Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 constituent change for the IDX30 Index and 2 changes for the IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 30 April.</li>
<li>The largest passive flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago Tbk PT</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-tabungan-negara-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:731:1" rel="noopener">Bank Tabungan Negara Persero</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6061:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Energy</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak-com-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak.com PT Tbk</a>.</li>
<li>There are only 4 days to implementation, so there could be relatively big moves on the changes to the IDX30 Index.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 constituent change for the IDX30 Index and 2 changes for the IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 30 April.
The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Jago Tbk PT, Bank Mandiri Persero, Bank Tabungan Negara Persero, Adaro Energy and Bukalapak.com PT Tbk.
There are only 4 days to implementation, so there could be relatively big moves on the changes to the IDX30 Index.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Few Changes

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Bank valuations have derated, but PBV valuations have yet to hit bottom in the past two downcycles, i.e., 2015-2016 and 2019-2020.</li><li>We see banks continuing to face asset quality risk and tight liquidity, with persistent foreign outflows and local fund position still elevated.</li><li>Maintain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our top pick, followed by BTPS and BRIS given their better CoF and NPL outlooks.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank valuations have derated, but PBV valuations have yet to hit bottom in the past two downcycles, i.e., 2015-2016 and 2019-2020.We see banks continuing to face asset quality risk and tight liquidity, with persistent foreign outflows and local fund position still elevated.Maintain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our top pick, followed by BTPS and BRIS given their better CoF and NPL outlooks.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: Beware of Catching the Falling Knives (NEUTRAL)

<ul><li>An early rate cut may ease liquidity pressure faster, while some loans and marketable securities are at risk of lower yield. </li><li>Banking sector share prices have a high negative correlation with USD/IDR, which could put the sector under selling pressure once again.</li><li>Share price rally provides a window to neutralize position amid our concern on asset quality. We maintain our Neutral rating.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

An early rate cut may ease liquidity pressure faster, while some loans and marketable securities are at risk of lower yield. Banking sector share prices have a high negative correlation with USD/IDR, which could put the sector under selling pressure once again.Share price rally provides a window to neutralize position amid our concern on asset quality. We maintain our Neutral rating.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: Liquidity May Ease Faster, but Stable Rupiah Is Needed for the Rally to Sustain (NEUTRAL)

<ul><li>We expect a moderate earnings growth of 5.8% in FY25F (from 6.7% in FY24F) due to slower loan growth, still tight liquidity, and higher CoC.</li><li>In our view, the biggest risk is higher delinquency as liquidity remains tight, and we expect MSME quality to remain at risk.</li><li>We lowered the sector’s rating to Neutral amid our cautious FY25F outlook, with BBCA remaining as our top pick.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect a moderate earnings growth of 5.8% in FY25F (from 6.7% in FY24F) due to slower loan growth, still tight liquidity, and higher CoC.In our view, the biggest risk is higher delinquency as liquidity remains tight, and we expect MSME quality to remain at risk.We lowered the sector’s rating to Neutral amid our cautious FY25F outlook, with BBCA remaining as our top pick.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: FY25 Outlook: Less money to lend, save, and repay (NEUTRAL)

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BCA is showing a strong rise in its LDR, and this had been an historical concern</li>
<li>Its asset-liability management (ALM) is improving, with NIM moving higher still</li>
<li>No evidence of marked deterioration in credit metrics, provision costs are conservative</li>
</ul>


BCA is showing a strong rise in its LDR, and this had been an historical concern
Its asset-liability management (ALM) is improving, with NIM moving higher still
No evidence of marked deterioration in credit metrics, provision costs are conservative


BCA - Focus on LDR, Which Had Historically Been a Problem, Too Low, With Stable Credit Metrics

Indonesia

PT Bank Tabungan Negara Persero Tbk provides commercial banking services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bank Tabungan Negara Persero (BBTN IJ)

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Few Changes

There is 1 constituent change for the IDX30 and 2 for the IDX80, nothing for the LQ45. Flow and impact are material for the IDX30 index changes.

Brian Freitas

Banks: Beware of Catching the Falling Knives (NEUTRAL)

Bank valuations have derated, but PBV valuations have yet to hit bottom in the past two downcycles, i.e., 2015-2016 and 2019-2020.

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: Liquidity May Ease Faster, but Stable Rupiah Is Needed for the Rally to Sustain (NEUTRAL)

An early rate cut may ease liquidity pressure faster, while some loans and marketable securities are at risk of lower yield.

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: FY25 Outlook: Less money to lend, save, and repay (NEUTRAL)

We expect a moderate earnings growth of 5.8% in FY25F (from 6.7% in FY24F) due to slower loan growth, still tight liquidity, and higher CoC.

BRI Danareksa Research

BCA - Focus on LDR, Which Had Historically Been a Problem, Too Low, With Stable Credit Metrics

BCA is seeing its LDR rise in recent quarters and the rise in 3Q24 alone is even stronger than preceding quarters. Credit metrics remain strong,...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Few Changes

There is 1 constituent change for the IDX30 and 2 for the IDX80, nothing for the LQ45. Flow and impact are material for the IDX30 index changes.

Brian Freitas

Banks: Beware of Catching the Falling Knives (NEUTRAL)

Bank valuations have derated, but PBV valuations have yet to hit bottom in the past two downcycles, i.e., 2015-2016 and 2019-2020.

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: Liquidity May Ease Faster, but Stable Rupiah Is Needed for the Rally to Sustain (NEUTRAL)

An early rate cut may ease liquidity pressure faster, while some loans and marketable securities are at risk of lower yield.

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: FY25 Outlook: Less money to lend, save, and repay (NEUTRAL)

We expect a moderate earnings growth of 5.8% in FY25F (from 6.7% in FY24F) due to slower loan growth, still tight liquidity, and higher CoC.

BRI Danareksa Research

BCA - Focus on LDR, Which Had Historically Been a Problem, Too Low, With Stable Credit Metrics

BCA is seeing its LDR rise in recent quarters and the rise in 3Q24 alone is even stronger than preceding quarters. Credit metrics remain strong,...

Daniel Tabbush

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Few Changes