Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ASML Holding NV reported its first-quarter 2025 results, reflecting strong financial performance but also heightened market uncertainty driven by newly announced tariffs.</li><li>The company's total net sales reached €7.74 billion, slightly below analysts' expectations of €7.77 billion, although up from €5.29 billion a year earlier.</li><li>Net system sales contributed €5.7 billion, with €3.2 billion from Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) systems and €2.5 billion from non-EUV systems, while Installed Base Management sales totaled €2 billion.</li></ul>

ASML Holding NV reported its first-quarter 2025 results, reflecting strong financial performance but also heightened market uncertainty driven by newly announced tariffs.The company's total net sales reached €7.74 billion, slightly below analysts' expectations of €7.77 billion, although up from €5.29 billion a year earlier.Net system sales contributed €5.7 billion, with €3.2 billion from Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) systems and €2.5 billion from non-EUV systems, while Installed Base Management sales totaled €2 billion.

ASML Dominates China’s Semiconductor Surge But What Lies Ahead?

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Small beat in 1Q25, small miss in 2Q (guidance vs Consensus). 2025 outlook unchanged but higher uncertainty, possibly weaker margins in 2H. Consensus on the middle of the guidance range.</li>
<li>Management comments on the benefits of High NA EUV, trying to counter the concerns on higher cost. Mngt says there are other benefits (cycle time, process simplification meaning higher yield)</li>
<li>The stock is trading at -1 stdev below average PEx, or 25x forward EPS. Problem is Avg PEx includes 2 valuations bubble. Excluding these, the stock is at average PEx.</li>
</ul>


Small beat in 1Q25, small miss in 2Q (guidance vs Consensus). 2025 outlook unchanged but higher uncertainty, possibly weaker margins in 2H. Consensus on the middle of the guidance range.
Management comments on the benefits of High NA EUV, trying to counter the concerns on higher cost. Mngt says there are other benefits (cycle time, process simplification meaning higher yield)
The stock is trading at -1 stdev below average PEx, or 25x forward EPS. Problem is Avg PEx includes 2 valuations bubble. Excluding these, the stock is at average PEx.


ASML: Overall on Track to Achieve 2025 Guidance. The Stock Has Corrected but Isn’t that Cheap

<ul>
<li>Comments focus on low bookings in 3Q24. The reset is much larger than this. ASML has capacity for 90 low-NA EUV machines in 2025-26. Demand in 2025 is below 50.</li>
<li>Bullish 2025-28 guidance (revenue / capacity) provided by ASML end of 2022 is finally resetting. 2025 Consensus Net Income forecast could reset by ~20%, 2026 by ~30%.</li>
<li>ASML finally factors in 1) weak end demand in all segments except for AI 2) Fab push out or cancellation  3) China accelerated Capex and over capacity are slowing.</li>
</ul>


Comments focus on low bookings in 3Q24. The reset is much larger than this. ASML has capacity for 90 low-NA EUV machines in 2025-26. Demand in 2025 is below 50.
Bullish 2025-28 guidance (revenue / capacity) provided by ASML end of 2022 is finally resetting. 2025 Consensus Net Income forecast could reset by ~20%, 2026 by ~30%.
ASML finally factors in 1) weak end demand in all segments except for AI 2) Fab push out or cancellation  3) China accelerated Capex and over capacity are slowing.


ASML 3Q24: The Huge Reset Is Mostly the Result of Company's Miscalculations

Podcast by CEO, Norges Bank Investment Management, In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

Podcast by CEO, Norges Bank Investment Management

The CEO of the largest single investor in the world, Norges Bank Investment Management, interviews leaders of some of the largest companies in the world. You will get to know the leader, their strategy, leadership principles, and much more. Hosted on Acast. See https://www.acast.com/privacy-policy for more information.

<ul><li>ASML produces lithography systems for printing electronic circuits on chips</li><li>ASML is the only company in the world producing EUV lithography printers</li><li>EUV lithography involves generating light with a very small wavelength and requires complex technology and optics, with challenges in light generation and guiding the light to print circuits on wafers</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

ASML produces lithography systems for printing electronic circuits on chipsASML is the only company in the world producing EUV lithography printersEUV lithography involves generating light with a very small wavelength and requires complex technology and optics, with challenges in light generation and guiding the light to print circuits on wafersThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

ASML CEO: EUV Technology, Microchips and Long-term Mindset

<ul><li>ASML Holding N.V. continues to cement its position as the linchpin of the semiconductor supply chain, demonstrating resilience in the face of market turbulence.</li><li>The Dutch chip-equipment manufacturer posted robust fourth-quarter results, with net sales reaching €9.3 billion, surpassing prior guidance.</li><li>Despite concerns about AI efficiency potentially reducing demand for high-end chips—exemplified by the recent DeepSeek-driven selloff—ASML’s strong order intake and continued industry reliance on its cutting-edge lithography technology highlight its long-term investment appeal.</li></ul>

ASML Holding N.V. continues to cement its position as the linchpin of the semiconductor supply chain, demonstrating resilience in the face of market turbulence.The Dutch chip-equipment manufacturer posted robust fourth-quarter results, with net sales reaching €9.3 billion, surpassing prior guidance.Despite concerns about AI efficiency potentially reducing demand for high-end chips—exemplified by the recent DeepSeek-driven selloff—ASML’s strong order intake and continued industry reliance on its cutting-edge lithography technology highlight its long-term investment appeal.

ASML Defies DeepSeek Panic—Massive AI Boom Ignites Orders But Will This Last?

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

ASML Dominates China’s Semiconductor Surge But What Lies Ahead?

ASML Holding NV reported its first-quarter 2025 results, reflecting strong financial performance but also heightened market uncertainty driven by...

Baptista Research

ASML: Overall on Track to Achieve 2025 Guidance. The Stock Has Corrected but Isn’t that Cheap

ASML inline results in Q1 and Q2 guidance with potential weaker margins in 2H. Management touts benefits of High NA EUV despite concerns on cost....

Nicolas Baratte

ASML 3Q24: The Huge Reset Is Mostly the Result of Company's Miscalculations

ASML revenue guidance reset yesterday comes from management exuberance in 2022. It is not obvious that it implies a “broad negative surprise” in...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML CEO: EUV Technology, Microchips and Long-term Mindset

ASML produces advanced lithography systems using EUV technology to print electronic circuits on semiconductor chips, playing a crucial role in...

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

ASML Defies DeepSeek Panic—Massive AI Boom Ignites Orders But Will This Last?

ASML Holding N.V. continues to cement its position as the linchpin of the semiconductor supply chain, demonstrating resilience in the face of...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ASML Dominates China’s Semiconductor Surge But What Lies Ahead?

ASML Holding NV reported its first-quarter 2025 results, reflecting strong financial performance but also heightened market uncertainty driven by...

Baptista Research

ASML: Overall on Track to Achieve 2025 Guidance. The Stock Has Corrected but Isn’t that Cheap

​ASML inline results in Q1 and Q2 guidance with potential weaker margins in 2H. Management touts benefits of High NA EUV despite concerns on cost....

Nicolas Baratte

ASML 3Q24: The Huge Reset Is Mostly the Result of Company's Miscalculations

ASML revenue guidance reset yesterday comes from management exuberance in 2022. It is not obvious that it implies a “broad negative surprise” in...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML CEO: EUV Technology, Microchips and Long-term Mindset

ASML produces advanced lithography systems using EUV technology to print electronic circuits on semiconductor chips, playing a crucial role in...

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

ASML Defies DeepSeek Panic—Massive AI Boom Ignites Orders But Will This Last?

ASML Holding N.V. continues to cement its position as the linchpin of the semiconductor supply chain, demonstrating resilience in the face of...

Baptista Research

ASML inline results in Q1 and Q2 guidance with potential weaker margins in 2H. Management touts benefits of High NA EUV despite concerns on cost....