Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Northern Star Resources / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.
The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Various prior leadership areas from the April lows appear ready to continue higher following 1+ month consolidations. IGV, PLTR, APP, SOUN, RZLV, SHOP, FROG, U, CDNS, RDDT, JMIA, RR, Z,HIMS,MU,GRAL</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
Short-Term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059.
Various prior leadership areas from the April lows appear ready to continue higher following 1+ month consolidations. IGV, PLTR, APP, SOUN, RZLV, SHOP, FROG, U, CDNS, RDDT, JMIA, RR, Z,HIMS,MU,GRAL


Downgrading Utilities to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Prior Leadership to Shine?

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Zijin Gold is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong this year. A successful IPO of Zijin Gold could fetch as high as US$3 billion in IPO proceeds.</li>
<li>Zijin Gold had sales of US$3.0 billion (up 32.2% YoY) in 2024. Net margin increased from 14.2% in 2023 to 20.8% in 2024. </li>
<li>There has been a sharp increase in the gap between gold AISC (all-in-sustaining cost) and gold price in the past year, leading to higher profit margins of gold producers globally. </li>
</ul>


Zijin Gold is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong this year. A successful IPO of Zijin Gold could fetch as high as US$3 billion in IPO proceeds.
Zijin Gold had sales of US$3.0 billion (up 32.2% YoY) in 2024. Net margin increased from 14.2% in 2023 to 20.8% in 2024. 
There has been a sharp increase in the gap between gold AISC (all-in-sustaining cost) and gold price in the past year, leading to higher profit margins of gold producers globally. 


Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Zijin Mining is spinning off its seven overseas gold mines into Zijin Gold International, creating a dedicated, pure-play gold producer and positioning it for a Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>The IPO proceeds will primarily fund mine upgrades and overseas M&amp;A, with a portion earmarked to reinforce the balance sheet and corporate flexibility.</li>
<li>With media reports suggesting a $3B+ IPO size and potential launch in September, coupled with gold rallying above $3,600/oz, investor appetite around the listing is notably heightened.</li>
</ul>


Zijin Mining is spinning off its seven overseas gold mines into Zijin Gold International, creating a dedicated, pure-play gold producer and positioning it for a Hong Kong IPO.
The IPO proceeds will primarily fund mine upgrades and overseas M&amp;A, with a portion earmarked to reinforce the balance sheet and corporate flexibility.
With media reports suggesting a $3B+ IPO size and potential launch in September, coupled with gold rallying above $3,600/oz, investor appetite around the listing is notably heightened.


Zijin Gold International – Creating a Global Pure-Play Gold Champion

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Gold equities have seen a significant run up in price, with strong earnings being reported in the past few months.</li><li>Despite the increase in gold price, generalist investors have been slow to enter the gold market, causing some skepticism about the sustainability of the price above $3,000.</li><li>However, industry experts believe there is still room for growth in the gold market, with potential for more retail and institutional investors to enter the space and drive margins higher.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Gold equities have seen a significant run up in price, with strong earnings being reported in the past few months.Despite the increase in gold price, generalist investors have been slow to enter the gold market, causing some skepticism about the sustainability of the price above $3,000.However, industry experts believe there is still room for growth in the gold market, with potential for more retail and institutional investors to enter the space and drive margins higher.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Gold Miners That Actually Compound (Greg Orrell)

Canada

Barrick Gold Corporation is an international gold company with operating mines and development projects in the United States, Canada, South America, Australia, and Africa.

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Barrick Gold (ABX CN)

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

The GDX benchmark change is expected to result in 27.4% turnover and a US$12.5bn trade. Multiple days of ADV need to be traded in a lot of stocks....

Brian Freitas

Downgrading Utilities to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Prior Leadership to Shine?

Downgrading Utilities $XLU to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Time for Prior Leadership to Shine? $IGV $PLTR $APP $SOUN $RZLV $SHOP $FROG $U...

Vermilion Research

Zijin Gold IPO Preview

Zijin Gold is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong this year. A successful IPO of Zijin Gold could fetch as high as US$3 billion in IPO...

Douglas Kim

Zijin Gold International – Creating a Global Pure-Play Gold Champion

Zijin Mining to spin off overseas gold mines into Zijin Gold International for Hong Kong IPO, with proceeds funding upgrades, M&A, and bolstering...

Rahul Jain

Gold Miners That Actually Compound (Greg Orrell)

Gold miners are experiencing strong earnings and profit margins due to the rise in gold prices, but generalist investors are slow to enter the gold...

Money of Mine

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

The GDX benchmark change is expected to result in 27.4% turnover and a US$12.5bn trade. Multiple days of ADV need to be traded in a lot of stocks....

Brian Freitas

Downgrading Utilities to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Prior Leadership to Shine?

Downgrading Utilities $XLU to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Time for Prior Leadership to Shine? $IGV $PLTR $APP $SOUN $RZLV $SHOP $FROG $U...

Vermilion Research

Zijin Gold IPO Preview

Zijin Gold is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong this year. A successful IPO of Zijin Gold could fetch as high as US$3 billion in IPO...

Douglas Kim

Zijin Gold International – Creating a Global Pure-Play Gold Champion

​Zijin Mining to spin off overseas gold mines into Zijin Gold International for Hong Kong IPO, with proceeds funding upgrades, M&A, and bolstering...

Rahul Jain

Gold Miners That Actually Compound (Greg Orrell)

Gold miners are experiencing strong earnings and profit margins due to the rise in gold prices, but generalist investors are slow to enter the gold...

Money of Mine

Zijin Mining to spin off overseas gold mines into Zijin Gold International for Hong Kong IPO, with proceeds funding upgrades, M&A, and bolstering...