European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>BBVA secures 20%+ acceptance with one day left; gross spread at close is +2.9%. Market focus now on final institutional flows and threshold risk into 10 Oct deadline.</li>
<li>Most hedge funds expected to tender to avoid being caught in a non-event or downside skew if BBVA walks; second OPA would be all-cash but at the same price.</li>
<li>Long SAB / short BBVA remains tactically attractive, with asymmetry reduced but not gone. Borrow demand light but may rise as index tracking and hedge unwinds converge into result publication.</li>
</ul>


BBVA secures 20%+ acceptance with one day left; gross spread at close is +2.9%. Market focus now on final institutional flows and threshold risk into 10 Oct deadline.
Most hedge funds expected to tender to avoid being caught in a non-event or downside skew if BBVA walks; second OPA would be all-cash but at the same price.
Long SAB / short BBVA remains tactically attractive, with asymmetry reduced but not gone. Borrow demand light but may rise as index tracking and hedge unwinds converge into result publication.


BBVA-Sabadell: Final Stretch — Risk/Reward Tilting Sharply

<ul>
<li>BBVA’s revised all-share offer removes the discount but offers minimal premium, testing institutional appetite amid weak synergies and a fixed acceptance window ending 7 October.</li>
<li>The absence of cash and refusal to raise terms again leave limited upside optionality, making the risk/reward still favorable for a tactical long SAB / short BBVA trade.</li>
<li>Key focus now shifts to institutional sentiment, final acceptance levels, and governance risks, as tax neutrality alone may not be enough to ensure majority support.</li>
</ul>


BBVA’s revised all-share offer removes the discount but offers minimal premium, testing institutional appetite amid weak synergies and a fixed acceptance window ending 7 October.
The absence of cash and refusal to raise terms again leave limited upside optionality, making the risk/reward still favorable for a tactical long SAB / short BBVA trade.
Key focus now shifts to institutional sentiment, final acceptance levels, and governance risks, as tax neutrality alone may not be enough to ensure majority support.


BBVA-Sabadell: All-Stock, All-In — But Not a Done Deal

<ul>
<li>BBVA’s bid goes live on 8 Sept, but a –8.71% spread and poor optics keep tactical long SAB / short BBVA trades attractive.</li>
<li>Sabadell continues to boost standalone appeal via dividends, TSB sale, and strategic capital returns, reducing shareholder incentive to tender at current terms.</li>
<li>Legal overhang and merger restrictions extend into 2028, capping synergies and reinforcing the asymmetry in event-driven positioning ahead of potential bid adjustments.</li>
</ul>


BBVA’s bid goes live on 8 Sept, but a –8.71% spread and poor optics keep tactical long SAB / short BBVA trades attractive.
Sabadell continues to boost standalone appeal via dividends, TSB sale, and strategic capital returns, reducing shareholder incentive to tender at current terms.
Legal overhang and merger restrictions extend into 2028, capping synergies and reinforcing the asymmetry in event-driven positioning ahead of potential bid adjustments.


BBVA-Sabadell: Deal Launches Underwater, Arbitrage Still Asymmetric

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schibsted-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22250:1" rel="noopener">Schibsted/Vend Marketplaces (VENDB NO)</a> is the highest ranked non-constituent. However, its addition is uncertain due to share class liquidity.</li>
<li>The main forecasted additions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zegona-communications-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25686:1" rel="noopener">Zegona Communications (ZEG LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nordex-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21682:1" rel="noopener">Nordex SE (NDX1 GR)</a> following price rallies.</li>
<li>The main forecasted deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/verallia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36586:1" rel="noopener">Verallia (VRLA FP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banca-popolare-di-sondrio-scar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21166:1" rel="noopener">Banca Popolare Di Sondrio Scar (BPSO IM)</a> following tender offers that significantly reduced their free float.</li>
</ul>



Schibsted/Vend Marketplaces (VENDB NO) is the highest ranked non-constituent. However, its addition is uncertain due to share class liquidity.
The main forecasted additions are Zegona Communications (ZEG LN) and Nordex SE (NDX1 GR) following price rallies.
The main forecasted deletions are Verallia (VRLA FP) and Banca Popolare Di Sondrio Scar (BPSO IM) following tender offers that significantly reduced their free float.


STOXX Europe600 Sep25 Forecast: ZEG, NDX1, FRA to Enter; VRLA, BPSO, EMBRACB to Exit

<ul>
<li>BBVA’s bid for Sabadell remains underwater, with a –6.8% spread despite a 29% BBVA's rally. The latest exchange ratio worsens optics; a cash bump may be needed to secure acceptance.</li>
<li>Legal and regulatory overhang persists, with BBVA appealing Spain's three-year integration block. The outcome may reshape synergy capture but remains slow-moving, leaving short-term deal value limited and execution uncertain.</li>
<li>Tactical opportunity remains in long SAB / short BBVA, with September’s acceptance window approaching. Unless terms improve, rejection risk is high; fundamentals and shareholder sentiment increasingly favour Sabadell’s standalone path.</li>
</ul>


BBVA’s bid for Sabadell remains underwater, with a –6.8% spread despite a 29% BBVA's rally. The latest exchange ratio worsens optics; a cash bump may be needed to secure acceptance.
Legal and regulatory overhang persists, with BBVA appealing Spain's three-year integration block. The outcome may reshape synergy capture but remains slow-moving, leaving short-term deal value limited and execution uncertain.
Tactical opportunity remains in long SAB / short BBVA, with September’s acceptance window approaching. Unless terms improve, rejection risk is high; fundamentals and shareholder sentiment increasingly favour Sabadell’s standalone path.


BBVA-Sabadell: Spread Too Thin, Sabadell Terms Weaken Again

Spain

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. attracts deposits and offers retail, wholesale, and investment banking services.  The Bank offers consumer and mortgage loans, private banking, asset management, insurance, mutual funds, and securities brokerage services.  It operates in Europe, Latin America, United States, China and Turkey.

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Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM)

BBVA-Sabadell: Final Stretch — Risk/Reward Tilting Sharply

BBVA’s all-stock offer for Sabadell nears expiry with rising momentum but weak structure. Final acceptances hold the key. Tactical long SAB / short...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BBVA-Sabadell: All-Stock, All-In — But Not a Done Deal

BBVA’s improved all-stock offer ends the discount but leaves minimal premium. With no bump coming, sentiment and threshold risk dominate. Tactical...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BBVA-Sabadell: Deal Launches Underwater, Arbitrage Still Asymmetric

BBVA’s bid is live but unattractive. With Sabadell gaining strength and the spread still wide, tactical long SAB / short BBVA positioning offers...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX Europe600 Sep25 Forecast: ZEG, NDX1, FRA to Enter; VRLA, BPSO, EMBRACB to Exit

Uncertain inclusion: VENDB due to share class liquidity. High probability inclusions: ZEG and NDX1 following price rallies. High probability...

Dimitris Ioannidis

BBVA-Sabadell: Spread Too Thin, Sabadell Terms Weaken Again

BBVA’s bid for Sabadell remains unattractive post-adjustment. Legal risk, negative spread, and rising SAB value tilt risk-reward toward rejection....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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