Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF</a> will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the VanEck Gold Miners ETF will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.
Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.
The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$10.2bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have underperformed the forecast deletes since the last Insight that highlighted the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$10.2bn.
The forecast adds have underperformed the forecast deletes since the last Insight that highlighted the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$10bn

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>5-Year Growth: EBITDA doubled to RMB 72.6 bn; production scaled across copper, gold, and lithium through global M&amp;A and low-cost execution.</li>
<li>Capex Plans: USD 10.4 bn over 5 years across copper, lithium, and gold; includes Zijin Gold International spin-off by late 2025.</li>
<li>Zijin is projected to deliver 19–27% CAGR in EBITDA and net profit through 2026, yet trades at just 6.3x 2025E EV/EBITDA — a notable discount to peers trading at 7–8x</li>
</ul>


5-Year Growth: EBITDA doubled to RMB 72.6 bn; production scaled across copper, gold, and lithium through global M&amp;A and low-cost execution.
Capex Plans: USD 10.4 bn over 5 years across copper, lithium, and gold; includes Zijin Gold International spin-off by late 2025.
Zijin is projected to deliver 19–27% CAGR in EBITDA and net profit through 2026, yet trades at just 6.3x 2025E EV/EBITDA — a notable discount to peers trading at 7–8x


Zijin Mining Group: Undervalued, Diversified, and Scaling Fast

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>With gold being sold down as ETFs unwind their positions, we see a 4000 USD/oz handle (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gold-at-4-500-usd-oz-seven-ideas-to-look-at-in-the-gold-space" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:233477" rel="noopener">Gold At 4,500 USD/Oz: Seven Ideas To Look At In the Gold Space</a> )</li>
<li>Stocks have corrected in line with the gold price, and settled at favorable risk-rewards if one sees gold heading back to 4,500 USD/oz. </li>
<li>We provide a sensitivity analysis of seven names based on investors' calls on the gold price. Our favorite names are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-philippines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40897:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apex-mining-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22952:1" rel="noopener">Apex Mining Co (APX PM)</a> </li>
</ul>


With gold being sold down as ETFs unwind their positions, we see a 4000 USD/oz handle (Gold At 4,500 USD/Oz: Seven Ideas To Look At In the Gold Space )
Stocks have corrected in line with the gold price, and settled at favorable risk-rewards if one sees gold heading back to 4,500 USD/oz. 
We provide a sensitivity analysis of seven names based on investors' calls on the gold price. Our favorite names are OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) / Apex Mining Co (APX PM) 


Gold Price Correction: Six Stocks That Are Dirt Cheap

<ul>
<li>
Revenue / Profit Growth: Revenue +67% YoY to $5.2B; adj. net earnings +173% to $1.65B driven by a 66% higher realized gold price ($4,823/oz) and tight cost discipline.</li>
<li>
North American Barrick IPO: IPO on track for year-end 2026 (late-summer filing, fall public access); minority stake covering NGM, Pueblo Viejo, and Fourmile to list on NYSE and TSX.</li>
<li>
Valuation (FY26e at $45.85): P/E of 9.3x and EV/EBITDA of 4.4x, a material discount to senior gold peers, suggesting meaningful upside at current levels.</li>
</ul>



Revenue / Profit Growth: Revenue +67% YoY to $5.2B; adj. net earnings +173% to $1.65B driven by a 66% higher realized gold price ($4,823/oz) and tight cost discipline.

North American Barrick IPO: IPO on track for year-end 2026 (late-summer filing, fall public access); minority stake covering NGM, Pueblo Viejo, and Fourmile to list on NYSE and TSX.

Valuation (FY26e at $45.85): P/E of 9.3x and EV/EBITDA of 4.4x, a material discount to senior gold peers, suggesting meaningful upside at current levels.


Barrick Mining (B US): Solid Q1 FY26, NGM IPO On Track

Canada

Barrick Gold Corporation is an international gold company with operating mines and development projects in the United States, Canada, South America, Australia, and Africa.

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Barrick Gold (ABX CN)

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

The GDX ETF will change benchmarks at the close on 19 Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8%; round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. Adds...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$10bn

The change in benchmark for GDX should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

Zijin Mining Group: Undervalued, Diversified, and Scaling Fast

In May 2025, Zijin Mining considered halting operations at its Kyzyl-Tashtyg zinc-lead mine in Russia due to sanctions and banking restrictions,...

Rahul Jain

Gold Price Correction: Six Stocks That Are Dirt Cheap

Six gold miners, deep value unlocked. At $4,000/oz, earnings recalibrated — multiples have compressed hard. Great time to explore.

Sameer Taneja

Barrick Mining (B US): Solid Q1 FY26, NGM IPO On Track

Barrick Q1 2026: $5.2B revenue (+67% YoY), adj. EPS $0.98 (+173%), $1.2B attrib. FCF. Record gold price capture. NGM IPO on track YE26. Valuation...

Sameer Taneja

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