European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Sabadell is exploring a sale of TSB amid BBVA’s hostile bid, with offers in the €2.0–2.35B range.</li>
<li>A sale at those levels would imply a small capital loss, not a gain, in my view.</li>
<li>Strategic value remains: a divestment could disrupt BBVA’s plans, raise cash, or fund returns.</li>
</ul>


Sabadell is exploring a sale of TSB amid BBVA’s hostile bid, with offers in the €2.0–2.35B range.
A sale at those levels would imply a small capital loss, not a gain, in my view.
Strategic value remains: a divestment could disrupt BBVA’s plans, raise cash, or fund returns.


TSB: Divestment as a Defensive Lever in Sabadell’s BBVA Saga

<ul>
<li>The BBVA-Sabadell takeover deal has been elevated to the Council of Ministers for review, making political risk central despite both EU and CNMC's (antitrust) clearance.</li>
<li>Spanish government’s minority status makes it vulnerable to Catalan pressure opposing the deal.</li>
<li>Gross spread of -6.2% signals market skepticism or expectation of a sweetened offer.</li>
</ul>


The BBVA-Sabadell takeover deal has been elevated to the Council of Ministers for review, making political risk central despite both EU and CNMC's (antitrust) clearance.
Spanish government’s minority status makes it vulnerable to Catalan pressure opposing the deal.
Gross spread of -6.2% signals market skepticism or expectation of a sweetened offer.


Cabinet Clause: Political Hurdles in BBVA’s Takeover of Sabadell

<ul>
<li>BBVA’s hostile bid for Sabadell has cleared regulatory hurdles but faces political resistance (public consultation ending today 16 May), with final Government review pending by June 26.</li>
<li>A potential Sabadell–Abanca merger appears unlikely; Escotet would be the top shareholder (~33–36%) in such a deal, but Abanca has publicly denied interest.</li>
<li>The offer trades at a negative gross spread, suggesting market doubts or expectations of a sweetened bid — supporting a long SAB / short BBVA pair trade setup.</li>
</ul>


BBVA’s hostile bid for Sabadell has cleared regulatory hurdles but faces political resistance (public consultation ending today 16 May), with final Government review pending by June 26.
A potential Sabadell–Abanca merger appears unlikely; Escotet would be the top shareholder (~33–36%) in such a deal, but Abanca has publicly denied interest.
The offer trades at a negative gross spread, suggesting market doubts or expectations of a sweetened bid — supporting a long SAB / short BBVA pair trade setup.


Under Review: Banking on Politics in BBVA’s Bid for Sabadell

<ul>
<li>CNMC approved BBVA’s bid with mild SME lending and branch access commitments. The offer now enters Phase 3, with government review and CNMV filing expected by late Q2 2025.</li>
<li>Sabadell shares trade 6.7% above the offer value, suggesting market expectation of an improved bid or deal failure. The <strong>gross spread is negative despite regulatory momentum</strong>.</li>
<li>BBVA’s CET1 would drop to 11.99% under current terms. It can raise the cash offer by €0.12–0.17/share and still stay above 11.5%, allowing room to improve the deal.</li>
</ul>


CNMC approved BBVA’s bid with mild SME lending and branch access commitments. The offer now enters Phase 3, with government review and CNMV filing expected by late Q2 2025.
Sabadell shares trade 6.7% above the offer value, suggesting market expectation of an improved bid or deal failure. The gross spread is negative despite regulatory momentum.
BBVA’s CET1 would drop to 11.99% under current terms. It can raise the cash offer by €0.12–0.17/share and still stay above 11.5%, allowing room to improve the deal.


BBVA’s Hostile Offer for Sabadell Moves into Final Phase: The Catalan Conundrum

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glencore-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:764:1" rel="noopener">Glencore Plc (GLEN LN)</a> currently ranks 77 in STOXX Europe50. If it ranks 75 or worse on 30 April, the security will be deleted via Fast-Exit on 7 May.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rolls-royce-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22121:1" rel="noopener">Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR/ LN)</a> is forecasted to be the replacement to the Fast-Exit deletion.</li>
<li>Main forecasted addition and deletion candidates at the September 2025 annual review include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bilbao-vizcaya-argentari" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21251:1" rel="noopener">Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA SM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercedes-benz-group-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21602:1" rel="noopener">Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GR)</a>, respectively. </li>
</ul>



Glencore Plc (GLEN LN) currently ranks 77 in STOXX Europe50. If it ranks 75 or worse on 30 April, the security will be deleted via Fast-Exit on 7 May.

Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR/ LN) is forecasted to be the replacement to the Fast-Exit deletion.
Main forecasted addition and deletion candidates at the September 2025 annual review include Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA SM) and Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GR), respectively. 


Glencore (GLEN): Fast-Exit from STOXX Europe50 In May 2025

Spain

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. attracts deposits and offers retail, wholesale, and investment banking services.  The Bank offers consumer and mortgage loans, private banking, asset management, insurance, mutual funds, and securities brokerage services.  It operates in Europe, Latin America, United States, China and Turkey.

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Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM)

TSB: Divestment as a Defensive Lever in Sabadell’s BBVA Saga

Sabadell may sell TSB to defend against BBVA’s bid. Though not value-accretive, the move raises cash, weakens BBVA’s strategy, and boosts...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Cabinet Clause: Political Hurdles in BBVA’s Takeover of Sabadell

BBVA’s bid for Sabadell faces a political wildcard as Spain’s minority government, reliant on Catalan votes, reviews the deal—injecting headline...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Under Review: Banking on Politics in BBVA’s Bid for Sabadell

BBVA’s hostile bid for Sabadell nears final approval amid political tension. Market doubts create a negative spread, offering a tactical long SAB /...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BBVA’s Hostile Offer for Sabadell Moves into Final Phase: The Catalan Conundrum

BBVA's offer for Sabadell enters its final regulatory phase. With Sabadell shares trading above the bid, the market anticipates a sweeter offer or...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Glencore (GLEN): Fast-Exit from STOXX Europe50 In May 2025

Glencore (GLEN) is ranked ~79 as of 29 April. With only one day to go, the stock price needs to surge ~8% to avoid fast-exit. As a result, the...

Dimitris Ioannidis

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