Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Today the results of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data Corp (9613 JP)</a> Tender Offer came out. NTT has 81.75%. I warned of lack of liquidity at that level yesterday <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-event-potentially-interesting-dynamics-of-post-tender-ntt-data-9613-trading-8bn-one-way" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. </li>
<li>Yesterday I proposed that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a> would replace NTT Data in the Nikkei 225 and that the likely timing was the last couple of days of August.</li>
<li>Today, the Nikkei used the June 2020 rule change to announce NTT Data's near-term deletion. Rohm goes in 3 July. 7.5x ADV to buy. $3.8bn a side to trade.</li>
</ul>


Today the results of the NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) Tender Offer came out. NTT has 81.75%. I warned of lack of liquidity at that level yesterday here. 
Yesterday I proposed that ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) would replace NTT Data in the Nikkei 225 and that the likely timing was the last couple of days of August.
Today, the Nikkei used the June 2020 rule change to announce NTT Data's near-term deletion. Rohm goes in 3 July. 7.5x ADV to buy. $3.8bn a side to trade.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Boots NTT Data (9613) Early, Rohm (6963) IN 3 July; $3.8bn a Side

<ul>
<li>The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.</li>
<li>For the moment, that leads me to believe we get ONE ADD and ONE DELETE though up to three of each is possible.</li>
<li>For now, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> capping is off, but there's an ad hoc coming in late Q3 or early Q4 and the Sony Financial spinoff to look forward to.</li>
</ul>


The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
For the moment, that leads me to believe we get ONE ADD and ONE DELETE though up to three of each is possible.
For now, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping is off, but there's an ad hoc coming in late Q3 or early Q4 and the Sony Financial spinoff to look forward to.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL? Kokusai a Question, but 2 Ad Hoc Events Coming

<ul>
<li>The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.</li>
<li>For the moment, that leads me to believe we get ONE ADD and ONE DELETE though up to three of each is possible. </li>
<li>Even with only one name replacement, there are some big side trades and US$3.2bn a side to trade for now.</li>
</ul>


The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
For the moment, that leads me to believe we get ONE ADD and ONE DELETE though up to three of each is possible. 
Even with only one name replacement, there are some big side trades and US$3.2bn a side to trade for now.


Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable, Kokusai a Question but $3bn+ a Side

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s weight in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has increased to 10.81% which will lead to another reduction in the CPAF in September.</li>
<li>Even after the reduction in CPAF and an increase in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting</a>'s PAF in September, there is a possibility of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing</a> being capped again in March 2026.</li>
<li>The continued passive selling sets up interesting trading opportunities after periods of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> outperformance versus the other index constituents.</li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has increased to 10.81% which will lead to another reduction in the CPAF in September.
Even after the reduction in CPAF and an increase in BayCurrent Consulting's PAF in September, there is a possibility of Fast Retailing being capped again in March 2026.
The continued passive selling sets up interesting trading opportunities after periods of Fast Retailing (9983 JP) outperformance versus the other index constituents.


Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.</li>
<li>Kokusai did NOT get added, waiting for a split, an offering, or time to pass. Only one sector change was made. So we see One ADD and One DELETE.</li>
<li>The lack of effort to address sector imbalances within the rules suggests the rules are not as hard as people thought. Intra-review changes could be more interesting in years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
Kokusai did NOT get added, waiting for a split, an offering, or time to pass. Only one sector change was made. So we see One ADD and One DELETE.
The lack of effort to address sector imbalances within the rules suggests the rules are not as hard as people thought. Intra-review changes could be more interesting in years ahead.


Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable Unless Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering/Split

Japan

Baycurrent Inc. offers comprehensive consulting services in a wide variety of industries. The Company provides business strategy consulting, information technology consulting, information technology integration, and other services. Baycurrent provides its services throughout Japan.

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Baycurrent (6532 JP)

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Boots NTT Data (9613) Early, Rohm (6963) IN 3 July; $3.8bn a Side

The Nikkei has used June 2020 rule change language to boot NTT Data earlier than expected. It makes sense. Expect this is new precedent. Rohm is...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL? Kokusai a Question, but 2 Ad Hoc Events Coming

The Nikkei 225 Sep rebal has just 0.6% of its data window left. Rankings are basically fixed. Fastie capping depends on next 6wks. I see 1 Add/Del;...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable, Kokusai a Question but $3bn+ a Side

Sep25 Nikkei 225 rebal has 3mos to go for data but it's mostly decided. The questions remaining are less about ranks, and more about rules. I'm...

Travis Lundy

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)

Fast Retailing will be capped in September unless the stock underperforms the index over the next 3 months. There could be more capping next March....

Brian Freitas

Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable Unless Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering/Split

The Nikkei 225 Rebal for Sep 2025 is less interesting than it could be because it appears the Nikkei index team isn't following their own rules....

Travis Lundy

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