European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With a 75.6% estimated probability, the Assura takeover by KKR and Stonepeak is highly likely, given board support and minimal offer sweetening, signaling no further bid increases.</li>
<li>Fair Valuation: The 49.4p per share offer represents a 32% premium to pre-bid trading levels, aligning with Assura’s NAV, and exceeding PHP’s rejected 43p per share merger proposal.</li>
<li>KKR may extract cost savings from Assura’s 12% EPRA cost ratio, potentially saving £3+ million annually, alongside additional efficiencies from delisting and financial restructuring.</li>
</ul>


With a 75.6% estimated probability, the Assura takeover by KKR and Stonepeak is highly likely, given board support and minimal offer sweetening, signaling no further bid increases.
Fair Valuation: The 49.4p per share offer represents a 32% premium to pre-bid trading levels, aligning with Assura’s NAV, and exceeding PHP’s rejected 43p per share merger proposal.
KKR may extract cost savings from Assura’s 12% EPRA cost ratio, potentially saving £3+ million annually, alongside additional efficiencies from delisting and financial restructuring.


Assura's Takeover: Buy as KKR’s Final Offer Nears Completion

<ul>
<li>Takeover Interest: KKR proposed a 48.0p per share bid for Assura, a 28.2% premium to its last closing price but a 2.8% discount to its 49.4p NAV.</li>
<li>Financial Position: Assura reported £157.8M in revenue (+4.92% YoY) and reduced net losses from £119.2M to £28.6M, showing improved operational performance, which could support a sweetened offer.</li>
<li>With Assura trading at 42.6p against KKR’s 48.0p bid, the gross spread is 12.7%, implying a 74.3% market-implied probability of deal success using a 37.44p break price.</li>
</ul>


Takeover Interest: KKR proposed a 48.0p per share bid for Assura, a 28.2% premium to its last closing price but a 2.8% discount to its 49.4p NAV.
Financial Position: Assura reported £157.8M in revenue (+4.92% YoY) and reduced net losses from £119.2M to £28.6M, showing improved operational performance, which could support a sweetened offer.
With Assura trading at 42.6p against KKR’s 48.0p bid, the gross spread is 12.7%, implying a 74.3% market-implied probability of deal success using a 37.44p break price.


Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the September 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Our latest estimates suggest there could be two regular changes for F100 and six regular changes for F250 during the September 2025 rebalance.</li>
<li>After that, we expect multiple M&amp;A-related intra-review changes over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
Our latest estimates suggest there could be two regular changes for F100 and six regular changes for F250 during the September 2025 rebalance.
After that, we expect multiple M&amp;A-related intra-review changes over the next few weeks.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Sep25: ~10 Regular & Intra-Review Changes Likely in September

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> is a clear value play. But it's not as cheap to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite (CLBT US)</a> as it was  last month. The trade is a net long position</li>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> plumbs new 12-month lows for its NAV discount and implied stub, Swire's B shares have significantly outperformed the As over the past month.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-holdings-gro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10356:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)</a> is a bubble. High shareholder concentration is still likely present, and the stock is getting squeezed. SHP is a short. Once it starts to turn.</li>
</ul>



Sun Corp (6736 JP) is a clear value play. But it's not as cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US) as it was  last month. The trade is a net long position
As Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) plumbs new 12-month lows for its NAV discount and implied stub, Swire's B shares have significantly outperformed the As over the past month.

Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK) is a bubble. High shareholder concentration is still likely present, and the stock is getting squeezed. SHP is a short. Once it starts to turn.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Swire, Shandong Hi-Speed, PRC Rural Bank Delistings

<ul>
<li>Intervention seeds participation as a PRC investor (COSCO?) is expected to join the bidding consortium for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a> ports.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13631:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet Group (9449 JP)</a> needs to sell shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-inc-919fd60b-ad2a-4c5f-b333-167a849b67b0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9029:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet (4784 JP)</a>to achieve a "float" of 35% by 31 December 2026. Recent filings show they are selling. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> has been selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, then buying back its shares. (As has Tencent). Reportedly Prosus is now selling shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Intervention seeds participation as a PRC investor (COSCO?) is expected to join the bidding consortium for CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) ports.

GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) needs to sell shares in GMO Internet (4784 JP)to achieve a "float" of 35% by 31 December 2026. Recent filings show they are selling. 

Prosus NV (PRX NA) has been selling Tencent (700 HK), then buying back its shares. (As has Tencent). Reportedly Prosus is now selling shares in Meituan (3690 HK).


Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutch, GMO Internet, Prosus/Meituan, Piedmont Lithium

United Kingdom

Assura PLC is a primary healthcare property group. The Company is a long-term investor and developer of primary care property. Assura works with general practitioners, health professionals and National Health Services to deliver patient care. The properties are leased to General practitioner practices and Primary Care Trusts.

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Assura PLC (AGR LN)

Assura's Takeover: Buy as KKR’s Final Offer Nears Completion

Assura takeover by KKR and Stonepeak highly probable with board support and minimal offer sweetening, fair valuation at 49.4p per share, potential...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

KKR/Assura: Possible Sweetened Offer

KKR proposes 48.0p bid for Assura, showing interest in takeover. Assura's improved financial performance may support a higher offer. Market...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Sep25: ~10 Regular & Intra-Review Changes Likely in September

F100/250 Sep25 index changes will be confirmed after market close today. Yesterday was the base date for final ranks. Please see discussion point...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Swire, Shandong Hi-Speed, PRC Rural Bank Delistings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutch, GMO Internet, Prosus/Meituan, Piedmont Lithium

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Assura's Takeover: Buy as KKR’s Final Offer Nears Completion

​Assura takeover by KKR and Stonepeak highly probable with board support and minimal offer sweetening, fair valuation at 49.4p per share, potential...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

KKR/Assura: Possible Sweetened Offer

​KKR proposes 48.0p bid for Assura, showing interest in takeover. Assura's improved financial performance may support a higher offer. Market...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Sep25: ~10 Regular & Intra-Review Changes Likely in September

F100/250 Sep25 index changes will be confirmed after market close today. Yesterday was the base date for final ranks. Please see discussion point...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Swire, Shandong Hi-Speed, PRC Rural Bank Delistings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutch, GMO Internet, Prosus/Meituan, Piedmont Lithium

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Assura takeover by KKR and Stonepeak highly probable with board support and minimal offer sweetening, fair valuation at 49.4p per share, potential...

KKR proposes 48.0p bid for Assura, showing interest in takeover. Assura's improved financial performance may support a higher offer. Market...