Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

The Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone continued its downward trend, coming in at 10.2% in March 2016 compared to 10.4% in February and 11.2% in March 2015. The unemployment rate was at its lowest level since August 2011, and the gradual improvement in the labor market is expected to continue.The decline in the unemployment was largely across the board amongst the Eurozone members. It decreased to 10% in France in March 2016 compared to 10.2% in February while it fell to 4.2%…

The Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone continued its downward trend, coming in at 10.2% in March 2016 compared to 10.4% in February and 11.2% in March 2015. The unemployment rate was at its lowest level since August 2011, and the gradual improvement in the labor market is expected to continue.The decline in the unemployment was largely across the board amongst the Eurozone members. It decreased to 10% in France in March 2016 compared to 10.2% in February while it fell to 4.2%…

Eurozone: Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate Continues to Trend Downwards

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Banking profits are under attack from FinTech Over the next five years, banks will no longer enjoy the oligopolistic profits of the past. Their scale is now working against them. Nimbler financial technology (or “FinTech”) companies are eating into their market share. Banking profits in segments such as enterprise lending and wealth management will decline by up to 35% by 2025, according to McKinsey.Crowdfunding is the most potent FinTech threat.

Banking profits are under attack from FinTech Over the next five years, banks will no longer enjoy the oligopolistic profits of the past. Their scale is now working against them. Nimbler financial technology (or “FinTech”) companies are eating into their market share. Banking profits in segments such as enterprise lending and wealth management will decline by up to 35% by 2025, according to McKinsey.Crowdfunding is the most potent FinTech threat.

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>BMPS has formally chosen the delist-and-merge route for Mediobanca; MB’s board has launched the adviser-led integration process. Next hard catalyst is BMPS’s combined strategic plan on 27 Feb.</li>
<li>Today’s repricing looks “real money”: MB closed €19.18 on &gt;€100m turnover; BMPS €8.558 on &gt;€325m. MB now trades as minority clean-up optionality, not tender-mechanics carry.</li>
<li>The 2025 2.533×BMPS+€0.90 formula is a reference, not an arb anchor. Preferred setup: long MB with lighter beta hedge; avoid a full 2.533 ratio hedge until terms/mechanism are disclosed.</li>
</ul>


BMPS has formally chosen the delist-and-merge route for Mediobanca; MB’s board has launched the adviser-led integration process. Next hard catalyst is BMPS’s combined strategic plan on 27 Feb.
Today’s repricing looks “real money”: MB closed €19.18 on &gt;€100m turnover; BMPS €8.558 on &gt;€325m. MB now trades as minority clean-up optionality, not tender-mechanics carry.
The 2025 2.533×BMPS+€0.90 formula is a reference, not an arb anchor. Preferred setup: long MB with lighter beta hedge; avoid a full 2.533 ratio hedge until terms/mechanism are disclosed.


BMPS–Mediobanca: Delisting Decision Crystallises the Endgame — “what Now?”

<ul>
<li>Mediobanca’s €6.3bn all-share offer for Banca Generali transforms its strategic profile, shifting focus to wealth management while creating a strong industrial partnership with Generali through a stake divestment.</li>
<li>The deal offers a 4.6% gross spread and an estimated 9.4% annualized return over a six-month timeline, underpinned by €660 million synergies that exceed the acquisition premium.</li>
<li>Shareholder approval remains uncertain due to opposition from major investors Delfin and Caltagirone, making institutional support critical as Mediobanca fends off BMPS’s competing, state-aligned hostile bid.</li>
</ul>


Mediobanca’s €6.3bn all-share offer for Banca Generali transforms its strategic profile, shifting focus to wealth management while creating a strong industrial partnership with Generali through a stake divestment.
The deal offers a 4.6% gross spread and an estimated 9.4% annualized return over a six-month timeline, underpinned by €660 million synergies that exceed the acquisition premium.
Shareholder approval remains uncertain due to opposition from major investors Delfin and Caltagirone, making institutional support critical as Mediobanca fends off BMPS’s competing, state-aligned hostile bid.


A Wealth of Moves: Mediobanca Bets on Banca Generali Strength to Outflank BMPS

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On the 28th March, Li Zhenfu (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sciclone-pharmaceuticals-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17351:1" rel="noopener">SciClone (6600 HK)</a>'s NED), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/assicurazioni-generali-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21191:1" rel="noopener">Assicurazioni Generali (G IM)</a>, and concert parties (collectively controlling 36.61%), <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0328/2024032800746.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">made an Offer at $18.80/share</a>, a 33.9% premium to undisturbed. </li>
<li>The Offer price is bang in line with SciClone's March 2021 IPO price. Terms were declared final. This is a clean deal.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0523/2024052301651.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Scheme Document</a> is now out. The Court Meeting will be held on the 19th June. Expected payment on or before the 12 July. FWIW: IFA says fair &amp; reasonable.</li>
</ul>


On the 28th March, Li Zhenfu (SciClone (6600 HK)'s NED), Assicurazioni Generali (G IM), and concert parties (collectively controlling 36.61%), made an Offer at $18.80/share, a 33.9% premium to undisturbed. 
The Offer price is bang in line with SciClone's March 2021 IPO price. Terms were declared final. This is a clean deal.
The Scheme Document is now out. The Court Meeting will be held on the 19th June. Expected payment on or before the 12 July. FWIW: IFA says fair &amp; reasonable.


SciClone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK): 19th June Shareholder Vote

Italy

Generali provides insurance and asset management services. The Company offers life and property and casualty insurance, and insurance solutions with ESG components, as well as asset management services. Generali serves clients worldwide.

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Assicurazioni Generali (G IM)

Eurozone: Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate Continues to Trend Downwards

The Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone continued its downward trend, coming in at 10.2% in March 2016 compared to 10.4% in...

Rajan Govil

Crowdfunding as an Investment Theme

Banking profits are under attack from FinTechOver the next five years, banks will no longer enjoy the oligopolistic profits of the past. Their...

CM Research

BMPS–Mediobanca: Delisting Decision Crystallises the Endgame — “what Now?”

BMPS commits to delist and merge Mediobanca; MB board starts adviser-led process. Market reprices MB as minority clean-up optionality into 27 Feb...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

A Wealth of Moves: Mediobanca Bets on Banca Generali Strength to Outflank BMPS

Clean 4.6% gross spread, 9%+ annualized return; hedge via Generali short; low reg risk; key event is 16 June EGM. Main risk: shareholder block via...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

SciClone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK): 19th June Shareholder Vote

This is positive. Pentwater Capital with 8.51% of independent shares (& 4.64% of shares out), has confirmed it will vote for the Scheme at the 19th...

David Blennerhassett

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