Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There is little in the long-term and current figures of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a> that leaves one assured of strength, stability, earnings power, and rather the opposite.</li>
<li>Sharply expanding LDR is an increase in loans relative to deposits, and it tends to drive rising NIM. Where LDR expands (a lot) but NIM contracts, it is a concern. </li>
<li>The bank appears to have a 2-3x higher base of credit costs/operating profit, with an ROE of 10% now vs 18% some years ago - with much more geopolitical risk. </li>
</ul>


There is little in the long-term and current figures of Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) that leaves one assured of strength, stability, earnings power, and rather the opposite.
Sharply expanding LDR is an increase in loans relative to deposits, and it tends to drive rising NIM. Where LDR expands (a lot) but NIM contracts, it is a concern. 
The bank appears to have a 2-3x higher base of credit costs/operating profit, with an ROE of 10% now vs 18% some years ago - with much more geopolitical risk. 


Bank of China - Surging LDR, Falling NIM, ROE, with Higher Base of Credit Costs/Operating Income

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Brand-Spanking New (9 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>We used to do it. We brought it back better, with lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 50 Trade Recommendations.</li>
<li>The last 9 weeks (since the start of the new Trcker and Portfolio 8 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%, +0.12%, -0.29%, -0.71%.</li>
</ul>


The Brand-Spanking New (9 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning in pairs over time, etc.
We used to do it. We brought it back better, with lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 50 Trade Recommendations.
The last 9 weeks (since the start of the new Trcker and Portfolio 8 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%, +0.12%, -0.29%, -0.71%.


Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker (To Oct13): Volatility Up Bigly, Wide Spreads Wider

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>An ad hoc <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> rebalance will be implemented at the close on 17 October with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a>. </li>
<li>The rebalances of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdomtree-emerging-markets-146edc02-f8a5-4ac5-968b-5f0f7c89e476" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32683:1" rel="noopener">Wisdomtree Emerging Markets (DEM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdomtree-em-small-cap" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32679:1" rel="noopener">Wisdomtree Em Small Cap (DGS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdmtree-emerg-mkt-ex-st-ow" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32798:1" rel="noopener">Wisdmtree Emerg Mkt Ex-St Ow (XSOE US)</a> will be implemented on 18 October.</li>
<li>There were net outflows from onshore China ETFs with inflows to larger cap ETFs and outflows mainly from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index</a> and CSI 1000 Index trackers.</li>
</ul>


An ad hoc S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) rebalance will be implemented at the close on 17 October with Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) replacing United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU). 
The rebalances of Wisdomtree Emerging Markets (DEM US), Wisdomtree Em Small Cap (DGS US) and Wisdmtree Emerg Mkt Ex-St Ow (XSOE US) will be implemented on 18 October.
There were net outflows from onshore China ETFs with inflows to larger cap ETFs and outflows mainly from the CSI Smallcap 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index trackers.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, TOPIX FFW, SSE50, AS51, ChiNext, Kenedix, Liontown

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Hygon Information Technology C / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SSE 50 and SSE180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our <em>final</em> expectations for potential index changes for SSE 50 and SSE 180 during the December 2023 Rebalance event.</li>
<li>I currently expect 5 ADDs/DELETEs for the SSE 50 index 18 ADDs/DELs for the SSE 180 index. Some of these names are different from my previous expectations.</li>
</ul>


The SSE 50 and SSE180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for potential index changes for SSE 50 and SSE 180 during the December 2023 Rebalance event.
I currently expect 5 ADDs/DELETEs for the SSE 50 index 18 ADDs/DELs for the SSE 180 index. Some of these names are different from my previous expectations.


Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 23: Triple Impact Possible for Hygon Info Tech (688041 CH)

Financial sector veteran, KT Capital Group

Fern Wang

Financial sector veteran

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

<ul>
<li>Central Huijin, the sovereign wealth fund, increased their shareholding of the Big 4 banks in China on 11 October 2023</li>
<li>Contrary to their last similar action, Huijin will increase its stakes in these banks over the next 6 months period, providing stabilizing force of the stock prices </li>
<li>Worries on property sector, LGFV and the overall health of the economy have significantly depressed banking stocks. </li>
</ul>


Central Huijin, the sovereign wealth fund, increased their shareholding of the Big 4 banks in China on 11 October 2023
Contrary to their last similar action, Huijin will increase its stakes in these banks over the next 6 months period, providing stabilizing force of the stock prices 
Worries on property sector, LGFV and the overall health of the economy have significantly depressed banking stocks. 


Huijin’s Increase in Shareholdings of the Big4 May Signal Temporary Bottoming of the Stocks

China

Bank of China Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, foreign currency transaction, fund settlement, and other services. Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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Bank of China (601988 CH)

Bank of China - Surging LDR, Falling NIM, ROE, with Higher Base of Credit Costs/Operating Income

BOC has seen LDR expansion accompanied by narrowing NIM, raising questions on marginal lending. ROE is worsening dramatically, with credit costs...

Daniel Tabbush

Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker (To Oct13): Volatility Up Bigly, Wide Spreads Wider

The Quiddity A-H Monitor, tracking A/H premium positioning, with interactive tables, charts, and trade recommendations. A bad week as pairwise vol...

Travis Lundy

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, TOPIX FFW, SSE50, AS51, ChiNext, Kenedix, Liontown

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 23: Triple Impact Possible for Hygon Info Tech (688041 CH)

Hygon Information Technology C (688041 CH) is an Expected ADD for SSE 50 and SSE 180 according to my estimates. On top of that, it is also an...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Huijin’s Increase in Shareholdings of the Big4 May Signal Temporary Bottoming of the Stocks

Huijin’s increase in shareholdings of the big four banks may signal temporary bottoming of the stocks. Worries remained banks' exposure in property...

Fern Wang

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