European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Akzo–Axalta merger provides strong industrial logic and substantial synergies, but value allocation favours Akzo via its large dividend and greater synergy share, driving emerging Axalta shareholder resistance.</li>
<li>Axalta trades above adjusted deal value, implying a 2–3% bump. Artisan and Shapiro opposition increases pressure to improve terms, but current pricing already embeds bump expectations, making arbitrage unattractive.</li>
<li>At €26.21, expected returns are negative across scenarios without a larger, near-certain bump. Break risk dominates, making the trade unattractive. Recommendation: avoid initiating AXTA-long/AKZO-short positions until spread materially widens.</li>
</ul>


The Akzo–Axalta merger provides strong industrial logic and substantial synergies, but value allocation favours Akzo via its large dividend and greater synergy share, driving emerging Axalta shareholder resistance.
Axalta trades above adjusted deal value, implying a 2–3% bump. Artisan and Shapiro opposition increases pressure to improve terms, but current pricing already embeds bump expectations, making arbitrage unattractive.
At €26.21, expected returns are negative across scenarios without a larger, near-certain bump. Break risk dominates, making the trade unattractive. Recommendation: avoid initiating AXTA-long/AKZO-short positions until spread materially widens.


Axalta Through Deal Value: Market Pricing a Bump, Not a Spread

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

Axalta Coating Systems / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In today's edition: • ABN Amro | announced further reduction of its flexible workforce • AkzoNobel | Cevian pledges support for AkzoNobel/Axalta merger • InPost | enters cross-border deal with Austrian Post for business customers • Unilever | said to be exploring the sale of three UK heritage brands • Corbion | targets adjusted EBITDA of approx. EUR 300m by 2028 • bpostgroup | renews contract with Amazon for 5 years</li></ul>

In today's edition: • ABN Amro | announced further reduction of its flexible workforce • AkzoNobel | Cevian pledges support for AkzoNobel/Axalta merger • InPost | enters cross-border deal with Austrian Post for business customers • Unilever | said to be exploring the sale of three UK heritage brands • Corbion | targets adjusted EBITDA of approx. EUR 300m by 2028 • bpostgroup | renews contract with Amazon for 5 years

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd - What's News in Amsterdam

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Axalta Coating Systems delivered a mixed set of third-quarter results that highlighted both operational strength and market headwinds.</li><li>The company generated approximately $1.3 billion in net sales, a 2% year-over-year decline due to macroeconomic softness in North America, particularly in the Performance Coatings segment.</li><li>Despite the top-line pressure, Axalta achieved record adjusted EBITDA of $294 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.8%, marking its twelfth consecutive quarter of year-over-year EBITDA and margin growth.</li></ul>

Axalta Coating Systems delivered a mixed set of third-quarter results that highlighted both operational strength and market headwinds.The company generated approximately $1.3 billion in net sales, a 2% year-over-year decline due to macroeconomic softness in North America, particularly in the Performance Coatings segment.Despite the top-line pressure, Axalta achieved record adjusted EBITDA of $294 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.8%, marking its twelfth consecutive quarter of year-over-year EBITDA and margin growth.

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)<ul><li>Axalta's stock has dropped 28% despite strong growth from a new management team in the coatings industry.</li><li>Concerns about volume weakness in the key refinish business may be cyclical rather than secular, with potential improvement expected by late 2025.</li><li>With a 25% market share in refinish coatings and high barriers to entry, Axalta could see its stock rise to $41 if it reverts to historical valuation multiples.</li></ul>This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Key points (machine generated)Axalta's stock has dropped 28% despite strong growth from a new management team in the coatings industry.Concerns about volume weakness in the key refinish business may be cyclical rather than secular, with potential improvement expected by late 2025.With a 25% market share in refinish coatings and high barriers to entry, Axalta could see its stock rise to $41 if it reverts to historical valuation multiples.This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd (AXTA) - Monday, Jul 21, 2025

<ul><li>Axalta Coating Systems reported their Q2 2025 financial results, showcasing a mixed picture of performance and challenges in various segments.</li><li>The company's record adjusted EBITDA of $292 million and adjusted diluted EPS underscore their ability to sustain profitability even in a volatile macroeconomic landscape.</li><li>Notably, adjusted EBITDA margins remained strong at over 22%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of hitting or exceeding their 21% target outlined in their A Plan.</li></ul>

Axalta Coating Systems reported their Q2 2025 financial results, showcasing a mixed picture of performance and challenges in various segments.The company's record adjusted EBITDA of $292 million and adjusted diluted EPS underscore their ability to sustain profitability even in a volatile macroeconomic landscape.Notably, adjusted EBITDA margins remained strong at over 22%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of hitting or exceeding their 21% target outlined in their A Plan.

Axalta Coating Systems Taps China & Latin America: Can They Build Volumes & Enable Global Mobility Expansion?

United States

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. manufactures, markets and distributes coatings systems. The Company offers products and services which includes paint, color matching tools, application technologies, and customer  training and business management systems. Axalta Coating Systems serves automotive, transportation,  general industrial, and architectural and decorative sectors.

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Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA US)

Axalta Through Deal Value: Market Pricing a Bump, Not a Spread

Akzo–Axalta combines strong industrial logic with sizable synergies, but value skews to Akzo. Axalta trades above deal terms, implying a bump....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd - What's News in Amsterdam

In today's edition: • ABN Amro | announced further reduction of its flexible workforce • AkzoNobel | Cevian pledges support for AkzoNobel/Axalta...

The IDEA!

Axalta Coating Systems: How 2

Axalta Coating Systems delivered a mixed set of third-quarter results that highlighted both operational strength and market headwinds. The company...

Baptista Research

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd (AXTA) - Monday, Jul 21, 2025

Axalta's stock has dropped 28% despite strong growth under new management, with concerns over its key refinish business seen as cyclical,...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

Axalta Coating Systems Taps China & Latin America: Can They Build Volumes & Enable Global Mobility Expansion?

Axalta Coating Systems reported their Q2 2025 financial results, showcasing a mixed picture of performance and challenges in various segments. The...

Baptista Research

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