Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics remain largely bearish/unchanged, and we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports on SPX, IWM,QQQ are likely to result in a test of the 2022 lows.</li>
<li>The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is already testing its 2022 lows, but the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM) are still 6-9% above their 2022 lows.</li>
<li>Depending on how the market responds to its 2022 lows, that could be a better area to increase risk.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics remain largely bearish/unchanged, and we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports on SPX, IWM,QQQ are likely to result in a test of the 2022 lows.
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is already testing its 2022 lows, but the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM) are still 6-9% above their 2022 lows.
Depending on how the market responds to its 2022 lows, that could be a better area to increase risk.


More Downside to Lead to Buying Opportunity?; Buy Ideas in Consumer Staples, EU Banks, Gold Miners

iShares MSCI EAFE ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe that a bearish intermediate-term outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).</li>
<li>We would turn bullish only on reversals of those downtrends. With that said, a bear market rally has officially begun, something that we have discussed since our Sept.29 Int'l Compass</li>
<li>We expect to see rallies to their respective YTD downtrends (ACWX, EFA, etc.). We highlight buys that are likely to outperform on this bear market rally.</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe that a bearish intermediate-term outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
We would turn bullish only on reversals of those downtrends. With that said, a bear market rally has officially begun, something that we have discussed since our Sept.29 Int'l Compass
We expect to see rallies to their respective YTD downtrends (ACWX, EFA, etc.). We highlight buys that are likely to outperform on this bear market rally.


Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Yr Yields Fall; Buy Ideas Within Leaders

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Bank sector trends to August continue to be robust, but potential challenges lie ahead for returns; tightening credit spreads and a potential worsening of credit quality</li>
<li>Credit spreads are being crimped by fast rising funding costs, and there is emerging evidence of worsening consumer credit quality through consumer cost of risk and delinquency</li>
<li>BBVA Mexico generates the highest ROE versus its peers due to strong revenue returns, Banorte has the lowest NPL ratio and BanBajio has high capital ratios and returns</li>
</ul>


Bank sector trends to August continue to be robust, but potential challenges lie ahead for returns; tightening credit spreads and a potential worsening of credit quality
Credit spreads are being crimped by fast rising funding costs, and there is emerging evidence of worsening consumer credit quality through consumer cost of risk and delinquency
BBVA Mexico generates the highest ROE versus its peers due to strong revenue returns, Banorte has the lowest NPL ratio and BanBajio has high capital ratios and returns


Mexican Banks’ August Data and Trends – as Good as It Gets?

<ul>
<li>Indexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward.</li>
<li>Attractive Sectors include Energy and Financials, (and to a lesser extent Staples and Utilities) and these areas remain our primary focus.</li>
<li>Financials (XLF) and Energy (XLE) are hitting new RS highs amid rising rates and new highs in WTI crude oil -- Remain overweight/add exposure on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


Indexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward.
Attractive Sectors include Energy and Financials, (and to a lesser extent Staples and Utilities) and these areas remain our primary focus.
Financials (XLF) and Energy (XLE) are hitting new RS highs amid rising rates and new highs in WTI crude oil -- Remain overweight/add exposure on pullbacks.


<ul>
<li>BBVA Bancomer delivered the best return on equity (ROE) of the biggest nine Mexican banks to October, at 20%+ and “works” its healthy core capital ratio harder than their peers</li>
<li>The bank system trends remain healthy, with well controlled NPL ratios and healthy coverage; Banorte and BanBajio continue to screen better than peers on combined credit quality metrics to October</li>
<li>We remain cautious on Banorte, due largely to valuation and increasing competition; we like mid-cap bank BanBajio for its good value, and are positive on BBVA for its Mexican exposure</li>
</ul>


BBVA Bancomer delivered the best return on equity (ROE) of the biggest nine Mexican banks to October, at 20%+ and “works” its healthy core capital ratio harder than their peers
The bank system trends remain healthy, with well controlled NPL ratios and healthy coverage; Banorte and BanBajio continue to screen better than peers on combined credit quality metrics to October
We remain cautious on Banorte, due largely to valuation and increasing competition; we like mid-cap bank BanBajio for its good value, and are positive on BBVA for its Mexican exposure


Mexican Banks’ October Data Looks Benign on Credit Quality, Watch for Spread Erosion Going Forward

Spain

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. attracts deposits and offers retail, wholesale, and investment banking services.  The Bank offers consumer and mortgage loans, private banking, asset management, insurance, mutual funds, and securities brokerage services.  It operates in Europe, Latin America, United States, China and Turkey.

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Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM)

More Downside to Lead to Buying Opportunity?; Buy Ideas in Consumer Staples, EU Banks, Gold Miners

With market dynamics still bearish, we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports (3910 on SPX, $177.50 on IWM, and $279 on QQQ) are likely...

Vermilion Research

Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Yr Yields Fall; Buy Ideas Within Leaders

Bear Market Rally in Progress as $DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Year Yields Decline. Italy FTSE MIB with a bullish YTD downtrend reversal, Switzerland...

Vermilion Research

Mexican Banks’ August Data and Trends – as Good as It Gets?

Bank sector trends to August continue to be robust, but potential challenges lie ahead; tightening credit spreads and a potential NPL worsening; we...

Victor Galliano

Stick With Energy and Financials

Indexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward. Attractive Sectors include Energy and...

Vermilion Research

Mexican Banks’ October Data Looks Benign on Credit Quality, Watch for Spread Erosion Going Forward

Bank system trends are healthy; we like mid-cap bank BanBajio for its good value, & are positive on BBVA for its Mexican exposure, yet we are...

Victor Galliano

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