Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalfoundries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34513:1" rel="noopener">GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)</a> saw positive reactions in their stocks following a possible merger news, despite the current instability in the stock markets.  </li>
<li>Although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalfoundries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34513:1" rel="noopener">GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)</a>'s technology is held above 7nm, it is ahead of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a>, which is still certain generations above China’s current technology in general.  </li>
<li>If these two companies wish to merge, there are still some subjective factors that need to be considered, and it will not be easy to get approval.  </li>
</ul>


Both United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) and GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US) saw positive reactions in their stocks following a possible merger news, despite the current instability in the stock markets.  
Although GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)'s technology is held above 7nm, it is ahead of United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US), which is still certain generations above China’s current technology in general.  
If these two companies wish to merge, there are still some subjective factors that need to be considered, and it will not be easy to get approval.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Merges with GFS? It Should Be a Terrific, but It Won't Be Easy to Happen.

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Tesla has strengthened ties with Baidu amid the US-Sino tech crossfire, showcasing the complex dynamics between the two countries.</li><li>China achieves a breakthrough in semiconductor technology with EUV, while lawmakers propose anonymous semiconductor purchases to secure the industry.</li><li>VCI Global's plan to establish India's first semiconductor wire plant in Chennai marks a significant milestone for the tech industry in the country, with Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen aiming to revolutionize China's AI.</li></ul>

Tesla has strengthened ties with Baidu amid the US-Sino tech crossfire, showcasing the complex dynamics between the two countries.China achieves a breakthrough in semiconductor technology with EUV, while lawmakers propose anonymous semiconductor purchases to secure the industry.VCI Global's plan to establish India's first semiconductor wire plant in Chennai marks a significant milestone for the tech industry in the country, with Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen aiming to revolutionize China's AI.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-Mar-2025): Tesla strengthens ties with Baidu amid US-China tech tensions.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.</li>
<li>There is expected to be US$600m to sell in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a> from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-s-p-500-equal-weight-e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32932:1" rel="noopener">Invesco S&amp;P500 Equal Weight</a> ETFs at the same time as the selling from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.
There is expected to be US$600m to sell in Broadcom from the Technology Select Sector and Invesco S&amp;P500 Equal Weight ETFs at the same time as the selling from VanEck Vectors Semiconductor.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$1.2bn

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC just held a press conference this evening in Taiwan regarding its expanded U.S. investment plans. TSMC said it won't impact Taiwan investments; it is actually accelerating its Taiwan investments.</li>
<li>Additionally, we see TSMC's aggressive U.S. expansion significantly weakening Intel's ability to compete, as it removes one of Intel’s major differentiators--domestic U.S. production.</li>
<li>Maintain Structural Long rating on TSMC -- Expanded U.S. investment fortifies the company’s global leadership. ALSO -- Positive news for semiconductor manufacturing equipment companies internationally and in Taiwan. ASML, etc.</li>
</ul>


TSMC just held a press conference this evening in Taiwan regarding its expanded U.S. investment plans. TSMC said it won't impact Taiwan investments; it is actually accelerating its Taiwan investments.
Additionally, we see TSMC's aggressive U.S. expansion significantly weakening Intel's ability to compete, as it removes one of Intel’s major differentiators--domestic U.S. production.
Maintain Structural Long rating on TSMC -- Expanded U.S. investment fortifies the company’s global leadership. ALSO -- Positive news for semiconductor manufacturing equipment companies internationally and in Taiwan. ASML, etc.


TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position & Positive for Semi Industry Capex

<ul>
<li>Trump Adminstration Gearing Up to Further Restrict China's Access to Chip Technology -- Could Restrict Servicing of Existing Equipment</li>
<li>Foxconn and Honda: Could This Be a New Alliance in EV Manufacturing?</li>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will TSMC Work on Intel Foundry Services? There Are Three Paradoxes... </li>
</ul>


Trump Adminstration Gearing Up to Further Restrict China's Access to Chip Technology -- Could Restrict Servicing of Existing Equipment
Foxconn and Honda: Could This Be a New Alliance in EV Manufacturing?
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will TSMC Work on Intel Foundry Services? There Are Three Paradoxes... 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Trump's New China Chip Restrictions; Foxconn & Honda Alliance?; TSMC & Intel

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients worldwide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML US)

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Merges with GFS? It Should Be a Terrific, but It Won't Be Easy to Happen.

Stocks of UMC US and GFS US rise on possible merger news despite market instability. GFS ahead in technology but merger faces challenges.

Patrick Liao

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-Mar-2025): Tesla strengthens ties with Baidu amid US-China tech tensions.

Weekly news roundup: Tesla strengthens ties with Baidu amid US-Sino tech tensions, China makes EUV breakthrough in semiconductors, lawmakers...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$1.2bn

No constituent changes but big capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Broadcom will have...

Brian Freitas

TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position & Positive for Semi Industry Capex

TSMC explained how it is accelerating Taiwan investments while also increasing its expansion in the U.S.. Highly positive news for semiconductor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Trump's New China Chip Restrictions; Foxconn & Honda Alliance?; TSMC & Intel

Trump Admin preparing to further limit China's chip access; Foxconn and Honda potentially teaming up for EVs; TSMC considering Intel foundry...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Merges with GFS? It Should Be a Terrific, but It Won't Be Easy to Happen.

​Stocks of UMC US and GFS US rise on possible merger news despite market instability. GFS ahead in technology but merger faces challenges.

Patrick Liao

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-Mar-2025): Tesla strengthens ties with Baidu amid US-China tech tensions.

Weekly news roundup: Tesla strengthens ties with Baidu amid US-Sino tech tensions, China makes EUV breakthrough in semiconductors, lawmakers...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$1.2bn

No constituent changes but big capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Broadcom will have...

Brian Freitas

TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position & Positive for Semi Industry Capex

​TSMC explained how it is accelerating Taiwan investments while also increasing its expansion in the U.S.. Highly positive news for semiconductor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Trump's New China Chip Restrictions; Foxconn & Honda Alliance?; TSMC & Intel

​Trump Admin preparing to further limit China's chip access; Foxconn and Honda potentially teaming up for EVs; TSMC considering Intel foundry...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Stocks of UMC US and GFS US rise on possible merger news despite market instability. GFS ahead in technology but merger faces challenges.

TSMC explained how it is accelerating Taiwan investments while also increasing its expansion in the U.S.. Highly positive news for semiconductor...

Trump Admin preparing to further limit China's chip access; Foxconn and Honda potentially teaming up for EVs; TSMC considering Intel foundry...