Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> , post the meteoric rise in its share price since listing last week, is now the most expensive gold miner stocks, globally, on an EV/Reserve basis.</li>
<li>Investor expectations of gold prices climbing higher, driven by the yen’s sharp drop, a U.S. government shutdown, and growing anticipation of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, are fueling the stock.</li>
<li>For Hong Kong investors, Zijin Gold is the only pure-play, globally diversified gold miner, with expectations of index inclusion and strong demand driving its share price above fundamentals.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) , post the meteoric rise in its share price since listing last week, is now the most expensive gold miner stocks, globally, on an EV/Reserve basis.
Investor expectations of gold prices climbing higher, driven by the yen’s sharp drop, a U.S. government shutdown, and growing anticipation of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, are fueling the stock.
For Hong Kong investors, Zijin Gold is the only pure-play, globally diversified gold miner, with expectations of index inclusion and strong demand driving its share price above fundamentals.


Zijin Gold (2259 HK): 100% Surge Since IPO. What Gold Price Is Priced In Now?

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Riding on strong investor demand, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>  has exercised its over-allotment option, boosting the total IPO size to USD 3.7 billion from USD 3.2 billion previously.</li>
<li>As Hong Kong’s only pure-play gold miner with global exposure, Zijin Gold may command a premium, though any sharp price gains still depend on sustained gold price strength.</li>
<li>Investors should define their medium- to-long-term gold price thresholds to shape a clear post-IPO strategy for Zijin Gold.</li>
</ul>


Riding on strong investor demand, Zijin Gold (2259 HK)  has exercised its over-allotment option, boosting the total IPO size to USD 3.7 billion from USD 3.2 billion previously.
As Hong Kong’s only pure-play gold miner with global exposure, Zijin Gold may command a premium, though any sharp price gains still depend on sustained gold price strength.
Investors should define their medium- to-long-term gold price thresholds to shape a clear post-IPO strategy for Zijin Gold.


Zijin Gold : Listing Pop Likely. Know Your Thresholds. Avoid Valuation Pitfalls.

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>Based on DCF model, valuation is about US$28.4 billion. We think this is the valuation bottom line. Conservative investors can take profits at this valuation level.</li>
<li>Valuation has the potential to reach US$34-42bn (or 18-22x P/E ) if based on 2025 forecast.Optimistic investors can choose to wait for stock price to fall within this valuation range. </li>
<li>Considering better profitability/shareholder resources, Zijin Gold has more advantage than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-4527fb98-bb5d-4d74-91fe-66f9c0224eb3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining</a>. Therefore, market value of Zijin Gold will widen the gap with Shandong Gold Mining in the future.</li>
</ul>


Based on DCF model, valuation is about US$28.4 billion. We think this is the valuation bottom line. Conservative investors can take profits at this valuation level.
Valuation has the potential to reach US$34-42bn (or 18-22x P/E ) if based on 2025 forecast.Optimistic investors can choose to wait for stock price to fall within this valuation range. 
Considering better profitability/shareholder resources, Zijin Gold has more advantage than Shandong Gold Mining. Therefore, market value of Zijin Gold will widen the gap with Shandong Gold Mining in the future.


Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO Debut - Some Points Worth the Attention

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> priced its IPO at HK$71.59 per share to raise gross proceeds of approximately US$3.2 billion. The shares will begin trading on September 30.</li>
<li>The IPO was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zijin-gold-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:201176" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zijin-gold-ipo-2259-hk-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:202646" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights</a>.</li>
<li>The market sentiment of the peers has increased since the IPO launch. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) priced its IPO at HK$71.59 per share to raise gross proceeds of approximately US$3.2 billion. The shares will begin trading on September 30.
The IPO was discussed in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights.
The market sentiment of the peers has increased since the IPO launch. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.


Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Copper &amp; Gold Torque: Zijin has crossed US$100bn market cap as copper tops US$10,300/t and gold nears US$3,770/oz, with shares up ~60% in 3M and ~83% in 12M.</li>
<li>Spin-Off Catalyst: Zijin Gold International IPO raised US$3.2bn at HK$71.6/sh; on our quality-weighted view, fair value is ~US$38.5bn EV vs ~US$24bn at IPO.</li>
<li>Valuation Upside: 2027E SOTP points to HK$34.8/sh base (+12%), HK$38–39/sh spot (+25%), and HK$39–41/sh bull (+30%); detailed Zijin Gold valuation in our companion report.</li>
</ul>


Copper &amp; Gold Torque: Zijin has crossed US$100bn market cap as copper tops US$10,300/t and gold nears US$3,770/oz, with shares up ~60% in 3M and ~83% in 12M.
Spin-Off Catalyst: Zijin Gold International IPO raised US$3.2bn at HK$71.6/sh; on our quality-weighted view, fair value is ~US$38.5bn EV vs ~US$24bn at IPO.
Valuation Upside: 2027E SOTP points to HK$34.8/sh base (+12%), HK$38–39/sh spot (+25%), and HK$39–41/sh bull (+30%); detailed Zijin Gold valuation in our companion report.


Zijin Mining: US$100bn Breakout on Copper Surge, Valuation Still Offers Upside

Canada

Barrick Gold Corporation is an international gold company with operating mines and development projects in the United States, Canada, South America, Australia, and Africa.

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Barrick Gold (ABX CN)

Zijin Gold (2259 HK): 100% Surge Since IPO. What Gold Price Is Priced In Now?

Bullish gold expectations, potential index inclusion, limited free float, and strong investor demand pushes Zijin Gold above fundamentals.

Devi Subhakesan

Zijin Gold : Listing Pop Likely. Know Your Thresholds. Avoid Valuation Pitfalls.

Over allotment raises issue size and valuation; post-IPO investment strategy should be guided by your gold price outlook and valuation thresholds....

Devi Subhakesan

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO Debut - Some Points Worth the Attention

Zijin Gold's DCF valuation is US$28.4bn, with potential to reach US$34-42bn based on 2025 forecast. It's highly likely that the market value of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Trading Debut

The market sentiment of the peers has increased since the IPO launch. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.

Arun George

Zijin Mining: US$100bn Breakout on Copper Surge, Valuation Still Offers Upside

Zijin's market cap surpasses US$100bn as copper and gold prices rise, with potential valuation upside and spin-off catalyst from Zijin Gold...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Zijin Gold (2259 HK): 100% Surge Since IPO. What Gold Price Is Priced In Now?

Bullish gold expectations, potential index inclusion, limited free float, and strong investor demand pushes Zijin Gold above fundamentals.

Devi Subhakesan

Zijin Gold : Listing Pop Likely. Know Your Thresholds. Avoid Valuation Pitfalls.

Over allotment raises issue size and valuation; post-IPO investment strategy should be guided by your gold price outlook and valuation thresholds....

Devi Subhakesan

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO Debut - Some Points Worth the Attention

​Zijin Gold's DCF valuation is US$28.4bn, with potential to reach US$34-42bn based on 2025 forecast. It's highly likely that the market value of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Trading Debut

The market sentiment of the peers has increased since the IPO launch. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.

Arun George

Zijin Mining: US$100bn Breakout on Copper Surge, Valuation Still Offers Upside

​Zijin's market cap surpasses US$100bn as copper and gold prices rise, with potential valuation upside and spin-off catalyst from Zijin Gold...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Gold's DCF valuation is US$28.4bn, with potential to reach US$34-42bn based on 2025 forecast. It's highly likely that the market value of...

Zijin's market cap surpasses US$100bn as copper and gold prices rise, with potential valuation upside and spin-off catalyst from Zijin Gold...