Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Welcome to this week’s edition of the Great Game.</li>
<li>We give you our take on the hottest geopolitical topics of relevance to your portfolio.</li>
<li>This week, we cover the 3 biggest geopolitical risks for markets right now and what to look our for.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to this week’s edition of the Great Game.
We give you our take on the hottest geopolitical topics of relevance to your portfolio.
This week, we cover the 3 biggest geopolitical risks for markets right now and what to look our for.


Great Game – The 3 Biggest Geopolitical Risks for Markets Right Now

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Capesize futures outperformed significantly, rising 127% versus 63% for Panamax from January to April, as Chinese iron ore restocking, higher fuel costs, and vessel constraints favored larger vessels.</li>
<li>Options markets remained decisively bullish, with Capesize and Panamax volume PCR of 0.34 and 0.27 respectively, while growing call activity in 2027 expiries signals expectations of a prolonged pricing impact.</li>
<li>The Middle-East conflict triggered a rise in freight risk premiums and volatility, but April’s moderation in IV and slowing OI growth suggest traders may expect stabilization rather than further escalation.</li>
</ul>


Capesize futures outperformed significantly, rising 127% versus 63% for Panamax from January to April, as Chinese iron ore restocking, higher fuel costs, and vessel constraints favored larger vessels.
Options markets remained decisively bullish, with Capesize and Panamax volume PCR of 0.34 and 0.27 respectively, while growing call activity in 2027 expiries signals expectations of a prolonged pricing impact.
The Middle-East conflict triggered a rise in freight risk premiums and volatility, but April’s moderation in IV and slowing OI growth suggest traders may expect stabilization rather than further escalation.


Dry Bulk Freight Derivatives Chartbook (Jan-April 2026)

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Takeaways: Energy freight rates still not reacting to troubles in the Red Sea</li><li>This week saw another increase in container freight rate.</li><li>Seasonality working against higher freight rates. <em><span style="font-weight: 400;">That changes by April. </span></em></li></ul>

Takeaways: Energy freight rates still not reacting to troubles in the Red SeaThis week saw another increase in container freight rate.Seasonality working against higher freight rates. That changes by April. 

Suez and EIA Watch – Demand / Supply Getting Out of Balance?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Takeaway:China serves as the primary deflationary force in the global macroeconomic landscape.</li><li>Despite China’s slowing growth, potential policy responses might paradoxically exacerbate deflationary pressures.</li><li>We anticipate rising inflation risks linked to potential supply shocks resulting from geopolitical developments.</li></ul>

Takeaway:China serves as the primary deflationary force in the global macroeconomic landscape.Despite China’s slowing growth, potential policy responses might paradoxically exacerbate deflationary pressures.We anticipate rising inflation risks linked to potential supply shocks resulting from geopolitical developments.

EM by EM #39: All Roads Out of China Lead to Goods Disinflation

<ul><li>Takeaways: Price increases in goods likely to show up in Europe after the Summer</li><li>Watch out for energy prices once we start to fill up for next heating season</li><li>The recent turmoil in freight rates will likely exacerbate the divergence between US and the Eurozone</li></ul>

Takeaways: Price increases in goods likely to show up in Europe after the SummerWatch out for energy prices once we start to fill up for next heating seasonThe recent turmoil in freight rates will likely exacerbate the divergence between US and the Eurozone

Energy Cable: 4 Charts that Should Keep Largarde up at Night

United Kingdom

The Baltic Dry Index (replaces the Baltic Freight Index): A composite of the Baltic Capesize, Panamax, Handysize and Supramax indices. The index is designed as the successor to the Baltic Freight Index and was first published on January 4 1985 at 1000 points.Last day of trading yr - Christmas Eve

Baltic Dry Index (BDIY INDEX)

Great Game – The 3 Biggest Geopolitical Risks for Markets Right Now

We give you our take on the hottest geopolitical topics of relevance to your portfolio. This week, we cover the 3 biggest geopolitical risks for...

Steno Research

Dry Bulk Freight Derivatives Chartbook (Jan-April 2026)

Middle-East conflict reshaped Dry Bulk futures with Capesize surging ahead of Panamax as higher fuel costs, supply constraints, and conflict-driven...

Mint Finance

Suez and EIA Watch – Demand / Supply Getting Out of Balance?

Takeaway: Energy freight rates still not reacting to troubles in the Red Sea, with this week seeing another increase in container freight rate.

Steno Research

EM by EM #39: All Roads Out of China Lead to Goods Disinflation

Takeaway: China serves as the primary deflationary force in the global macroeconomic landscape. Despite China’s slowing growth, policy responses...

Steno Research

Energy Cable: 4 Charts that Should Keep Largarde up at Night

Takeaways: Price increases in goods likely to show up in Europe after the Summer. Watch out for energy prices once we start to fill up for next...

Steno Research