Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is approaching 5783, which is the upper-end of an important target/resistance area we have discussed for over a month (5670-5783).</li>
<li>2007 SPX topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping (i.e.,5783)</li>
<li>SPX is "breaking out" which is bullish, but time and time again we have seen bull/bear traps (false breakouts/breakdowns) at major turning points. Bull trap confirmed on break below 5670</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is approaching 5783, which is the upper-end of an important target/resistance area we have discussed for over a month (5670-5783).
2007 SPX topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping (i.e.,5783)
SPX is "breaking out" which is bullish, but time and time again we have seen bull/bear traps (false breakouts/breakdowns) at major turning points. Bull trap confirmed on break below 5670


SPX Bull Trap Setting Up?; Neutral Outlook Intact; Keeping an Open Mind. Buys in Gold Miners

<ul>
<li>Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.</li>
<li>It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).</li>
</ul>


Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).
Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.
It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).


Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

<ul>
<li>We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&amp;P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target/bounce area which we discussed in our 7/30/24 and 8/6/24 Compass reports</li>
<li>We are not out of the woods as we still see the $SPX and $QQQ going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain far from perfect.</li>
<li>Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX top comparisons are why we expected SPX to find support at 5100, AND THEN test YTD highs (8/13/24 Compass report).</li>
</ul>


We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&amp;P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target/bounce area which we discussed in our 7/30/24 and 8/6/24 Compass reports
We are not out of the woods as we still see the $SPX and $QQQ going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain far from perfect.
Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX top comparisons are why we expected SPX to find support at 5100, AND THEN test YTD highs (8/13/24 Compass report).


Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play

<ul>
<li>Recent developments have continued to reinforce our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI).</li>
<li>There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Actionable Themes: 44 individual stock buy recommendations within Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials</li>
</ul>


Recent developments have continued to reinforce our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI).
There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into the early part of 2024.
Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Actionable Themes: 44 individual stock buy recommendations within Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials


Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Overall Bullish Outlook Intact

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Cross Asset Strategy

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Canada

Barrick Gold Corporation is an international gold company with operating mines and development projects in the United States, Canada, South America, Australia, and Africa.

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Barrick Gold (ABX CN)

SPX Bull Trap Setting Up?; Neutral Outlook Intact; Keeping an Open Mind. Buys in Gold Miners

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Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play

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