Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Several equity indexes and indicators we watch are telling us an initial primary low has been established for global equities (ACWI-US). At the same time, after this type of major waterfall decline there is often a test of this initial low - and oftentimes we get an undercut of the initial low. Barring approval of a first-line therapy for COVID-19 we are of the belief that we will get an eventual test of this initial low and potentially an undercut. In this report we highlight key technical levels and indicators to watch and suggest investment opportunities with defensive and/or growth characteristics. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.

Several equity indexes and indicators we watch are telling us an initial primary low has been established for global equities (ACWI-US). At the same time, after this type of major waterfall decline there is often a test of this initial low - and oftentimes we get an undercut of the initial low. Barring approval of a first-line therapy for COVID-19 we are of the belief that we will get an eventual test of this initial low and potentially an undercut. In this report we highlight key technical levels and indicators to watch and suggest investment opportunities with defensive and/or growth characteristics. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Initial Low Established

S&amp;P 500 Potential Support Levels. Current logical support levels we are monitoring include the December 2018 low of 2,346 and prior resistance in 2015-2016 at 2,130-2,200. The 2,346 level would make a lot of sense, however there is nothing that says we can’t be down 35% (coinciding with the 2,130-2,200 level) or more from the highs. Ultimately, COVID-19 is holding the market hostage and it likely will stay that way until the virus spread diminishes.

S&amp;P 500 Potential Support Levels. Current logical support levels we are monitoring include the December 2018 low of 2,346 and prior resistance in 2015-2016 at 2,130-2,200. The 2,346 level would make a lot of sense, however there is nothing that says we can’t be down 35% (coinciding with the 2,130-2,200 level) or more from the highs. Ultimately, COVID-19 is holding the market hostage and it likely will stay that way until the virus spread diminishes.

S&P 500 Technical Appraisal and Support Levels

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Equity Bottom-Up

ASML, a company  that  makes tools for the  semiconductor industry, has been out-performing the market despite a downturn in the chip business.  The company has a stranglehold on advanced lithography equipment and established customers as well as new entrants in China all want to acquire these tools in the near future.Although uncertainties exist between China's economy and COVID-19, US-China trade sanctions, and the possibility of a coronavirus-driven global meltdown, the company's stock still appears to be strong.

ASML, a company  that  makes tools for the  semiconductor industry, has been out-performing the market despite a downturn in the chip business.  The company has a stranglehold on advanced lithography equipment and established customers as well as new entrants in China all want to acquire these tools in the near future.Although uncertainties exist between China's economy and COVID-19, US-China trade sanctions, and the possibility of a coronavirus-driven global meltdown, the company's stock still appears to be strong.

At the SPIE Advanced Lithography conference this week Applied Materials proved that the company has a clear vision of the future and the way that the company will support its customers' needs for advanced semiconductor processing equipment.

At the SPIE Advanced Lithography conference this week Applied Materials proved that the company has a clear vision of the future and the way that the company will support its customers' needs for advanced semiconductor processing equipment.

Applied Materials Shines at SPIE Conference

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

On the back of robust billings in the fourth quarter, the semiconductor Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) segment closed out 2019 on a  comparatively high note with annual billings for the North American players down 12% YoY, far less than had been originally anticipated. Now, with  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applied-materials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:283:1" rel="noopener">Applied Materials</a> bringing to a close the latest reporting season earlier this week, the consensus is for strong double digit growth in 2020.  However, that growth number comes with health warning as AMAT lowers its first quarter guidance by $300 million, some 7% of revenues, as a result of the disruption to their business in China caused by the spread of the so-called Novel Coronavirus in Hubei province.

On the back of robust billings in the fourth quarter, the semiconductor Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) segment closed out 2019 on a  comparatively high note with annual billings for the North American players down 12% YoY, far less than had been originally anticipated. Now, with  Applied Materials bringing to a close the latest reporting season earlier this week, the consensus is for strong double digit growth in 2020.  However, that growth number comes with health warning as AMAT lowers its first quarter guidance by $300 million, some 7% of revenues, as a result of the disruption to their business in China caused by the spread of the so-called Novel Coronavirus in Hubei province. 

Semiconductor WFE Strong 2019 Finish And Double Digit 2020 Outlook, Albeit With A Coronavirus Caveat

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

Global Equity Strategy: Initial Low Established

Several equity indexes and indicators we watch are telling us an initial primary low has been established for global equities (ACWI-US). At the...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 Technical Appraisal and Support Levels

S&P 500 Potential Support Levels. Current logical support levels we are monitoring include the December 2018 low of 2,346 and prior resistance...

Vermilion Research

Is ASML's Steady Rise About To End?

ASML, a company that makes tools for the semiconductor industry, has been out-performing the market despite a downturn in the chip business. ...

Jim Handy

Applied Materials Shines at SPIE Conference

At the SPIE Advanced Lithography conference this week Applied Materials proved that the company has a clear vision of the future and the way that...

Jim Handy

Semiconductor WFE Strong 2019 Finish And Double Digit 2020 Outlook, Albeit With A Coronavirus Caveat

On the back of robust billings in the fourth quarter, the semiconductor Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) segment closed out 2019 on a comparatively high...

William Keating

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Market Cap (USDm)

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