IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23700:1" rel="noopener">Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-industrials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36875:1" rel="noopener">JD Industrials (2231713D CH)</a></em></strong> and <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jingdong-property-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36871:1" rel="noopener">JD Property (JDP HK)</a></em></strong> IPOs.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments  <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kenedix-office-investment-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16263:1" rel="noopener">Kenedix Office Investment Co (8972 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abacus-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10566:1" rel="noopener">Abacus Property (ABP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesserent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30716:1" rel="noopener">Tesserent Ltd (TNT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hailan-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39776:1" rel="noopener">Hailan Holdings (2278 HK)</a>, Yitai Coal</em></strong>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ), Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN), JD Industrials (2231713D CH) and JD Property (JDP HK) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments  Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Kenedix Office Investment Co (8972 JP), Abacus Property (ABP AU), Austal Ltd (ASB AU), Tesserent Ltd (TNT AU), Hailan Holdings (2278 HK), Yitai Coal. 


Weekly Deals Digest (18 Jun) - Toshiba, Kenedix, Abacus Storage King, Austal, Hailan, Yitai Coal

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<div><p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.</p></div><div>We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centuria-capital-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15546:1" rel="noopener">Centuria Capital (CNI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinnacle-investment-manageme" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20624:1" rel="noopener">Wilson (PNI AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sealink-travel-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6400:1" rel="noopener">Sealink Travel (SLK AU)</a> while the potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nrw-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9271:1" rel="noopener">NRW Holdings (NWH AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13914:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Resources (GXY AU)</a> is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> is a close add and the corresponding deletion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.</div><div></div><div>For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>, the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.</div>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - Centuria Capital (CNI AU), Wilson (PNI AU) and Sealink Travel (SLK AU) while the potential deletions are Nuix Limited (NXL AU), NRW Holdings (NWH AU) and G8 Education (GEM AU).
Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU).
De Grey Mining (DEG AU) is a close add and the corresponding deletion is Westgold Resources (WGX AU).There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.For G8 Education (GEM AU), the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

<p>Post market close today, S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices announced the list of changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the June index review that will be effective after the close of trading on 18 June.</p><p>There are 3 sets of the changes to the index at the June review.</p><p>The inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chalice-gold-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20193:1" rel="noopener">Chalice Gold Mines (CHN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a>. </p><p>The deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perenti-global-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20505:1" rel="noopener">Perenti Global (PRN AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/resolute-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1960:1" rel="noopener">Resolute Mining (RSG AU)</a>. </p><p>There are only 5 trading days to implementation of the changes and quite a lot to trade for passive funds. There are no real surprises and there will be pre-positioning in some of the names.</p><p>Short interest has been dropping on the inclusions and rising on the deletions, another sign of pre-positioning prior to the announcement of the changes. We estimate more than half the passive flow has already been positioned for.</p>

Post market close today, S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices announced the list of changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the June index review that will be effective after the close of trading on 18 June.There are 3 sets of the changes to the index at the June review.The inclusions are Chalice Gold Mines (CHN AU), Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU) and Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU). The deletions are Austal Ltd (ASB AU), Perenti Global (PRN AU) and Resolute Mining (RSG AU). There are only 5 trading days to implementation of the changes and quite a lot to trade for passive funds. There are no real surprises and there will be pre-positioning in some of the names.Short interest has been dropping on the inclusions and rising on the deletions, another sign of pre-positioning prior to the announcement of the changes. We estimate more than half the passive flow has already been positioned for.

ASX200 Index Rebalance: A Lot of Pre-Positions Built Up

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>A lift in new dwelling investment to a record high has underpinned Australia's current housing expansion.  The revolution in Australian housing reflects a shift towards higher density dwellings.  Building approvals for high density dwellings now accounts for half of residential approvals, well above the historical norm of around one-third.  Moreover, within the higher density segment, there has been a shift towards apartment blocks with four or more storeys.</li><li>Evidente believes that Australia's housing revolution is here to stay.  Australia's urban population density is still amongst the lowest in the world, consumer tastes continue to evolve towards more affordable, apartment living, and there are simply physical limits to the urban sprawl in Australia's major cities.</li><li>I identify two listed stocks that are leveraged to the prospect of strong growth in transport infrastructure designed to ease traffic congestion associated with more higher density dwellings: toll road operator, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/593" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:593">Transurban Group (TCL AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12350" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12350">Downer EDI Ltd (DOW AU)</a>, which generates more than one-third of its revenues from its transport services and rail divisions.</li><li>Around the new normal however, booms and busts are inevitable. The RBA has identified a growing risk of over-supply of apartments emerging in inner city Brisbane and Melbourne.  Bank exposures here are limited such that apartment prices would need to drop by more than 25% for banks to experience material losses.  Evidente's model portfolio remains modestly overweight Australia's major banks due to the large P/B discount relative to industrials.</li></ul>

A lift in new dwelling investment to a record high has underpinned Australia's current housing expansion.  The revolution in Australian housing reflects a shift towards higher density dwellings.  Building approvals for high density dwellings now accounts for half of residential approvals, well above the historical norm of around one-third.  Moreover, within the higher density segment, there has been a shift towards apartment blocks with four or more storeys.Evidente believes that Australia's housing revolution is here to stay.  Australia's urban population density is still amongst the lowest in the world, consumer tastes continue to evolve towards more affordable, apartment living, and there are simply physical limits to the urban sprawl in Australia's major cities.I identify two listed stocks that are leveraged to the prospect of strong growth in transport infrastructure designed to ease traffic congestion associated with more higher density dwellings: toll road operator, Transurban Group (TCL AU), and Downer EDI Ltd (DOW AU), which generates more than one-third of its revenues from its transport services and rail divisions.Around the new normal however, booms and busts are inevitable. The RBA has identified a growing risk of over-supply of apartments emerging in inner city Brisbane and Melbourne.  Bank exposures here are limited such that apartment prices would need to drop by more than 25% for banks to experience material losses.  Evidente's model portfolio remains modestly overweight Australia's major banks due to the large P/B discount relative to industrials.

Australia's Housing Revolution Continues, but for How Much Longer?

Frontier and emerging markets (Vietnam)

Dylan Waller

Nomadic Equity

<p>Today I am speaking with Simon Skerrett, COO and Co-founder of CommStream Capital Limited, Australia's first agricultural streaming company which partners with progressive farmers to provide capital solutions to fund productivity growth and innovation.</p><p>With drastic shortages of capital in Australian farming, CommStream leverages its industry expertise and relationships to bring farmers an overdue, innovative financing solution, which drives productivity growth and helps fund generational…</p>

Today I am speaking with Simon Skerrett, COO and Co-founder of CommStream Capital Limited, Australia's first agricultural streaming company which partners with progressive farmers to provide capital solutions to fund productivity growth and innovation.With drastic shortages of capital in Australian farming, CommStream leverages its industry expertise and relationships to bring farmers an overdue, innovative financing solution, which drives productivity growth and helps fund generational…

CommStream Capital Limited Interview: Insight From Australia's First Agricultural Streaming Company

Australia

Austal Limited is an emerging global defence prime contractor. The Group supplies vessel platforms such as the Littoral Combat Ship and the Joint High Speed Vessel to the United States Navy, an extensive range of patrol and auxiliary vessels to defence forces around the world, and installs and maintains military communications, radar and command and control systems.

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Austal Ltd (ASB AU)

Weekly Deals Digest (18 Jun) - Toshiba, Kenedix, Abacus Storage King, Austal, Hailan, Yitai Coal

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Toshiba, Kenedix, Abacus, Austal, Tesserent, Hailan, Yitai Coal, Oishi) and ECM (Amman...

Arun George

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

We see 3 potential changes to the ASX200 at the Sep rebalance with CNI, PNI and SLK being included and NXL, NRW and GEM being deleted. Passive...

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Rebalance: A Lot of Pre-Positions Built Up

There are 2 sets of changes to the ASX200 with CHN, ORE and UWL replacing ASB, PRN and RSG. There are 5 trading days to implementation, significant...

Brian Freitas

Australia's Housing Revolution Continues, but for How Much Longer?

A lift in new dwelling investment to a record high has underpinned Australia's current housing expansion. The revolution in Australian housing...

Sam Ferraro

CommStream Capital Limited Interview: Insight From Australia's First Agricultural Streaming Company

Today I am speaking with Simon Skerrett, COO and Co-founder of CommStream Capital Limited, Australia's first agricultural streaming company which...

Nomadic Equity

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