Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The HHS rescheduled the CDC’s postponed February ACIP (vaccine experts panel) meeting for mid-April, with a revised agenda to include the ongoing measles outbreak.</li><li>Flu vaccine guidelines for fall strains are not on the schedule, as the <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">FDA issued recommendations without the usual ACIP guidance. </span></li><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">The </span>CDC’s Division of HIV Prevention is under review, which could disrupt a major funding source of HIV prophylaxis (PrEP) drugs (GILD, GSK). </li></ul>

The HHS rescheduled the CDC’s postponed February ACIP (vaccine experts panel) meeting for mid-April, with a revised agenda to include the ongoing measles outbreak.Flu vaccine guidelines for fall strains are not on the schedule, as the FDA issued recommendations without the usual ACIP guidance. The CDC’s Division of HIV Prevention is under review, which could disrupt a major funding source of HIV prophylaxis (PrEP) drugs (GILD, GSK). 

Biopharma Week in Review - March 24, 2025

<ul><li>We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&amp;A.</li><li>Last week, HIMS and unapproved GLP-1 sellers (LFMD) were put on notice by the FDA.</li><li>KZR’s study was stopped and placed on clinical hold, but the stock rose.</li></ul>

We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&amp;A.Last week, HIMS and unapproved GLP-1 sellers (LFMD) were put on notice by the FDA.KZR’s study was stopped and placed on clinical hold, but the stock rose.

Biopharma Week in Review - October 7, 2024

<ul><li>We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&amp;A.</li><li>Last week, ALDX completed the additional study needed to resubmit dry eye NDA.</li><li>Kidney disease drugs continue to benefit from regulatory tailwinds, as NVS gained IgAN approval and APLS succeeded in a pivotal biomarker study in C3G/IC- MPGN.</li></ul>

We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&amp;A.Last week, ALDX completed the additional study needed to resubmit dry eye NDA.Kidney disease drugs continue to benefit from regulatory tailwinds, as NVS gained IgAN approval and APLS succeeded in a pivotal biomarker study in C3G/IC- MPGN.

Biopharma Week in Review - August 12, 2024

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<ul>
<li>Novartis (NVS) has agreed to acquire Avidity Biosciences (RNA) in the first half of 2026.</li>
<li>As part of the transaction, Novartis will acquire Avidity’s RNA therapeutics platform and pipeline focused on neuromuscular diseases.</li>
<li>Avidity’s RNA programs targeting cardiovascular disease will be separated into a new independent company called Atrium (expected to trade under the same RNA ticker) and distributed to existing shareholders.</li>
</ul>


Novartis (NVS) has agreed to acquire Avidity Biosciences (RNA) in the first half of 2026.
As part of the transaction, Novartis will acquire Avidity’s RNA therapeutics platform and pipeline focused on neuromuscular diseases.
Avidity’s RNA programs targeting cardiovascular disease will be separated into a new independent company called Atrium (expected to trade under the same RNA ticker) and distributed to existing shareholders.


HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Based on 25Q2 sales data of Semaglutide and Tirzepatide, the penetration rate of both T2D and weight loss indications is approaching ceiling. The inflection point of GLP-1 market has arrived.</li>
<li>When the gap of clinical progress in EU/US markets is too large, these drugs may not even be on the same tier, and thus do not constitute substantive competition.</li>
<li>Novartis has approached Avidity Biosciences with an acquisition offer. We think price range of $9-11B is justified by 3-5x peak sales multiples and strategic urgency.</li>
</ul>


Based on 25Q2 sales data of Semaglutide and Tirzepatide, the penetration rate of both T2D and weight loss indications is approaching ceiling. The inflection point of GLP-1 market has arrived.
When the gap of clinical progress in EU/US markets is too large, these drugs may not even be on the same tier, and thus do not constitute substantive competition.
Novartis has approached Avidity Biosciences with an acquisition offer. We think price range of $9-11B is justified by 3-5x peak sales multiples and strategic urgency.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.17) - GLP-1s Inflection Point, Novartis to Acquire Avidity Biosciences

United States

Avidity Biosciences LLC operates as a biotechnology company. The Company develops and discovers novel antibody oligonucleotide conjugates therapeutics that overcome current barriers to the delivery of oligonucleotides and unlock their potential to treat a wide range of serious diseases. Avidity Biosciences serves customers in the United States.

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Avidity Biosciences (RNA US)

Biopharma Week in Review - March 24, 2025

The HHS rescheduled the CDC’s postponed February ACIP (vaccine experts panel) meeting for mid-April, with a revised agenda to include the ongoing...

Water Tower Research

Biopharma Week in Review - October 7, 2024

Last week, HIMS and unapproved GLP-1 sellers (LFMD) were put on notice by the FDA. KZR’s study was stopped and placed on clinical hold, but the...

Water Tower Research

Biopharma Week in Review - August 12, 2024

We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&A.

Water Tower Research

Weekly Update (ANGI, MEDXF, RNA)

Novartis (NVS) has agreed to acquire Avidity Biosciences (RNA) in the first half of 2026. As part of the transaction, Novartis will acquire...

Richard Howe

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.17) - GLP-1s Inflection Point, Novartis to Acquire Avidity Biosciences

Semaglutide/Tirzepatide sales data show GLP-1 market reaching inflection point. Novartis approached Avidity with an acquisition offer. Price range...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Biopharma Week in Review - March 24, 2025

The HHS rescheduled the CDC’s postponed February ACIP (vaccine experts panel) meeting for mid-April, with a revised agenda to include the ongoing...

Water Tower Research

Biopharma Week in Review - October 7, 2024

Last week, HIMS and unapproved GLP-1 sellers (LFMD) were put on notice by the FDA. KZR’s study was stopped and placed on clinical hold, but the...

Water Tower Research

Biopharma Week in Review - August 12, 2024

We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&A.

Water Tower Research

Weekly Update (ANGI, MEDXF, RNA)

Novartis (NVS) has agreed to acquire Avidity Biosciences (RNA) in the first half of 2026. As part of the transaction, Novartis will acquire...

Richard Howe

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.17) - GLP-1s Inflection Point, Novartis to Acquire Avidity Biosciences

​Semaglutide/Tirzepatide sales data show GLP-1 market reaching inflection point. Novartis approached Avidity with an acquisition offer. Price range...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Semaglutide/Tirzepatide sales data show GLP-1 market reaching inflection point. Novartis approached Avidity with an acquisition offer. Price range...