Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ASML, a leading manufacturer of chip-making equipment, has reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2023, demonstrating strong financial performance despite a challenging macroeconomic landscape marked by uncertainties.</li><li>The company reported net sales of EUR 7.2 billion in Q4, coming in just above the guidance, mainly due to more installed base business.</li><li>This included EUV system revenue of EUR 2.3 billion and net system sales totalling EUR 5.7 billion, largely driven by Logic which accounted for 63% of net system sales, while Memory composes the remainder.</li></ul>

ASML, a leading manufacturer of chip-making equipment, has reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2023, demonstrating strong financial performance despite a challenging macroeconomic landscape marked by uncertainties.The company reported net sales of EUR 7.2 billion in Q4, coming in just above the guidance, mainly due to more installed base business.This included EUV system revenue of EUR 2.3 billion and net system sales totalling EUR 5.7 billion, largely driven by Logic which accounted for 63% of net system sales, while Memory composes the remainder.

ASML Holding ADR: Increasing Utilization Rates and Technology Transition Could Be A Transformative Force? - Major Drivers

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>LRCX reported Q423 revenues of $3.76 billion, marginally ahead of the guided midpoint, up 8% QoQ but down 29% YoY</li>
<li>Looking ahead, LRCX forecasted Q124 revenues of $3.7 billion, essentially flat sequentially.</li>
<li>The memory recovery is happening, but only for HBM and node transitions. No spending on memory capacity additions means limited upside for LRCX. </li>
</ul>


LRCX reported Q423 revenues of $3.76 billion, marginally ahead of the guided midpoint, up 8% QoQ but down 29% YoY
Looking ahead, LRCX forecasted Q124 revenues of $3.7 billion, essentially flat sequentially.
The memory recovery is happening, but only for HBM and node transitions. No spending on memory capacity additions means limited upside for LRCX. 


LRCX. Recovery Stalls As Outlook Remains Stubbornly Muted

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is the biggest sell while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> is the biggest buy.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 6.6% resulting in a one-way trade of US$682m. Couple of stocks have greater than 0.2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is the biggest sell while NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) is the biggest buy.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.6% resulting in a one-way trade of US$682m. Couple of stocks have greater than 0.2x ADV to trade.


MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: TSMC Is the Big Sell

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

<ul>
<li>Last week global heavyweights AMD, Samsung, and Qualcomm delivered good news, including for the Memory, PC, and Smartphone industries. Taiwan company results supported their views as well.</li>
<li>Looking ahead, Novatek, Asustek, and Himax are set to release in Taiwan. Combined with NXP abroad, this will provide color on display demand, automotive, and servers/PCs.</li>
<li>A new Chinese memory chip maker just received major government investment, with an IPO of its related company planned.</li>
</ul>


Last week global heavyweights AMD, Samsung, and Qualcomm delivered good news, including for the Memory, PC, and Smartphone industries. Taiwan company results supported their views as well.
Looking ahead, Novatek, Asustek, and Himax are set to release in Taiwan. Combined with NXP abroad, this will provide color on display demand, automotive, and servers/PCs.
A new Chinese memory chip maker just received major government investment, with an IPO of its related company planned.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Positive Signs for Memory, PC, Smartphones; Key Autos & Display Color This Week

<ul><li>ASML had a highly disappointing quarter and failed to meet the revenue expectations as well as earnings expectations of analysts.</li><li>The company reported net sales of EUR 6.7 billion, coming in at the midpoint of their guidance.</li><li>They anticipate net sales to be between EUR 6.7 billion and EUR 7.1 billion in Q4, with installed base management sales around EUR 1.4 billion.</li></ul>

ASML had a highly disappointing quarter and failed to meet the revenue expectations as well as earnings expectations of analysts.The company reported net sales of EUR 6.7 billion, coming in at the midpoint of their guidance.They anticipate net sales to be between EUR 6.7 billion and EUR 7.1 billion in Q4, with installed base management sales around EUR 1.4 billion.

ASML: Discover the Opportunities and Challenges That Lie Ahead! - Key Drivers

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients worldwide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML US)

ASML Holding ADR: Increasing Utilization Rates and Technology Transition Could Be A Transformative Force? - Major Drivers

ASML, a leading manufacturer of chip-making equipment, has reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2023, demonstrating...

Baptista Research

LRCX. Recovery Stalls As Outlook Remains Stubbornly Muted

LRCX Q423 revenue $3.76 billion, +8% QoQ, -29% YoY. Q124 revenues guide $3.7 billion, flat QoQ.Memory IS recovery, but only for HBM & node...

William Keating

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: TSMC Is the Big Sell

There are no constituent changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 6.6% resulting in a one-way trade of US$682m. Couple of stocks have greater than...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Positive Signs for Memory, PC, Smartphones; Key Autos & Display Color This Week

Last week global heavyweights AMD, Samsung, and Qualcomm delivered good news, including for the Memory, PC, and Smartphone industries. Taiwan...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASML: Discover the Opportunities and Challenges That Lie Ahead! - Key Drivers

ASML had a highly disappointing quarter and failed to meet the revenue expectations as well as earnings expectations of analysts. The company...

Baptista Research

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