Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> reported 4QFY03/2022 results yesterday. Reported revenue grew 13.4% YoY to JPY873.3bn (vs consensus JPY825.7bn) while the company reported operating losses of JPY1.7bn.</li>
<li>Revenue from Top 14 drugs grew 20.3% YoY, while revenue from top-seller Entyvio grew 15.0% YoY during the quarter. Excluding Entyvio, other top 13 drugs grew 23.3% during the period.</li>
<li>Takeda’s shares moved down 2.0% at the end of yesterday’s trading and down 3% during today’s trade as profit drop disappointed the market.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) reported 4QFY03/2022 results yesterday. Reported revenue grew 13.4% YoY to JPY873.3bn (vs consensus JPY825.7bn) while the company reported operating losses of JPY1.7bn.
Revenue from Top 14 drugs grew 20.3% YoY, while revenue from top-seller Entyvio grew 15.0% YoY during the quarter. Excluding Entyvio, other top 13 drugs grew 23.3% during the period.
Takeda’s shares moved down 2.0% at the end of yesterday’s trading and down 3% during today’s trade as profit drop disappointed the market.


Takeda 4QFY22: Top Line Expands and Pipeline Development Progresses Despite OP Drop

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> announces an off-market buyback, there will be demand to replace the shares bought back, re-based higher.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-east-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:341:1" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia (23 HK)</a>is trading cheap as Elliott throws in the towel.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a> selldown could be larger than people expect, and it is a decent chance to put on the arb trade. </li>
</ul>


If BHP Group (BHP AU) announces an off-market buyback, there will be demand to replace the shares bought back, re-based higher.

Bank of East Asia (23 HK)is trading cheap as Elliott throws in the towel.
The Sydney Airport (SYD AU) selldown could be larger than people expect, and it is a decent chance to put on the arb trade. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: BHP, Bank Of East Asia, Sydney Airport, Boral

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Large Japanese low-multiple pharma company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astellas-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6091:1" rel="noopener">Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)</a> yesterday announced earnings and this morning announced a buyback. </li>
<li>The buyback is small-ish, but the details are definitely worth knowing. </li>
<li>A play against peers for the period and afterwards may have some merit. If you have an execution axe, definitely worth a look.</li>
</ul>


Large Japanese low-multiple pharma company Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) yesterday announced earnings and this morning announced a buyback. 
The buyback is small-ish, but the details are definitely worth knowing. 
A play against peers for the period and afterwards may have some merit. If you have an execution axe, definitely worth a look.


Astellas Pharma (4503) Buyback - Short-Term Pressure Catalyst

<ul>
<li>Takeda is currently trading at JPY3,175 per share, slightly above its all-time low of JPY3,105 per share. Shares are currently at a 27% discount to its peak in March 2021.</li>
<li>The company has been divesting its non-core assets and reorganising its business around five core areas: GI, Rare Diseases, Plasma-Derived Therapies, Oncology, Neurosciences and Others.</li>
<li>Takeda’s share price started plunging after the suspension of a phase 2 study of TAK-994 in October 2021 following the emergence of a safety signal.</li>
</ul>


Takeda is currently trading at JPY3,175 per share, slightly above its all-time low of JPY3,105 per share. Shares are currently at a 27% discount to its peak in March 2021.
The company has been divesting its non-core assets and reorganising its business around five core areas: GI, Rare Diseases, Plasma-Derived Therapies, Oncology, Neurosciences and Others.
Takeda’s share price started plunging after the suspension of a phase 2 study of TAK-994 in October 2021 following the emergence of a safety signal.


Takeda: Excessive Reaction to Recent Setback in Trials; Drop in Share Price Offer Attractive Entry

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Kintor Pharmaceutical has a strong pipeline of seven first/best-in-class small molecule and biological therapeutics, with focus on multiple high incidence cancers and other androgen-receptor-related diseases having huge unmet medical needs. The company is set to launch its first product in China in this year, with sales expected to peak in next five years. Kintor also aims to launch at least two more products by the end of 2022. Apart from the base indications, its lead product has shown positive clinical results in COVID-19 trials, demonstrating its potential to become an effective treatment for the COVID-19 among the current therapies. In H1 2021, Kintor’s R&amp;D expenses increased 90% y/y to $42 million. In June, the company completed top-up placing with net proceeds of HKD 1.16 billion ($150 million). As of June 2021, Kintor had a cash balance of $262 million, which is sufficient to support its near-term R&amp;D and capital expenses. Although the stock has gained more than 400% this year, we believe there are more streams left. Following its listing in HKEX in May 2020, the stock was included in Hang Seng Composite Index this year. With the expected approvals for COVID-19, prostate cancer, and breast cancer, Kintor’s lead product has large market potential. The company aims to outlicense select products for rapid global expansions.

Kintor Pharmaceutical has a strong pipeline of seven first/best-in-class small molecule and biological therapeutics, with focus on multiple high incidence cancers and other androgen-receptor-related diseases having huge unmet medical needs. The company is set to launch its first product in China in this year, with sales expected to peak in next five years. Kintor also aims to launch at least two more products by the end of 2022. Apart from the base indications, its lead product has shown positive clinical results in COVID-19 trials, demonstrating its potential to become an effective treatment for the COVID-19 among the current therapies. In H1 2021, Kintor’s R&amp;D expenses increased 90% y/y to $42 million. In June, the company completed top-up placing with net proceeds of HKD 1.16 billion ($150 million). As of June 2021, Kintor had a cash balance of $262 million, which is sufficient to support its near-term R&amp;D and capital expenses. Although the stock has gained more than 400% this year, we believe there are more streams left. Following its listing in HKEX in May 2020, the stock was included in Hang Seng Composite Index this year. With the expected approvals for COVID-19, prostate cancer, and breast cancer, Kintor’s lead product has large market potential. The company aims to outlicense select products for rapid global expansions.   

Kintor Pharmaceutical (9939 HK) – Dual Play on COVID and Solid Tumors

Japan

Astellas Pharma Inc. is a pharmaceutical company committed to the therapeutic fields of Urology, Immunology including Transplantation and Infectious Diseases, Oncology, Neuroscience and DM Complications and Metabolic Diseases. With over 17,000 global employees, Astellas researches, develops, manufactures, and promotes its prescription drugs through subsidiaries in the US, Europe, and Asia

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Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)

Takeda 4QFY22: Top Line Expands and Pipeline Development Progresses Despite OP Drop

The decline in OP was due to divestitures which remained a key headwind for margins during the last fiscal year. Excluding these, core OP for 4Q...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Last Week in Event SPACE: BHP, Bank Of East Asia, Sydney Airport, Boral

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Astellas Pharma (4503) Buyback - Short-Term Pressure Catalyst

Astellas Pharma announced decent earnings and a buyback. It looks small but Astellas is not that liquid. This has impact. A short-term trade...

Travis Lundy

Kintor Pharmaceutical (9939 HK) – Dual Play on COVID and Solid Tumors

Kintor Pharma is set to fly high ahead of its first product launch in China for prostate cancer, which has high unmet medical need. COVID-19...

Tina Banerjee

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Takeda 4QFY22: Top Line Expands and Pipeline Development Progresses Despite OP Drop

The decline in OP was due to divestitures which remained a key headwind for margins during the last fiscal year. Excluding these, core OP for 4Q...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Last Week in Event SPACE: BHP, Bank Of East Asia, Sydney Airport, Boral

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Astellas Pharma (4503) Buyback - Short-Term Pressure Catalyst

Astellas Pharma announced decent earnings and a buyback. It looks small but Astellas is not that liquid. This has impact. A short-term trade...

Travis Lundy

Takeda: Excessive Reaction to Recent Setback in Trials; Drop in Share Price Offer Attractive Entry

Most recent setbacks in Takeda’s drug development trials have caused a panic in the market whether the company will be able to replace its top...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Kintor Pharmaceutical (9939 HK) – Dual Play on COVID and Solid Tumors

Kintor Pharma is set to fly high ahead of its first product launch in China for prostate cancer, which has high unmet medical need. COVID-19...

Tina Banerjee