Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Hokkoku Financial Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japanese banks have been in a relative sweetspot for a couple of years. Higher rates, higher inflation, more FX volatility, better earnings, stronger buybacks. Cross-holding sales up but not spectacular.</li>
<li>The BOJ may raise rates but Trump Tariff retaliation/mitigation is a question. Elections the next two weeks and earnings the 2-3 weeks after that may keep things a question. </li>
<li>But buybacks should pick up. Lots announced in spring end at or before Q1 earnings. And I expect substantial new buybacks to be announced throughout the from Q1 results on.</li>
</ul>


Japanese banks have been in a relative sweetspot for a couple of years. Higher rates, higher inflation, more FX volatility, better earnings, stronger buybacks. Cross-holding sales up but not spectacular.
The BOJ may raise rates but Trump Tariff retaliation/mitigation is a question. Elections the next two weeks and earnings the 2-3 weeks after that may keep things a question. 
But buybacks should pick up. Lots announced in spring end at or before Q1 earnings. And I expect substantial new buybacks to be announced throughout the from Q1 results on.


[Japan Buybacks] - Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1

<ul>
<li>About 10 days ago I put out a piece saying H1 guidance trends were such that a lot more banks would upgrade guidance before results. </li>
<li>More than two dozen did and the average guidance uplift is VERY high at +59%. The median uplift vs guidance for 35 banks guiding/reporting is +39% for H1. </li>
<li>The big wave of bank earnings is today through late next week. Megas at the end. Stay long banks. Megas. Cheap regionals. </li>
</ul>


About 10 days ago I put out a piece saying H1 guidance trends were such that a lot more banks would upgrade guidance before results. 
More than two dozen did and the average guidance uplift is VERY high at +59%. The median uplift vs guidance for 35 banks guiding/reporting is +39% for H1. 
The big wave of bank earnings is today through late next week. Megas at the end. Stay long banks. Megas. Cheap regionals. 


Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Better and Better

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ insights published in the past two weeks on Smartkarma</li>
<li>In this cut, we compare Japanese insurers versus banks, look at the Chinese EV sector and explore how tariff hikes benefit Asian port operators</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ insights published in the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we compare Japanese insurers versus banks, look at the Chinese EV sector and explore how tariff hikes benefit Asian port operators
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next


Curator's Cut: Japan Insurers Vs Banks, the State of the Chinese EV Sector & Asian Ports in Focus

<ul>
<li>So far, 10 regional banks have upgraded guidance since Q1 results. One of them (Iyogin) twice. The average gain is +71.7% vs original H1 guidance (if we count Iyogin once).</li>
<li>This week will be the big push for new guidance ahead of a flood earnings reports the following week. Election results will cause concern, and the BOJ meets Thursday.</li>
<li>I expect a move in December (positive for banks), but it may be US Fed and $/¥-dependent. In the meantime banks enjoy tailwinds.</li>
</ul>


So far, 10 regional banks have upgraded guidance since Q1 results. One of them (Iyogin) twice. The average gain is +71.7% vs original H1 guidance (if we count Iyogin once).
This week will be the big push for new guidance ahead of a flood earnings reports the following week. Election results will cause concern, and the BOJ meets Thursday.
I expect a move in December (positive for banks), but it may be US Fed and $/¥-dependent. In the meantime banks enjoy tailwinds.


Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance: Interest/Fees ⬆︎, Expenses/Credit Costs⬇︎ - Opportunity Good Still

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On Monday, 30 September, shareholders of US$1.4bn market cap chemicals and housing materials supplier <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aica-kogyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9671:1" rel="noopener">Aica Kogyo (4206 JP)</a> announced a Secondary Share Sale. It's small at 2% of market cap.</li>
<li>The Offering is 2.1mm shares including greenshoe. The company also raised its H1 dividend guidance slightly (¥53/share to ¥56/share) and announced a buyback which should cover 57% of the offering.</li>
<li>It's a small deal. There are a lot more cross-holdings behind that but the company is cash-rich and the company is very cheap/underlevered on an LBO basis.</li>
</ul>


On Monday, 30 September, shareholders of US$1.4bn market cap chemicals and housing materials supplier Aica Kogyo (4206 JP) announced a Secondary Share Sale. It's small at 2% of market cap.
The Offering is 2.1mm shares including greenshoe. The company also raised its H1 dividend guidance slightly (¥53/share to ¥56/share) and announced a buyback which should cover 57% of the offering.
It's a small deal. There are a lot more cross-holdings behind that but the company is cash-rich and the company is very cheap/underlevered on an LBO basis.


Aica Kogyo (4206) - Small Offering Chips Away At Cross-Holdings

Japan

The Bank of Nagoya, Ltd. is a Nagoya based regional bank.  The Bank provides banking services such as deposits, loans, trust funds, and bond issuance.  The Bank of Nagoya also provides financial services such as leasing and credit cards.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bank Of Nagoya (8522 JP)

[Japan Buybacks] - Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1

This is the first of several episodes regarding Japanese Banks. I want to make the size palatable and offer base data and framework with which to...

Travis Lundy

Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Better and Better

This AM has a Nikkei headline saying Japan's 3 megabanks will report ¥2.0trln in Net Profit in H1. That compares to ¥894bn last year, and ¥3.3trln...

Travis Lundy

Curator's Cut: Japan Insurers Vs Banks, the State of the Chinese EV Sector & Asian Ports in Focus

This Curator's Cut issue compares Japanese insurers vs banks amidst rising yields, the state of the Chinese EV sector and how Asian port operators...

Pranav Rao

Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance: Interest/Fees ⬆︎, Expenses/Credit Costs⬇︎ - Opportunity Good Still

10 of about 70 Japanese regional banks have revised guidance for the H1 to end-Sep 2024. The average gain is near 70% vs previous guidance. That's...

Travis Lundy

Aica Kogyo (4206) - Small Offering Chips Away At Cross-Holdings

Aica Kogyo yesterday announced a small secondary offering designed to allow financial cross-holders to start selling down. There more to come...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Japan Buybacks] - Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1

This is the first of several episodes regarding Japanese Banks. I want to make the size palatable and offer base data and framework with which to...

Travis Lundy

Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Better and Better

This AM has a Nikkei headline saying Japan's 3 megabanks will report ¥2.0trln in Net Profit in H1. That compares to ¥894bn last year, and ¥3.3trln...

Travis Lundy

Curator's Cut: Japan Insurers Vs Banks, the State of the Chinese EV Sector & Asian Ports in Focus

​This Curator's Cut issue compares Japanese insurers vs banks amidst rising yields, the state of the Chinese EV sector and how Asian port operators...

Pranav Rao

Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance: Interest/Fees ⬆︎, Expenses/Credit Costs⬇︎ - Opportunity Good Still

10 of about 70 Japanese regional banks have revised guidance for the H1 to end-Sep 2024. The average gain is near 70% vs previous guidance. That's...

Travis Lundy

Aica Kogyo (4206) - Small Offering Chips Away At Cross-Holdings

Aica Kogyo yesterday announced a small secondary offering designed to allow financial cross-holders to start selling down. There more to come...

Travis Lundy

This Curator's Cut issue compares Japanese insurers vs banks amidst rising yields, the state of the Chinese EV sector and how Asian port operators...