Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Back on the 8th June 2022, IFM Global Infrastructure Fund announced a 15% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a> (ATLAX), and subsequently floated the possibility of a non-binding proposal. </li>
<li>However, IFM's request, at the time, for limited company information on ATLAX , a US/Europe toll-road play, came to nought.</li>
<li>Undeterred, IFM continues to accumulate shares. Reportedly, IFM now holds ~35% after picking up 1.9% this morning.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 8th June 2022, IFM Global Infrastructure Fund announced a 15% stake in Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) (ATLAX), and subsequently floated the possibility of a non-binding proposal. 
However, IFM's request, at the time, for limited company information on ATLAX , a US/Europe toll-road play, came to nought.
Undeterred, IFM continues to accumulate shares. Reportedly, IFM now holds ~35% after picking up 1.9% this morning.


Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM Creeps To A ~35% Stake

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Multiple index families rebalance at the close today, driving huge flows across Australian stocks. Estimates indicate over A$5bn to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Among index adds, we see large flows in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eq-resources-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14984:1" rel="noopener">EQ Resources (EQR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/codan-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6189:1" rel="noopener">Codan (CDA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunrise-energy-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11810:1" rel="noopener">Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14712:1" rel="noopener">Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Among index deletes, the largest flows are in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining (EVN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cochlear-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:918:1" rel="noopener">Cochlear (COH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/graincorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18531:1" rel="noopener">Graincorp (GNC AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amalgamated-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20978:1" rel="noopener">Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Multiple index families rebalance at the close today, driving huge flows across Australian stocks. Estimates indicate over A$5bn to trade from passive trackers.
Among index adds, we see large flows in EQ Resources (EQR AU), Codan (CDA AU), Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL AU) and Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU). 
Among index deletes, the largest flows are in Evolution Mining (EVN AU), Atlas Arteria (ALX AU), Cochlear (COH AU), Graincorp (GNC AU) and Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU). 


Australia: A$5bn+ to Trade at the Close Today Across Local & Global Indices

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 changes for the ASX50, 1 for the ASX100, 6 for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and 16 adds/11 deletes for the ASX300 in September.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 indices.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months, but outperformance has reduced for the ASX50/ASX200 indices and has increased for the ASX100/ASX300 indices.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 changes for the ASX50, 1 for the ASX100, 6 for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and 16 adds/11 deletes for the ASX300 in September.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 indices.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months, but outperformance has reduced for the ASX50/ASX200 indices and has increased for the ASX100/ASX300 indices.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we present our final expectations for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 for the September 2026 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two changes for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and five changes for ASX 200. Separately, we see 13 ADDs and 10 DELs for ASX 300.</li>
<li>The Vault minerals deal could trigger index changes after the September 2026 index review.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we present our final expectations for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 for the September 2026 index rebal event.
We expect two changes for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and five changes for ASX 200. Separately, we see 13 ADDs and 10 DELs for ASX 300.
The Vault minerals deal could trigger index changes after the September 2026 index review.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep26: Final Expectations; Many High-Impact Names

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For July 2026, ten new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$7bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in July was ~51%, and a year-to-date average of ~48%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For July 2026, ten new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$7bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in July was ~51%, and a year-to-date average of ~48%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


Asia-Pac M&A [July 2026 Wrap]: Dentsu Soken, Perpetual, OFX, Ns United Kaiun, Gabia, SK Signet, Dida

Australia

Atlas Arteria Limted operates as an infrastructure developer and operator. The Company constructs highways, roads, bridges, and tunnels. Atlas Arteria also collects toll. Atlas Arteria serves clients worldwide.

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Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)