Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The U.S. has continued to separate itself from broad emerging market and developed international indexes. One positive is that MSCI EM and MSCI EAFE have been able to stabilize from a price perspective in recent weeks despite relative strength weakness vs. MSCI ACWI.  In today’s report we scour the globe for attractive investments, ex-U.S., in an environment where selectivity is key.

The U.S. has continued to separate itself from broad emerging market and developed international indexes. One positive is that MSCI EM and MSCI EAFE have been able to stabilize from a price perspective in recent weeks despite relative strength weakness vs. MSCI ACWI.  In today’s report we scour the globe for attractive investments, ex-U.S., in an environment where selectivity is key.  

Global Equity Strategy: Where to Hide Outside the U.S.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely.

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely. 

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Auckland Airport (AIA) has underperformed the NZX50 over the past 10 years, in part due to the foregone earnings through COVID and the need for new capital, but also in part due to slowing pax growth, falling commercial yields, and higher bond rates.</li><li>This provides a degree of certainty over AIA’s strong EBITDA-growth outlook through to FY32, the end of its next five-year pricing window, PSE5.</li><li>While we have a positive view of AIA’s share-price performance over the medium term, as PSE5 earnings are increasingly factored into relative multiples, there is insufficient valuation appeal on a 12-month horizon.</li></ul>

Auckland Airport (AIA) has underperformed the NZX50 over the past 10 years, in part due to the foregone earnings through COVID and the need for new capital, but also in part due to slowing pax growth, falling commercial yields, and higher bond rates.This provides a degree of certainty over AIA’s strong EBITDA-growth outlook through to FY32, the end of its next five-year pricing window, PSE5.While we have a positive view of AIA’s share-price performance over the medium term, as PSE5 earnings are increasingly factored into relative multiples, there is insufficient valuation appeal on a 12-month horizon.

Auckland Airport Aero Flight Path Clearer

<ul><li>We expect Auckland Airport (AIA) to report a record FY25 underlying NPAT of NZ$307m, near the midpoint of management’s NZ$290m–NZ$320m guidance range.</li><li>The regulatory uncertainty overhanging AIA has largely lifted.</li><li>However, continued constraints in airline capacity, near-term duty-free disruption, and ongoing opex cost pressures are likely to lead to a subdued FY26 growth outlook.</li></ul>

We expect Auckland Airport (AIA) to report a record FY25 underlying NPAT of NZ$307m, near the midpoint of management’s NZ$290m–NZ$320m guidance range.The regulatory uncertainty overhanging AIA has largely lifted.However, continued constraints in airline capacity, near-term duty-free disruption, and ongoing opex cost pressures are likely to lead to a subdued FY26 growth outlook.

Auckland Airport FY25 Preview—Record Altitude, Cruising Ahead

Channel Infrastructure NZ Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Channel Infrastructure’s (CHI) operating throughput for 2Q25 was mixed, but it is difficult to get a strong read on underlying trends due to Wiri storage tank outages impacting stock levels.</li><li>Key jet movements at Auckland Airport (AIA) are showing green shoots of improvement, albeit overall aircraft movements remain well below pre-COVID levels.</li><li>While an investment decision on the bio-refinery has been pushed back to 2026, we believe this reflects the complexity of the project rather than an increased risk that it will not proceed.</li></ul>

Channel Infrastructure’s (CHI) operating throughput for 2Q25 was mixed, but it is difficult to get a strong read on underlying trends due to Wiri storage tank outages impacting stock levels.Key jet movements at Auckland Airport (AIA) are showing green shoots of improvement, albeit overall aircraft movements remain well below pre-COVID levels.While an investment decision on the bio-refinery has been pushed back to 2026, we believe this reflects the complexity of the project rather than an increased risk that it will not proceed.

Channel Infrastructure Block Out The Noise—2Q25 Op Stats

New Zealand

Auckland International Airport Limited owns and operates the Auckland International Airport.  The Airport includes a single runway, an international terminal and two domestic terminals.  The Airport also has commercial facilities which includes airfreight operations, car rental services, commercial banking center and office buildings.

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Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)

Global Equity Strategy: Where to Hide Outside the U.S.

The U.S. has continued to separate itself from broad emerging market and developed international indexes. One positive is that MSCI EM and MSCI...

Vermilion Research

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major...

Vermilion Research

Auckland Airport Aero Flight Path Clearer

Auckland Airport (AIA) has underperformed the NZX50 over the past 10 years, in part due to the foregone earnings through COVID and the need for new...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport FY25 Preview—Record Altitude, Cruising Ahead

We expect Auckland Airport (AIA) to report a record FY25 underlying NPAT of NZ$307m, near the midpoint of management’s NZ$290m–NZ$320m guidance range.

Forsyth Barr

Channel Infrastructure Block Out The Noise—2Q25 Op Stats

Channel Infrastructure’s (CHI) operating throughput for 2Q25 was mixed, but it is difficult to get a strong read on underlying trends due to Wiri...

Forsyth Barr

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