Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Despite gold hitting record highs this month, ownership of key gold mining stocks among EM managers remains muted.</li>
<li>AngloGold Ashanti and Harmony Gold Mining have both experienced consistent gains in ownership since their 2023 lows.</li>
<li>Oaktree, Overstone and Vontobel EM strategies hold some of the larger portfolio positions in select Gold stocks.</li>
</ul>


Despite gold hitting record highs this month, ownership of key gold mining stocks among EM managers remains muted.
AngloGold Ashanti and Harmony Gold Mining have both experienced consistent gains in ownership since their 2023 lows.
Oaktree, Overstone and Vontobel EM strategies hold some of the larger portfolio positions in select Gold stocks.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments. </li>
<li>The  downward pressure has brought the S&amp;P to the bottom of our range at 5600-5670.</li>
<li>Friday's and Monday's tape action alleviated oversold conditions as strong demand was a clear positive. We need the 5500-5600 level to hold in order to remain constructive.</li>
</ul>


In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments. 
The  downward pressure has brought the S&amp;P to the bottom of our range at 5600-5670.
Friday's and Monday's tape action alleviated oversold conditions as strong demand was a clear positive. We need the 5500-5600 level to hold in order to remain constructive.


S&P 500, NYSE Comp, QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Suggests Local Low at Minimum

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is 0.119 NST shares per DEG share.</li>
<li>The key condition is DEG shareholder approval. Due to the lack of a competing bid, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>, which holds a potentially blocking stake, should support it.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 5 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/18.2%.</li>
</ul>


The De Grey Mining (DEG AU) IE considers Northern Star Resources (NST AU)’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is 0.119 NST shares per DEG share.
The key condition is DEG shareholder approval. Due to the lack of a competing bid, Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), which holds a potentially blocking stake, should support it.
The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 5 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/18.2%.


De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Scheme Vote on 16 April

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> IPO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hulic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:388:1" rel="noopener">Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanrio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16476:1" rel="noopener">Sanrio (8136 JP)</a> placements.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lifestyle-china-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26090:1" rel="noopener">Lifestyle China (2136 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sg-fleet-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13984:1" rel="noopener">Sg Fleet (SGF AU)</a>. 
</li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) IPO, Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) and Sanrio (8136 JP) placements.
Event-Driven developments: ESR Group (1821 HK), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Lifestyle China (2136 HK), Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), De Grey Mining (DEG AU), Sg Fleet (SGF AU). 



Weekly Deals Digest (08 Dec) - ESR, HKBN, Lifestyle China, Seven & I, De Grey, SG Fleet, Kioxia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> entered a binding scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> at 0.119 NST shares per DEG share, implying A$2.08, a 37.1% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>The scheme is conditional on DEG shareholder approval. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>, the largest shareholder, potentially holds a blocking stake and has not provided an irrevocable. </li>
<li>The offer is susceptible to a competing offer as it is all-scrip and unremarkable vs peer multiples. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-gold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Gold (GOLD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agnico-eagle-mines-ltd-8b0f0329-d882-44b2-8bfc-7fe3a15f96b4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38576:1" rel="noopener">Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM US)</a> are potential suitors.</li>
</ul>



De Grey Mining (DEG AU) entered a binding scheme with Northern Star Resources (NST AU) at 0.119 NST shares per DEG share, implying A$2.08, a 37.1% premium to the undisturbed price. 
The scheme is conditional on DEG shareholder approval. Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), the largest shareholder, potentially holds a blocking stake and has not provided an irrevocable. 
The offer is susceptible to a competing offer as it is all-scrip and unremarkable vs peer multiples. Barrick Gold (GOLD US) and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM US) are potential suitors.


De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Northern Star (NST AU)’s All-Scrip Offer Could Draw Out Competing Suitors

United States

Barrick Mining Corporation is a mining company. The Company produces gold and copper, as well as operating mines and development projects. Barrick Mining serves customers worldwide.

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Barrick Mining (B US)

Gold Miners: Off the Radar

Despite gold hitting record highs this month, ownership of key gold mining stocks among active emerging markets managers remains muted.

Steven Holden

S&P 500, NYSE Comp, QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Suggests Local Low at Minimum

$SPX, NYSE Comp $NYA, $QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Friday and Monday Suggests Local Low at Minimum; Since late-Feb discussed an...

Vermilion Research

De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Scheme Vote on 16 April

The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 5 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/18.2%.

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (08 Dec) - ESR, HKBN, Lifestyle China, Seven & I, De Grey, SG Fleet, Kioxia

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (ESR, HKBN, Lifestyle China, Seven & I, De Grey, SG Fleet, Latin Resources) and ECM...

Arun George

De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Northern Star (NST AU)’s All-Scrip Offer Could Draw Out Competing Suitors

The offer is susceptible to a competing offer as it is all-scrip and unremarkable vs peer resource/reserve multiples. Barrick Gold and Agnico Eagle...

Arun George

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