External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We forecast a modest net profit growth of 1.8% yoy in FY26F on lower NIM, driven by softer EA yield amid lower rate and tight competition.</li><li>We expect a slight increase in CoC of 1.1% in FY26F driven by higher portion of riskier segments and cautious stance in micro and consumer.</li><li>We roll forward our valuation to FY26F with an ROE of 11.8% and CoE of 11.9%, resulting in a lower TP of Rp4,700, i.e., maintain BUY rating.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We forecast a modest net profit growth of 1.8% yoy in FY26F on lower NIM, driven by softer EA yield amid lower rate and tight competition.We expect a slight increase in CoC of 1.1% in FY26F driven by higher portion of riskier segments and cautious stance in micro and consumer.We roll forward our valuation to FY26F with an ROE of 11.8% and CoE of 11.9%, resulting in a lower TP of Rp4,700, i.e., maintain BUY rating.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI.IJ) Cautious View on NIM Despite Cost of Fund Improvements

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>We downgrade <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara</a> , our former top pick in Indonesian banks, to a neutral from a buy due to the more concerning credit quality outlook, despite its undemanding valuations</li>
<li>The sacking of the technocratic finance minister increased investor concerns, and the economy’s lacklustre GDP growth – reflected in the surprise rate cut - adds to the banks’ NPL headwinds</li>
<li>Negara’s headline NPL ratio and NPL coverage seem to be reasonable, but these metrics mask more concerning broader credit quality ratios, coupled with the challenge of its low interest margins</li>
</ul>


We downgrade Bank Negara , our former top pick in Indonesian banks, to a neutral from a buy due to the more concerning credit quality outlook, despite its undemanding valuations
The sacking of the technocratic finance minister increased investor concerns, and the economy’s lacklustre GDP growth – reflected in the surprise rate cut - adds to the banks’ NPL headwinds
Negara’s headline NPL ratio and NPL coverage seem to be reasonable, but these metrics mask more concerning broader credit quality ratios, coupled with the challenge of its low interest margins


Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) – Downgrading to Neutral Due to Worsening Bad Loan and Interest Margin Outlook

<ul>
<li>Negara is our top pick in the Indonesian banks, based on our proprietary scorecard; it scores well based on attractive valuations, sound credit quality metrics and potential for improved returns</li>
<li>The PB value in Negara is especially apparent relative to Permata; Negara trades at a 50%+ PBV ratio discount to Permata, which we believe is not warranted by the fundamentals</li>
<li>We downgrade Mandiri from a buy to a neutral rating; it is no longer, in our view, compelling based on PBV ratio and now looks expensive in PEG ratio terms</li>
</ul>


Negara is our top pick in the Indonesian banks, based on our proprietary scorecard; it scores well based on attractive valuations, sound credit quality metrics and potential for improved returns
The PB value in Negara is especially apparent relative to Permata; Negara trades at a 50%+ PBV ratio discount to Permata, which we believe is not warranted by the fundamentals
We downgrade Mandiri from a buy to a neutral rating; it is no longer, in our view, compelling based on PBV ratio and now looks expensive in PEG ratio terms


Indonesian Banks; We Stick with Our Key Pick Bank Negara (BBNI IJ)

Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

Artoval Advisors

Art’o’val stands for Art of Valuation. Artoval Advisors LLP is a professionally run advisory firm catering to various financial advisory services including Valuation, Investment Research, Training, Accounting, CFO Services and other ancillary services.

We are passionate about what we do and strongly believe in working with our clients as their extended teams. With Artoval Advisors as their trusted partner, our clients find it easy to achieve efficiency in service delivery without compromising on quality.

True Art of Valuation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a> has stated its target of achieving an FY28e ROE of 20%, with ambition to join the other three big Indonesian Banks already doing it. </li>
<li>Although the current results are not on par with the other three, the bank has outlined its strategy to reach the target (1% credit cost; 37% CIR by 2028 exit)</li>
<li>Projecting a gradual re-rating to align with peers by 2028 and extrapolating book value growth over the 5-year period provides a shareholder return of 30% CAGR</li>
</ul>



Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ) has stated its target of achieving an FY28e ROE of 20%, with ambition to join the other three big Indonesian Banks already doing it. 
Although the current results are not on par with the other three, the bank has outlined its strategy to reach the target (1% credit cost; 37% CIR by 2028 exit)
Projecting a gradual re-rating to align with peers by 2028 and extrapolating book value growth over the 5-year period provides a shareholder return of 30% CAGR


BBNI IJ Initiation: On a Rewarding Journey to 20% ROE

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>BBNI booked a net profit of IDR5.4tn in 1Q25 (+1% YoY, +4% QoQ), in line with ours and consensus estimate at 24%.</li><li>This modest growth came amid a flat PPOP of IDR8.1tn, weighed down by higher opex and lower NII on a quarterly basis.</li><li>NII reached IDR10.2tn (+5% YoY, -11% QoQ), supported by steady loan expansion but offset by tighter margins and funding pressures. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BBNI booked a net profit of IDR5.4tn in 1Q25 (+1% YoY, +4% QoQ), in line with ours and consensus estimate at 24%.This modest growth came amid a flat PPOP of IDR8.1tn, weighed down by higher opex and lower NII on a quarterly basis.NII reached IDR10.2tn (+5% YoY, -11% QoQ), supported by steady loan expansion but offset by tighter margins and funding pressures. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BBNI IJ - BBNI 1Q25 Earnings In Line, but Cautious Outlook for Domestic Economic Conditions

Indonesia

PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk is a state-owned bank that conducts commercial and consumer banking services.

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Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI.IJ) Cautious View on NIM Despite Cost of Fund Improvements

We forecast a modest net profit growth of 1.8% yoy in FY26F on lower NIM, driven by softer EA yield amid lower rate and tight competition.

BRI Danareksa Research

Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) – Downgrading to Neutral Due to Worsening Bad Loan and Interest Margin Outlook

We downgrade Bank Negara to a neutral from buy due to the poor macro-economic outlook; it is vulnerable to the worsening credit quality outlook...

Victor Galliano

Indonesian Banks; We Stick with Our Key Pick Bank Negara (BBNI IJ)

We rank Indonesian banks based on our proprietary scorecard; Negara is top due to good value, credit quality, return potential and at a deep PBV...

Victor Galliano

BBNI IJ Initiation: On a Rewarding Journey to 20% ROE

BBNI IJ has stated its target of achieving an FY28e ROE of 20%, just like peers do now. Being involved in the journey can be very rewarding for...

Raj S, CA, CFA

BBNI IJ - BBNI 1Q25 Earnings In Line, but Cautious Outlook for Domestic Economic Conditions

Provisioning remained disciplined, with CoC dropping to 0.8% (- 20bps YoY), supporting stable earnings and aligning with FY25E guidance of ±1.0%.

MNC Sekuritas

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Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI.IJ) Cautious View on NIM Despite Cost of Fund Improvements

We forecast a modest net profit growth of 1.8% yoy in FY26F on lower NIM, driven by softer EA yield amid lower rate and tight competition.

BRI Danareksa Research

Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) – Downgrading to Neutral Due to Worsening Bad Loan and Interest Margin Outlook

We downgrade ​Bank Negara to a neutral from buy due to the poor macro-economic outlook; it is vulnerable to the worsening credit quality outlook...

Victor Galliano

Indonesian Banks; We Stick with Our Key Pick Bank Negara (BBNI IJ)

We rank Indonesian banks based on our proprietary scorecard; ​Negara is top due to good value, credit quality, return potential and at a deep PBV...

Victor Galliano

BBNI IJ Initiation: On a Rewarding Journey to 20% ROE

BBNI IJ has stated its target of achieving an FY28e ROE of 20%, just like peers do now. Being involved in the journey can be very rewarding for...

Raj S, CA, CFA

BBNI IJ - BBNI 1Q25 Earnings In Line, but Cautious Outlook for Domestic Economic Conditions

Provisioning remained disciplined, with CoC dropping to 0.8% (- 20bps YoY), supporting stable earnings and aligning with FY25E guidance of ±1.0%.

MNC Sekuritas

We downgrade Bank Negara to a neutral from buy due to the poor macro-economic outlook; it is vulnerable to the worsening credit quality outlook...

We rank Indonesian banks based on our proprietary scorecard; Negara is top due to good value, credit quality, return potential and at a deep PBV...