Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Relatively newly formed, increased free float, dominant Shariah market share</li>
<li>All 9 peer Shariah banks combined have less branches than BRIS</li>
<li>57% market share of Shariah lending, where growth is highest</li>
</ul>


Relatively newly formed, increased free float, dominant Shariah market share
All 9 peer Shariah banks combined have less branches than BRIS
57% market share of Shariah lending, where growth is highest


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Manufacturing-led FDI now anchors investment growth, lifting GFCF and widening regional benefit with Ex-Java areas benefiting the most.</li><li>Despite rising manufacturing-led FDI, investment momentum is soft. Capex cycle, utilisation, and minimum wages are key factors to watch.</li><li>Wage growth tracks investment in productive regions, highlighting the need to shift UMR rules toward productivity-based, region-specific.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Manufacturing-led FDI now anchors investment growth, lifting GFCF and widening regional benefit with Ex-Java areas benefiting the most.Despite rising manufacturing-led FDI, investment momentum is soft. Capex cycle, utilisation, and minimum wages are key factors to watch.Wage growth tracks investment in productive regions, highlighting the need to shift UMR rules toward productivity-based, region-specific.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy: 2026: Reassessing the Investment Cycle

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Indonesia’s growth is driven by steady consumption and increasingly important investment, both forming dual engine for growth expansion.</li><li>We assess three factors: growth drivers, dilemma &amp; policy implication, and conclude different phase of economy require different approaches.</li><li>Consumption drives quick gains, while investment sustains growth, requiring balanced near- and long-term policy support.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indonesia’s growth is driven by steady consumption and increasingly important investment, both forming dual engine for growth expansion.We assess three factors: growth drivers, dilemma &amp; policy implication, and conclude different phase of economy require different approaches.Consumption drives quick gains, while investment sustains growth, requiring balanced near- and long-term policy support.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Investment loans continue to be the backbone of growth and asset quality, while deteriorating consumer asset quality persisted in 1H25.</li><li>We observed worsening asset quality across all types of consumer loans, with middle-income mortgage facing the biggest deterioration.</li><li>We maintain Neutral view on the banking sector amid the valuation derating due to asset quality risk and lack of ST catalyst.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Investment loans continue to be the backbone of growth and asset quality, while deteriorating consumer asset quality persisted in 1H25.We observed worsening asset quality across all types of consumer loans, with middle-income mortgage facing the biggest deterioration.We maintain Neutral view on the banking sector amid the valuation derating due to asset quality risk and lack of ST catalyst.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>We estimate minimal impact on CoF (1-3bps) and earnings (0.4-1.5%) on SOE banks after raising their USD TD rates to 4%.</li><li>We see downside risks from deposit dollarization and weaker Rupiah, although the plan could also benefit domestic liquidity and economy.</li><li>Amid the bottoming liquidity, we retain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our LT stock pick as we remain cautious on asset quality.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We estimate minimal impact on CoF (1-3bps) and earnings (0.4-1.5%) on SOE banks after raising their USD TD rates to 4%.We see downside risks from deposit dollarization and weaker Rupiah, although the plan could also benefit domestic liquidity and economy.Amid the bottoming liquidity, we retain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our LT stock pick as we remain cautious on asset quality.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indonesia

PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk is a state-owned bank that conducts commercial and consumer banking services.

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Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)

BRIS - Dominant

BRIS is relatively newly formed, with an incredibly dominant Shariah lending market share, where growth is high and can continue with strong asset...

Daniel Tabbush

Macro Strategy: 2026: Reassessing the Investment Cycle

Manufacturing-led FDI now anchors investment growth, lifting GFCF and widening regional benefit with Ex-Java areas benefiting the most.

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy: 2026: The Dual Levers

Indonesia’s growth is driven by steady consumption and increasingly important investment, both forming dual engine for growth expansion.

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: Middle Income Trapped (NEUTRAL)

Investment loans continue to be the backbone of growth and asset quality, while deteriorating consumer asset quality persisted in 1H25.

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: USD Deposits and IDR Liquidity...

Amid the bottoming liquidity, we retain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our LT stock pick as we remain cautious on asset quality.

BRI Danareksa Research

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