New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We upgrade our rating on ​​​​​​​Auckland Airport (AIA) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM due to: (1) earnings upgrades following the FY24 result, (2) reduced regulatory risk following the Commerce Commission's (ComCom) recent interim report on AIA's aeronautical pricing (PSE4), and (3) recent relative share price underperformance, despite softening bond rates. AIA's FY24 result was broadly in line with market expectations, though first time FY25 earnings guidance leads us to materially lift our NPAT estimates, despite only marginal increases in operating income.</li><li>The pax recovery may be lagging, but the earnings recovery remains in full swing. Both FY24 EBITDA and NPAT are above FY19 levels.</li><li>AIA currently trades at ~20x one year forward EV/EBITDA and ~36x PE. Its valuation premium, relative to the domestic market and other infrastructure players, remains above historical levels (justified by a higher RAB and valuation multiple, now applicable for its aeronautical assets), but has retreated to levels that we are more comfortable with.  </li></ul>

We upgrade our rating on ​​​​​​​Auckland Airport (AIA) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM due to: (1) earnings upgrades following the FY24 result, (2) reduced regulatory risk following the Commerce Commission's (ComCom) recent interim report on AIA's aeronautical pricing (PSE4), and (3) recent relative share price underperformance, despite softening bond rates. AIA's FY24 result was broadly in line with market expectations, though first time FY25 earnings guidance leads us to materially lift our NPAT estimates, despite only marginal increases in operating income.The pax recovery may be lagging, but the earnings recovery remains in full swing. Both FY24 EBITDA and NPAT are above FY19 levels.AIA currently trades at ~20x one year forward EV/EBITDA and ~36x PE. Its valuation premium, relative to the domestic market and other infrastructure players, remains above historical levels (justified by a higher RAB and valuation multiple, now applicable for its aeronautical assets), but has retreated to levels that we are more comfortable with.  

Auckland Airport - FY24 — Capex Has Taken-Off

<ul><li>Auckland Airport (AIA) will report further progress in its post-COVID recovery when its releases its FY24 result on 22 August 2024.</li><li>Better retail yields and continued robust progress in investment property should compensate for lower-than-anticipated pax, with AIA likely to report underlying NPAT comfortably within its NZ$260m–NZ$280m guidance range.</li><li>However, first time guidance for FY25 may underwhelm, despite favourable aeronautical pricing (with potential price cuts due from FY26), given a constrained airline capacity outlook and the rapidly rising P&amp;L costs of depreciation and interest. </li></ul>

Auckland Airport (AIA) will report further progress in its post-COVID recovery when its releases its FY24 result on 22 August 2024.Better retail yields and continued robust progress in investment property should compensate for lower-than-anticipated pax, with AIA likely to report underlying NPAT comfortably within its NZ$260m–NZ$280m guidance range.However, first time guidance for FY25 may underwhelm, despite favourable aeronautical pricing (with potential price cuts due from FY26), given a constrained airline capacity outlook and the rapidly rising P&amp;L costs of depreciation and interest. 

Auckland Airport - FY24 Preview — Final Approach

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/redox-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39847:1" rel="noopener">Redox (RDX AU)</a>, a chemical and ingredients distributor, raised US$270m in its IPO in Jun 2023. Some of its founding family shareholders will be released from their IPO lockup soon.</li>
<li>Redox primarily serves the ANZ market, and it has a presence in Malaysia and the US. It is one of the largest chemicals and ingredients distributors in Australia.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Redox (RDX AU), a chemical and ingredients distributor, raised US$270m in its IPO in Jun 2023. Some of its founding family shareholders will be released from their IPO lockup soon.
Redox primarily serves the ANZ market, and it has a presence in Malaysia and the US. It is one of the largest chemicals and ingredients distributors in Australia.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


Redox IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Limited Liquidity Might Provide a Good Excuse to Sell

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infratil-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:596:1" rel="noopener">Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ)</a> aims to raise around US$613m (NZ$1bn) via an institutional placement.</li>
<li>Proceeds from the placement will be used to fund IFT’s share of capex for its data center arm, CDC.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ) aims to raise around US$613m (NZ$1bn) via an institutional placement.
Proceeds from the placement will be used to fund IFT’s share of capex for its data center arm, CDC.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Infratil Placement - Riding the AI Wave, but Deal Timing Seems Opportunistic

Podcast by Magellan Asset Management, Magellan Asset Management

MAGELLAN - IN THE KNOW

Podcast by Magellan Asset Management

Magellan Asset Management

‘In The Know’ is a new monthly investment podcast brought to you by Magellan Asset Management, one of Australia’s leading global equities investors. We seek to bring you timely, unique and thought-provoking insights to help you make sense of today’s investment landscape. From deep dives into the latest macroeconomic and geopolitical issues, to our analysis on sectors and stocks on global markets. Join Magellan, as they connect with a myriad of experts in their field, including CEOs of stocks we hold, global leaders and consultants in finance, investing, risk and politics, and key members of our investment team and business. ‘In The Know’ - a monthly podcast from Magellan is worth investing your time in! Magellan - Experts in global investing.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Gerald Stack, Ben McVicar, and Ofa Karlina discuss investing in infrastructure and the opportunities it offers</li>
<li>Infrastructure assets provide essential services like energy, water, and transport, leading to reliable and predictable long-term demand</li>
<li>Short-term problems or opportunities in infrastructure companies can impact share prices, creating investment opportunities for savvy investors</li>
</ul>
<p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>


Gerald Stack, Ben McVicar, and Ofa Karlina discuss investing in infrastructure and the opportunities it offers
Infrastructure assets provide essential services like energy, water, and transport, leading to reliable and predictable long-term demand
Short-term problems or opportunities in infrastructure companies can impact share prices, creating investment opportunities for savvy investors

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Lessons Learnt from Investing in Essential Services

New Zealand

Auckland International Airport Limited owns and operates the Auckland International Airport.  The Airport includes a single runway, an international terminal and two domestic terminals.  The Airport also has commercial facilities which includes airfreight operations, car rental services, commercial banking center and office buildings.

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Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)

Auckland Airport - FY24 — Capex Has Taken-Off

The pax recovery may be lagging, but the earnings recovery remains in full swing. Both FY24 EBITDA and NPAT are above FY19 levels.

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport - FY24 Preview — Final Approach

Auckland Airport (AIA) will report further progress in its post-COVID recovery when its releases its FY24 result on 22 August 2024.

Forsyth Barr

Redox IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Limited Liquidity Might Provide a Good Excuse to Sell

Redox (RDX AU), a chemical and ingredients distributor, raised US$270m in its IPO in Jun 2023. Some of its founding family shareholders will be...

Sumeet Singh

Infratil Placement - Riding the AI Wave, but Deal Timing Seems Opportunistic

Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ) aims to raise around US$613m (NZ$1bn) via an institutional placement. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run...

Sumeet Singh

Lessons Learnt from Investing in Essential Services

The podcast explores the benefits of investing in infrastructure assets for reliable long-term cash flows and opportunities for growth.

MAGELLAN - IN THE KNOW

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