Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Negara’s attractive valuations, its low PEG ratio and efficiency ratio should drive the share re-rating; pre- and post-provision were flat QoQ, but profitability ratios edged higher over the medium term</li>
<li>We like Mandiri for its attractive PE multiples and its robust credit quality, despite the 4Q24 returns blip; Mandiri has the second-best efficiency ratio and with further scope for gains</li>
<li>Rakyat’s high structural cost of risk remains a drag on its post-provision returns, with eroded further in 4Q24; although declining, returns are high but Rakyat valuations are not yet compelling</li>
</ul>


Negara’s attractive valuations, its low PEG ratio and efficiency ratio should drive the share re-rating; pre- and post-provision were flat QoQ, but profitability ratios edged higher over the medium term
We like Mandiri for its attractive PE multiples and its robust credit quality, despite the 4Q24 returns blip; Mandiri has the second-best efficiency ratio and with further scope for gains
Rakyat’s high structural cost of risk remains a drag on its post-provision returns, with eroded further in 4Q24; although declining, returns are high but Rakyat valuations are not yet compelling


Indonesian Banks Screener; Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) Stands Out

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>BBNI booked IDR21.5tn of net profit in FY24 (+2.7% YoY/ -8.2% QoQ), which was slightly below consensus target but in line with MNCS estimates.</li><li>Net interest income fell by -1.9% YoY to IDR40tn in FY24. Non-interest income increased by +11.9% YoY to IDR24tn in FY24.</li><li>Opex increased by +7% YoY to IDR29.7tn and CIR was up by +170bps to 44.6%. Provision stood at IDR8.2tn (-10.7% YoY). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BBNI booked IDR21.5tn of net profit in FY24 (+2.7% YoY/ -8.2% QoQ), which was slightly below consensus target but in line with MNCS estimates.Net interest income fell by -1.9% YoY to IDR40tn in FY24. Non-interest income increased by +11.9% YoY to IDR24tn in FY24.Opex increased by +7% YoY to IDR29.7tn and CIR was up by +170bps to 44.6%. Provision stood at IDR8.2tn (-10.7% YoY). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BBNI IJ - Modest 2025 Outlook Amid Liquidity Challenges

<ul><li>Flat performance amidst gradual improvement BBNI booked IDR21.5tn of net profit in FY24 (+2.7% YoY/ -8.2% QoQ), which was slightly below consensus target but in line with MNCS estimates.</li><li>Net interest income fell by -1.9% YoY to IDR40tn in FY24. Non-interest income increased by +11.9% YoY to IDR24tn in FY24.</li><li>Opex increased by +7% YoY to IDR29.7tn and CIR was up by +170bps to 44.6%. Provision stood at IDR8.2tn (-10.7% YoY). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Flat performance amidst gradual improvement BBNI booked IDR21.5tn of net profit in FY24 (+2.7% YoY/ -8.2% QoQ), which was slightly below consensus target but in line with MNCS estimates.Net interest income fell by -1.9% YoY to IDR40tn in FY24. Non-interest income increased by +11.9% YoY to IDR24tn in FY24.Opex increased by +7% YoY to IDR29.7tn and CIR was up by +170bps to 44.6%. Provision stood at IDR8.2tn (-10.7% YoY). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI IJ) - Modest 2025 Outlook Amid Liquidity Challenges

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia</a> came good in 4Q2024 with a strong finish to the year due to higher loan growth from corporates and consumers, alongside higher CASA growth cementing higher NIMs</li>
<li>The bank also saw improving asset quality, with falling loans-at-risk, and although there was an uptick in provisions in 4Q due to Sritex, the outlook for credit costs looks stable.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia</a> will grow its focus on becoming a transactional bank, with CASA as a key focus, providing liquidity to grow its loan book. Valuations remain attractive. </li>
</ul>



Bank Negara Indonesia came good in 4Q2024 with a strong finish to the year due to higher loan growth from corporates and consumers, alongside higher CASA growth cementing higher NIMs
The bank also saw improving asset quality, with falling loans-at-risk, and although there was an uptick in provisions in 4Q due to Sritex, the outlook for credit costs looks stable.

Bank Negara Indonesia will grow its focus on becoming a transactional bank, with CASA as a key focus, providing liquidity to grow its loan book. Valuations remain attractive. 


Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) - Honing in on Transactions and CASA

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>BBNI booked NP of Rp21.5tr (+3% yoy), in line with our estimate, with lower qoq 4Q24 NP driven by higher CoC and CIR, offsetting higher NIM.</li><li>Management expects moderating loan growth of 8-10%, stable NIM of 4.0-4.2%, and improving CoC of 1.0% for FY25F. </li><li>Maintain Buy rating for BBNI with an unchanged TP of Rp5,100 based on -0.5SD 5-year inverse CoE GGM, implying FV PBV of 1.1x.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BBNI booked NP of Rp21.5tr (+3% yoy), in line with our estimate, with lower qoq 4Q24 NP driven by higher CoC and CIR, offsetting higher NIM.Management expects moderating loan growth of 8-10%, stable NIM of 4.0-4.2%, and improving CoC of 1.0% for FY25F. Maintain Buy rating for BBNI with an unchanged TP of Rp5,100 based on -0.5SD 5-year inverse CoE GGM, implying FV PBV of 1.1x.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BBNI IJ - In Line NP Driven by Loan Growth and Lower CoC, Offsetting the Lower NIM and Higher CIR

Indonesia

PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk is a state-owned bank that conducts commercial and consumer banking services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)

Indonesian Banks Screener; Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) Stands Out

Negara's modest valuations, improving returns and efficiency ratio over the medium term to drive share re-rating; Mandiri is attractive on...

Victor Galliano

BBNI IJ - Modest 2025 Outlook Amid Liquidity Challenges

BBNI booked IDR21.5tn of net profit in FY24 (+2.7% YoY/ -8.2% QoQ), which was slightly below consensus target but in line with MNCS estimates.

MNC Sekuritas

PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI IJ) - Modest 2025 Outlook Amid Liquidity Challenges

Flat performance amidst gradual improvement BBNI booked IDR21.5tn of net profit in FY24 (+2.7% YoY/ -8.2% QoQ), which was slightly below consensus...

MNC Sekuritas

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) - Honing in on Transactions and CASA

Bank Negara Indonesia will grow its focus on becoming a transactional bank, with CASA as a key focus, providing liquidity to grow its loan book....

Angus Mackintosh

BBNI IJ - In Line NP Driven by Loan Growth and Lower CoC, Offsetting the Lower NIM and Higher CIR

BBNI booked NP of Rp21.5tr (+3% yoy), in line with our estimate, with lower qoq 4Q24 NP driven by higher CoC and CIR, offsetting higher NIM.

BRI Danareksa Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Indonesian Banks Screener; Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) Stands Out

​Negara's modest valuations, improving returns and efficiency ratio over the medium term to drive share re-rating; Mandiri is attractive on...

Victor Galliano

BBNI IJ - Modest 2025 Outlook Amid Liquidity Challenges

BBNI booked IDR21.5tn of net profit in FY24 (+2.7% YoY/ -8.2% QoQ), which was slightly below consensus target but in line with MNCS estimates.

MNC Sekuritas

PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI IJ) - Modest 2025 Outlook Amid Liquidity Challenges

Flat performance amidst gradual improvement BBNI booked IDR21.5tn of net profit in FY24 (+2.7% YoY/ -8.2% QoQ), which was slightly below consensus...

MNC Sekuritas

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) - Honing in on Transactions and CASA

Bank Negara Indonesia will grow its focus on becoming a transactional bank, with CASA as a key focus, providing liquidity to grow its loan book....

Angus Mackintosh

BBNI IJ - In Line NP Driven by Loan Growth and Lower CoC, Offsetting the Lower NIM and Higher CIR

BBNI booked NP of Rp21.5tr (+3% yoy), in line with our estimate, with lower qoq 4Q24 NP driven by higher CoC and CIR, offsetting higher NIM.

BRI Danareksa Research

Negara's modest valuations, improving returns and efficiency ratio over the medium term to drive share re-rating; Mandiri is attractive on...