Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.</li>
<li>There are 15 stocks that could have passive inflows from global trackers while 9 could see passive outflows in February.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
There are 15 stocks that could have passive inflows from global trackers while 9 could see passive outflows in February.


India: Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Titan: Titan’s top line grew 22% YoY to INR 141.6bn (HSIE: INR 148.2bn)</li><li>Jewellery (ex-bullion) sales grew 24% YoY to INR125.6bn (in-line)</li><li>Festive purchases resulted in double-digit buyer growth in jewellery, moderation was seen after Nov-23 though Consolidated EBITDAM contracted 55 bps YoY to 11% (in-line)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Titan: Titan’s top line grew 22% YoY to INR 141.6bn (HSIE: INR 148.2bn)Jewellery (ex-bullion) sales grew 24% YoY to INR125.6bn (in-line)Festive purchases resulted in double-digit buyer growth in jewellery, moderation was seen after Nov-23 though Consolidated EBITDAM contracted 55 bps YoY to 11% (in-line)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Titan, Astral, Aditya Birla Capital, IRB Infra

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Astral posted consolidated revenue growth of 8.1% YoY in Q3FY24, majorly led by growth in Plastic (+7.1% YoY) and Adhesive segment (+10.7% YoY).</li>
<li>The Plumbing division reported strong volume growth of 15% YoY while realisations decreased due to high volatility in PVC prices to Rs 189/kg. In Q3FY24, average realisations stood at Rs 189/kg (-6.8% YoY) and EBITDA stood stable at Rs 31/kg (-7.9% QoQ) which includes losses of Rs 4 Cr in the Sanitaryware and Faucets segments.</li>
<li>The company’s full-year volume growth guidance has been increased to +20% YoY (vs. 15% YoY earlier). </li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Astral posted consolidated revenue growth of 8.1% YoY in Q3FY24, majorly led by growth in Plastic (+7.1% YoY) and Adhesive segment (+10.7% YoY).
The Plumbing division reported strong volume growth of 15% YoY while realisations decreased due to high volatility in PVC prices to Rs 189/kg. In Q3FY24, average realisations stood at Rs 189/kg (-6.8% YoY) and EBITDA stood stable at Rs 31/kg (-7.9% QoQ) which includes losses of Rs 4 Cr in the Sanitaryware and Faucets segments.
The company’s full-year volume growth guidance has been increased to +20% YoY (vs. 15% YoY earlier). 

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astral Ltd - Continuous Inventory Losses Led to Lower Margins

<ul><li>In Q3FY24, our coverage universe’s revenue/EBITDA/APAT are expected to grow by 8/31/43% YoY respectively</li><li>Revenue growth is muted owing to sub-par demand for tiles, wood panels and lower realisation for pipes</li><li>EBITDA/ PAT will rise strongly, mainly owing to higher inventory loss (pipes) and gas price (tiles) in the base quarter</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In Q3FY24, our coverage universe’s revenue/EBITDA/APAT are expected to grow by 8/31/43% YoY respectivelyRevenue growth is muted owing to sub-par demand for tiles, wood panels and lower realisation for pipesEBITDA/ PAT will rise strongly, mainly owing to higher inventory loss (pipes) and gas price (tiles) in the base quarterContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Building Materials (Q3FY24 Results Preview): No Sign of Demand Revival, Stable Margins

Index Rebalance

Bharat Heavy Electricals / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.</li>
</ul>


There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.
The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

India

Astral Polytechnik Limited manufactures and markets CPVC plumbing systems for residential and industrial applications. The Company also manufactures ASTM solvent weld lead free PVC plumbing systems.

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Astral Ltd (ASTRA IN)

India: Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 3...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: Titan, Astral, Aditya Birla Capital, IRB Infra

Festive purchases resulted in double-digit buyer growth in jewellery, moderation was seen after Nov-23 though Consolidated EBITDAM contracted 55...

HDFC Securities

Astral Ltd - Continuous Inventory Losses Led to Lower Margins

Astral posted consolidated revenue growth of 8.1% YoY in Q3FY24, majorly led by growth in Plastic (+7.1% YoY) and Adhesive segment (+10.7% YoY).

Axis Direct

Building Materials (Q3FY24 Results Preview): No Sign of Demand Revival, Stable Margins

In Q3FY24, our coverage universe’s revenue/EBITDA/APAT are expected to grow by 8/31/43% YoY respectively. Revenue growth is muted owing to sub-par...

HDFC Securities

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

The adds and deletes have performed in line since announcement of the changes a little over a week ago. With 10 trading days to implementation,...

Brian Freitas

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