HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The spin-off of Zijin for an independent listing is equivalent to presenting a "pure gold business" to the market. Such "asset revaluation" can unlock the hidden value of gold business.</li>
<li>For enterprises like Zijin in the upstream of gold industry chain, a sustained high and rising gold price is usually a significant positive factor. However, there are also potential risks.</li>
<li>Zijin Gold has better growth potential than peers, so we think its valuation range could be P/E of 18-22x. If based on 2025 net profit forecast, valuation is US$36.9-45.1 billion.</li>
</ul>


The spin-off of Zijin for an independent listing is equivalent to presenting a "pure gold business" to the market. Such "asset revaluation" can unlock the hidden value of gold business.
For enterprises like Zijin in the upstream of gold industry chain, a sustained high and rising gold price is usually a significant positive factor. However, there are also potential risks.
Zijin Gold has better growth potential than peers, so we think its valuation range could be P/E of 18-22x. If based on 2025 net profit forecast, valuation is US$36.9-45.1 billion.


Pre-IPO Zijin Gold (PHIP Updates) - Thoughts on the Business, the Forecast and Valuation Outlook

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24628:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)</a>. It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zijin-gold-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:201176" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zijin-gold-ipo-phip-updates-support-the-investment-thesis" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:201970" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold IPO: PHIP Updates Support the Investment Thesis</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn.
I previously discussed the IPO in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and Zijin Gold IPO: PHIP Updates Support the Investment Thesis.
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.


Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In my <a href="https://skr.ma/BdEuy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">June note</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK)</a> appeared fully valued; but I (thankfully) stopped short of being outright bearish. Its share price is up 48% since! </li>
<li>A basket of peers is also up 37% since that note. Gold is up~8%, and 41% YTD. On the 14th September, Zijin released Zijin Gold's PHIP. 1H25 numbers were solid.  </li>
<li>However, Zijin Gold's earnings are by no stretch an outlier. Zijin's Mining's current share price is now baking in exceptional (unrealistic?) metrics for the gold play spin-off. </li>
</ul>


In my June note, Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK) appeared fully valued; but I (thankfully) stopped short of being outright bearish. Its share price is up 48% since! 
A basket of peers is also up 37% since that note. Gold is up~8%, and 41% YTD. On the 14th September, Zijin released Zijin Gold's PHIP. 1H25 numbers were solid.  
However, Zijin Gold's earnings are by no stretch an outlier. Zijin's Mining's current share price is now baking in exceptional (unrealistic?) metrics for the gold play spin-off. 


Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>H1 2025 delivered record profitability, with realized gold prices up 41% YoY to ~US$3,020/oz and production surging 77% to 6.75t, lifting margins to ~US$1,440/oz.</li>
<li>Growth is anchored in the Sepon and Wassa ramp-ups, with optionality from the newly identified SND discovery (maiden reserve expected 2026, potential production from 2027–28).</li>
<li>On 2026E, Chifeng trades at ~8× P/E and ~4.6× EV/EBITDA with &gt;10% FCF yields, offering inexpensive exposure to earnings growth; risks remain around execution at overseas mines, cost pressures etc.</li>
</ul>


H1 2025 delivered record profitability, with realized gold prices up 41% YoY to ~US$3,020/oz and production surging 77% to 6.75t, lifting margins to ~US$1,440/oz.
Growth is anchored in the Sepon and Wassa ramp-ups, with optionality from the newly identified SND discovery (maiden reserve expected 2026, potential production from 2027–28).
On 2026E, Chifeng trades at ~8× P/E and ~4.6× EV/EBITDA with &gt;10% FCF yields, offering inexpensive exposure to earnings growth; risks remain around execution at overseas mines, cost pressures etc.


Chifeng Jilong Gold (600988 CH) – Earnings Step-Change, Valuation Undemanding

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2579355D HK)</a> is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company's past performance, and done a peer comparison in our previous note. In this note, we will provide a PHIP update.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.
We have looked at the company's past performance, and done a peer comparison in our previous note. In this note, we will provide a PHIP update.


Zijin Gold Pre-IPO: PHIP Update: Acquisition of Raygorodok Mine for a Song

Canada

Barrick Gold Corporation is an international gold company with operating mines and development projects in the United States, Canada, South America, Australia, and Africa.

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Barrick Gold (ABX CN)

Pre-IPO Zijin Gold (PHIP Updates) - Thoughts on the Business, the Forecast and Valuation Outlook

Zijin Gold's IPO is priced at HK$71.59, with market value of US$24bn. Such IPO pricing is attractive and leaves decent upside potential for...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights

Zijin Gold has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn. In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price...

Arun George

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): This Is A Short

I can envisage a market cap of US$20-25bn. Maybe US$30bn if pushing PER or EV/EBITDA metrics. $40bn appears unhinged. I'd be shorting Zijin Mining...

David Blennerhassett

Chifeng Jilong Gold (600988 CH) – Earnings Step-Change, Valuation Undemanding

Record profitability in H1 2025 driven by surging gold prices and production, with growth anchored in Sepon and Wassa ramp-ups and potential from...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Gold Pre-IPO: PHIP Update: Acquisition of Raygorodok Mine for a Song

Zijin Gold is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we will provide a PHIP update.

Nicholas Tan

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Pre-IPO Zijin Gold (PHIP Updates) - Thoughts on the Business, the Forecast and Valuation Outlook

Zijin Gold's IPO is priced at HK$71.59, with market value of US$24bn. Such IPO pricing is attractive and leaves decent upside potential for...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights

Zijin Gold has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn. In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price...

Arun George

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): This Is A Short

I can envisage a market cap of US$20-25bn. Maybe US$30bn if pushing PER or EV/EBITDA metrics. $40bn appears unhinged. I'd be shorting Zijin Mining...

David Blennerhassett

Chifeng Jilong Gold (600988 CH) – Earnings Step-Change, Valuation Undemanding

​Record profitability in H1 2025 driven by surging gold prices and production, with growth anchored in Sepon and Wassa ramp-ups and potential from...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Gold Pre-IPO: PHIP Update: Acquisition of Raygorodok Mine for a Song

Zijin Gold is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we will provide a PHIP update.

Nicholas Tan

Record profitability in H1 2025 driven by surging gold prices and production, with growth anchored in Sepon and Wassa ramp-ups and potential from...