Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>More US restrictions on export of SPE Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms (CXMT, SMIC, YMTC). The big increase in Chinese spending was done over 2023-24, it's declining in 2025-26. </li>
<li>Chinese domestic SPE vendors are growing fast and gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. ASML is a monopoly below 65nm. KLA is very dominant. Focus on best 2: ASML, KLA.</li>
<li>China’s efforts to grow its own supply chain and equipment makers will continue, AMEC and Naura are the leaders. Consolidation could start. </li>
</ul>


More US restrictions on export of SPE Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms (CXMT, SMIC, YMTC). The big increase in Chinese spending was done over 2023-24, it's declining in 2025-26. 
Chinese domestic SPE vendors are growing fast and gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. ASML is a monopoly below 65nm. KLA is very dominant. Focus on best 2: ASML, KLA.
China’s efforts to grow its own supply chain and equipment makers will continue, AMEC and Naura are the leaders. Consolidation could start. 


China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

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<ul><li>ASML Holding NV reported its first-quarter 2025 results, reflecting strong financial performance but also heightened market uncertainty driven by newly announced tariffs.</li><li>The company's total net sales reached €7.74 billion, slightly below analysts' expectations of €7.77 billion, although up from €5.29 billion a year earlier.</li><li>Net system sales contributed €5.7 billion, with €3.2 billion from Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) systems and €2.5 billion from non-EUV systems, while Installed Base Management sales totaled €2 billion.</li></ul>

ASML Holding NV reported its first-quarter 2025 results, reflecting strong financial performance but also heightened market uncertainty driven by newly announced tariffs.The company's total net sales reached €7.74 billion, slightly below analysts' expectations of €7.77 billion, although up from €5.29 billion a year earlier.Net system sales contributed €5.7 billion, with €3.2 billion from Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) systems and €2.5 billion from non-EUV systems, while Installed Base Management sales totaled €2 billion.

ASML Dominates China’s Semiconductor Surge But What Lies Ahead?

<ul>
<li>Small beat in 1Q25, small miss in 2Q (guidance vs Consensus). 2025 outlook unchanged but higher uncertainty, possibly weaker margins in 2H. Consensus on the middle of the guidance range.</li>
<li>Management comments on the benefits of High NA EUV, trying to counter the concerns on higher cost. Mngt says there are other benefits (cycle time, process simplification meaning higher yield)</li>
<li>The stock is trading at -1 stdev below average PEx, or 25x forward EPS. Problem is Avg PEx includes 2 valuations bubble. Excluding these, the stock is at average PEx.</li>
</ul>


Small beat in 1Q25, small miss in 2Q (guidance vs Consensus). 2025 outlook unchanged but higher uncertainty, possibly weaker margins in 2H. Consensus on the middle of the guidance range.
Management comments on the benefits of High NA EUV, trying to counter the concerns on higher cost. Mngt says there are other benefits (cycle time, process simplification meaning higher yield)
The stock is trading at -1 stdev below average PEx, or 25x forward EPS. Problem is Avg PEx includes 2 valuations bubble. Excluding these, the stock is at average PEx.


ASML: Overall on Track to Achieve 2025 Guidance. The Stock Has Corrected but Isn’t that Cheap

Podcast by CEO, Norges Bank Investment Management, In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

Podcast by CEO, Norges Bank Investment Management

The CEO of the largest single investor in the world, Norges Bank Investment Management, interviews leaders of some of the largest companies in the world. You will get to know the leader, their strategy, leadership principles, and much more. Hosted on Acast. See https://www.acast.com/privacy-policy for more information.

<ul><li>ASML produces lithography systems for printing electronic circuits on chips</li><li>ASML is the only company in the world producing EUV lithography printers</li><li>EUV lithography involves generating light with a very small wavelength and requires complex technology and optics, with challenges in light generation and guiding the light to print circuits on wafers</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

ASML produces lithography systems for printing electronic circuits on chipsASML is the only company in the world producing EUV lithography printersEUV lithography involves generating light with a very small wavelength and requires complex technology and optics, with challenges in light generation and guiding the light to print circuits on wafersThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

ASML CEO: EUV Technology, Microchips and Long-term Mindset

<ul><li>ASML Holding N.V. continues to cement its position as the linchpin of the semiconductor supply chain, demonstrating resilience in the face of market turbulence.</li><li>The Dutch chip-equipment manufacturer posted robust fourth-quarter results, with net sales reaching €9.3 billion, surpassing prior guidance.</li><li>Despite concerns about AI efficiency potentially reducing demand for high-end chips—exemplified by the recent DeepSeek-driven selloff—ASML’s strong order intake and continued industry reliance on its cutting-edge lithography technology highlight its long-term investment appeal.</li></ul>

ASML Holding N.V. continues to cement its position as the linchpin of the semiconductor supply chain, demonstrating resilience in the face of market turbulence.The Dutch chip-equipment manufacturer posted robust fourth-quarter results, with net sales reaching €9.3 billion, surpassing prior guidance.Despite concerns about AI efficiency potentially reducing demand for high-end chips—exemplified by the recent DeepSeek-driven selloff—ASML’s strong order intake and continued industry reliance on its cutting-edge lithography technology highlight its long-term investment appeal.

ASML Defies DeepSeek Panic—Massive AI Boom Ignites Orders But Will This Last?

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast

US to restrict export of Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms CXMT, SMIC, YMTC. Chinese vendors gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. China...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Dominates China’s Semiconductor Surge But What Lies Ahead?

ASML Holding NV reported its first-quarter 2025 results, reflecting strong financial performance but also heightened market uncertainty driven by...

Baptista Research

ASML: Overall on Track to Achieve 2025 Guidance. The Stock Has Corrected but Isn’t that Cheap

ASML inline results in Q1 and Q2 guidance with potential weaker margins in 2H. Management touts benefits of High NA EUV despite concerns on cost....

Nicolas Baratte

ASML CEO: EUV Technology, Microchips and Long-term Mindset

ASML produces advanced lithography systems using EUV technology to print electronic circuits on semiconductor chips, playing a crucial role in...

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

ASML Defies DeepSeek Panic—Massive AI Boom Ignites Orders But Will This Last?

ASML Holding N.V. continues to cement its position as the linchpin of the semiconductor supply chain, demonstrating resilience in the face of...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast

​US to restrict export of Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms CXMT, SMIC, YMTC. Chinese vendors gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. China...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Dominates China’s Semiconductor Surge But What Lies Ahead?

ASML Holding NV reported its first-quarter 2025 results, reflecting strong financial performance but also heightened market uncertainty driven by...

Baptista Research

ASML: Overall on Track to Achieve 2025 Guidance. The Stock Has Corrected but Isn’t that Cheap

​ASML inline results in Q1 and Q2 guidance with potential weaker margins in 2H. Management touts benefits of High NA EUV despite concerns on cost....

Nicolas Baratte

ASML CEO: EUV Technology, Microchips and Long-term Mindset

ASML produces advanced lithography systems using EUV technology to print electronic circuits on semiconductor chips, playing a crucial role in...

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

ASML Defies DeepSeek Panic—Massive AI Boom Ignites Orders But Will This Last?

ASML Holding N.V. continues to cement its position as the linchpin of the semiconductor supply chain, demonstrating resilience in the face of...

Baptista Research

US to restrict export of Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms CXMT, SMIC, YMTC. Chinese vendors gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. China...

ASML inline results in Q1 and Q2 guidance with potential weaker margins in 2H. Management touts benefits of High NA EUV despite concerns on cost....