 earnings and focus on 2nm technology, Mediatek vs TSMC valuation compared, PC market sees 5% YoY growth with inflated shipments...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Is TSMC considering partnership with Intel for Foundry Services? What's the reasons for TSMC to further investing $100bn in US capacity?...

TSMC's strong 1Q25 earnings and focus on 2nm technology, Mediatek vs TSMC valuation compared, PC market sees 5% YoY growth with inflated shipments...