Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.</li>
<li>Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.</li>
<li>Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.</li>
</ul>


Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.
Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.
Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.


Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

Xinyi Solar Holdings / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The main drivers for Hong Kong stock rallies are short covering, buybacks, and China government real estate support measures announcements.</li><li>Hang Seng Index and most of its constituents continue to read like bear porn. Without a meaningful reversal/impulse rally, it is hard to call for a reversal.</li><li>I hear and agree the case is so bad that it must be a buy signal. The sentiment is precious, BUT it needs a price action supporting the exhaustion thesis.</li></ul>

The main drivers for Hong Kong stock rallies are short covering, buybacks, and China government real estate support measures announcements.Hang Seng Index and most of its constituents continue to read like bear porn. Without a meaningful reversal/impulse rally, it is hard to call for a reversal.I hear and agree the case is so bad that it must be a buy signal. The sentiment is precious, BUT it needs a price action supporting the exhaustion thesis.

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China’s banks find themselves walking a tightrope amid the deepening economic warfare between Russia and the West.</li>
<li>Chinese institutions are technically able to continue engaging with sanctioned Russian entities under domestic law</li>
<li>Apart from the suspension of some ongoing dollar-denominated transactions, the sanctions have had limited impact on Chinese banks so far</li>
</ul>


China’s banks find themselves walking a tightrope amid the deepening economic warfare between Russia and the West.
Chinese institutions are technically able to continue engaging with sanctioned Russian entities under domestic law
Apart from the suspension of some ongoing dollar-denominated transactions, the sanctions have had limited impact on Chinese banks so far


Sanctions on Russia Sound Alarm for Chinese Banks

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 24 months (and implemented in its current state for &gt;12 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include South Korean auto names, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kia-motors-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:156:1" rel="noopener">Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a> as well as Brazilian state-owned energy giant, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petroleo-brasileiro-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24459:1" rel="noopener">Petroleo Brasileiro Sa (PETR3 BZ)</a>.<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;">rank</td>
<td style="width: 169pt;">Name</td>
<td style="width: 119pt;">Sector</td>
<td style="width: 95pt;">Location</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;">prev.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a></td>
<td>Energy</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a></td>
<td>Information Technology</td>
<td>Taiwan</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a></td>
<td>Information Technology</td>
<td>Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">23</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kia-motors-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:156:1" rel="noopener">Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS)</a></td>
<td>Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td>Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">60</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">5</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a></td>
<td>Financials</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">25</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">6</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:197:1" rel="noopener">PTT PCL (PTT TB)</a></td>
<td>Energy</td>
<td>Thailand</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">7</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a></td>
<td>Information Technology</td>
<td>Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">8</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a></td>
<td>Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td>Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">80</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">9</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a></td>
<td>Communication</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">29</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">10</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petroleo-brasileiro-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24459:1" rel="noopener">Petroleo Brasileiro Sa (PETR3 BZ)</a></td>
<td>Energy</td>
<td>Brazil</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">59</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="text-align: left;">Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.

This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 24 months (and implemented in its current state for &gt;12 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include South Korean auto names, Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS) and Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS) as well as Brazilian state-owned energy giant, Petroleo Brasileiro Sa (PETR3 BZ).









rank
Name
Sector
Location
prev.


1
CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)
Energy
China
1


2
Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)
Information Technology
Taiwan
5


3
SK Hynix (000660 KS)
Information Technology
Korea (South)
23


4
Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS)
Consumer Discretionary
Korea (South)
60


5
Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)
Financials
China
25


6
PTT PCL (PTT TB)
Energy
Thailand
4


7
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)
Information Technology
Korea (South)
9


8
Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)
Consumer Discretionary
Korea (South)
80


9
China Mobile (941 HK)
Communication
China
29


10
Petroleo Brasileiro Sa (PETR3 BZ)
Energy
Brazil
59

Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas

As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

BOC Aviation | BOCAVI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boc-aviation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22689:1" rel="noopener">(2588 HK)</a> 
As a follow-up on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a>'s Smartkarma Original <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-pac-airports-ups-but-mostly-downs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51855" rel="noopener">Asia-Pac Airports: Ups, But Mostly Downs</a>, we take a look at BOCAVI, which, in our view, is a compelling alternative to APAC airport operators and airlines as a post-Covid trade.
BOCAVI is a highly geared play on the resumption of air travel. The stock has gone through periods of significant out/underperformance against the APAC airports and airlines and may continue to give investors high beta in either direction. The geographical exposure is broad, but there is a heavy skew towards short-haul flights, which will see the earliest acceleration in passenger traffic.
Management's countercyclical capex expansion increasingly looks like a shrewd bet. At its core, BOCAVI is in the capital management business. Strong liquidity and BOC's explicit backing have allowed the lessor to grow its purchase-and-leaseback portfolio through the depths of the pandemic. While airlines are still hemorrhaging cash, over 99% of BOCAVI's aircraft remain cash-generating.  
We expect the firm's undiscounted committed revenues to top USD20bn in 2021. By year-end, the value of the portfolio will have doubled since 2014. We estimate the present value of this cashflow stream to be HKD72.80/share. We are essentially getting free growth optionality. 
We are buyers at book value. The stock is trading at 8x P/E and 1.1x P/B on a 12M forward basis. BOCAVI is reasonably liquid, with a market cap of USD6bn and average daily turnover of USD3.5mn. Besides the obvious risk of protracted lockdowns globally, a well-functioning USD bond market and BOC's funding support are critical to our investment case.
Attachment: BOCAVI Financial Summary

BOC Aviation | BOCAVI (2588 HK) 
As a follow-up on David Blennerhassett's Smartkarma Original Asia-Pac Airports: Ups, But Mostly Downs, we take a look at BOCAVI, which, in our view, is a compelling alternative to APAC airport operators and airlines as a post-Covid trade.
BOCAVI is a highly geared play on the resumption of air travel. The stock has gone through periods of significant out/underperformance against the APAC airports and airlines and may continue to give investors high beta in either direction. The geographical exposure is broad, but there is a heavy skew towards short-haul flights, which will see the earliest acceleration in passenger traffic.
Management's countercyclical capex expansion increasingly looks like a shrewd bet. At its core, BOCAVI is in the capital management business. Strong liquidity and BOC's explicit backing have allowed the lessor to grow its purchase-and-leaseback portfolio through the depths of the pandemic. While airlines are still hemorrhaging cash, over 99% of BOCAVI's aircraft remain cash-generating.  
We expect the firm's undiscounted committed revenues to top USD20bn in 2021. By year-end, the value of the portfolio will have doubled since 2014. We estimate the present value of this cashflow stream to be HKD72.80/share. We are essentially getting free growth optionality. 
We are buyers at book value. The stock is trading at 8x P/E and 1.1x P/B on a 12M forward basis. BOCAVI is reasonably liquid, with a market cap of USD6bn and average daily turnover of USD3.5mn. Besides the obvious risk of protracted lockdowns globally, a well-functioning USD bond market and BOC's funding support are critical to our investment case.
Attachment: BOCAVI Financial Summary

BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

China

Bank of China Ltd provides a complete range of banking and other financial services to individual and corporation customers worldwide.  The bank's services include retail banking, Great Wall credit card and debit card services, consumer credit, foreign currency transaction, corporate banking, settlement and clearing,investment banking, and fund management businesses.

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Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)

China Macro: Sector Positioning Update

Sector positioning among active China Funds. Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Energy shows signs of a turnaround, whilst...

Steven Holden

Xinyi Solar, BYD, and Bank of China

The main drivers for Hong Kong stock rallies are short covering, buybacks, and China government real estate support measures announcements.

Untying The Gordian Knot

Sanctions on Russia Sound Alarm for Chinese Banks

China’s banks find themselves walking a tightrope amid the deepening economic warfare between Russia and the West. Chinese institutions are...

Caixin Global

Screening for GEMs: June 2021

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

As downstream players continue to hemorrhage cash, over 99% of BOCAVI’s aircraft are still cash-generating. Valuation is undemanding for a high...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

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