Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15457:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) (9501 JP)</a> trade is to short or long-sell into exuberance. Shorts should wait until the pump exhausts itself (or appears to).</li>
<li>At 0.34x forward P/B, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a> is cheap. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a> at 0.33x is also inexpensive. But HK IP drags. Ger exposure to the stub.</li>
<li>Elliott sees <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-o-s-k-lines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20717:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (9104 JP)</a> as undervalued. Best to be long than short on an outright basis, but there is not a lot of detail out there yet.</li>
</ul>


The Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) (9501 JP) trade is to short or long-sell into exuberance. Shorts should wait until the pump exhausts itself (or appears to).
At 0.34x forward P/B, Swire Pacific (19 HK) is cheap. Swire Properties (1972 HK) at 0.33x is also inexpensive. But HK IP drags. Ger exposure to the stub.
Elliott sees Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (9104 JP) as undervalued. Best to be long than short on an outright basis, but there is not a lot of detail out there yet.


Last Week In Event SPACE: TEPCO, Swire, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines. CK Hutchison

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> runs a software quality assurance testing business. 400% revenue growth in 5 years, but this year to Aug25 is "only" 17.5% according to Q3 results guidance.</li>
<li>It was a "growth stock" for a long while, and large long-only growth investors flocked to the name. In the past several months many have exited. </li>
<li>The stock will be included in the Nikkei 225 Average next Tuesday. The supply/demand dynamics here to there are interesting. Afterwards they may be more interesting.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) runs a software quality assurance testing business. 400% revenue growth in 5 years, but this year to Aug25 is "only" 17.5% according to Q3 results guidance.
It was a "growth stock" for a long while, and large long-only growth investors flocked to the name. In the past several months many have exited. 
The stock will be included in the Nikkei 225 Average next Tuesday. The supply/demand dynamics here to there are interesting. Afterwards they may be more interesting.


Shift (3697 JP) - Short-Selling into Nikkei 225 Inclusion = Crowded Register Dynamic = Squeezy

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
 <li>
Exceptional Growth Trajectory: BayCurrent has demonstrated a remarkable and consistent track record of high growth, significantly outpacing the Japanese consulting industry average. Its revenue and net income have seen impressive compound annual growth rates over the past decade, driven by strong demand for digital transformation services.</li>
 <li>
Strategic Position in a Growing Market: The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the accelerating trend of digital transformation (DX) and IT modernization within Japanese corporations. A traditionally underserved market, Japan's increasing adoption of consulting services presents a substantial runway for growth.</li>
 <li>
Positive Market Momentum: Forthcoming inclusion in the Nikkei 225 index is expected to create significant passive buying pressure, providing a strong near-term catalyst for the stock. This technical tailwind is supported by a robust financial performance and a strong market position.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  
Exceptional Growth Trajectory: BayCurrent has demonstrated a remarkable and consistent track record of high growth, significantly outpacing the Japanese consulting industry average. Its revenue and net income have seen impressive compound annual growth rates over the past decade, driven by strong demand for digital transformation services.
  
Strategic Position in a Growing Market: The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the accelerating trend of digital transformation (DX) and IT modernization within Japanese corporations. A traditionally underserved market, Japan's increasing adoption of consulting services presents a substantial runway for growth.
  
Positive Market Momentum: Forthcoming inclusion in the Nikkei 225 index is expected to create significant passive buying pressure, providing a strong near-term catalyst for the stock. This technical tailwind is supported by a robust financial performance and a strong market position.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: BayCurrent Consulting  (6532 JP) - Sep 2025

<ul>
<li>Every year it's the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Friday and Monday. Or not. Historically, the day before ex-date and ex-date see outright performance.</li>
<li>The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone. This year they have gone well for equities, so odds are flows are smaller.</li>
<li>Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. The September trade appears to be more mixed. </li>
</ul>


Every year it's the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Friday and Monday. Or not. Historically, the day before ex-date and ex-date see outright performance.
The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone. This year they have gone well for equities, so odds are flows are smaller.
Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. The September trade appears to be more mixed. 


The 2025 Japan September-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

Index Rebalance

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Index Rebalance

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

<ul>
<li>Today, the results of the Nikkei 225 Sep2025 Periodic Review were announced, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-index-nikkei-225-sep25-review-shift-3697-in-citizen-watch-7762-out-kokusai-misses" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:200727" rel="noopener">[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses</a>. </li>
<li>That means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy. </li>
<li>It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. As always, more below the fold!</li>
</ul>


Today, the results of the Nikkei 225 Sep2025 Periodic Review were announced, discussed in [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses. 
That means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy. 
It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. As always, more below the fold!


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Leaderboards; Probably One IN, One OUT

Japan

Baycurrent Inc. offers comprehensive consulting services in a wide variety of industries. The Company provides business strategy consulting, information technology consulting, information technology integration, and other services. Baycurrent provides its services throughout Japan.

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Baycurrent (6532 JP)

Last Week In Event SPACE: TEPCO, Swire, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines. CK Hutchison

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Shift (3697 JP) - Short-Selling into Nikkei 225 Inclusion = Crowded Register Dynamic = Squeezy

There has been a lot of new shorting as SHIFT lost momentum since July. The Nikkei 225 inclusion reduces Max Float. Current short interest vs...

Travis Lundy

Primer: BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) - Sep 2025

Exceptional Growth Trajectory: BayCurrent has demonstrated a remarkable and consistent track record of high growth, significantly outpacing the...

αSK Primers

The 2025 Japan September-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

Every year (every half year) it is the same trade. Dividend reinvestment for passive funds. This September it "should" be ¥2trln+ but it will...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Leaderboards; Probably One IN, One OUT

The Sep25 Nikkei 225 Periodic Review is announced. That means the Mar26 review can be predicted with a fair bit of accuracy. I see one ADD one...

Travis Lundy

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